Jack it up now or pop him on the turn?

[Vehn]

$15/$30. OK/reasonable but a bit overpassive opponent limps UTG. I limp next to him with http://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/kc.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/tc.jpg. Folded to the wacky button who raises. I don't know what this means. Both blinds fold.

Flop:

http://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/qc.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/9c.jpghttp://img.ranchoweb.com/images/vehn23/8c.jpg

UTG checks, I bet, button calls, UTG checkraises. See title.

[OrangeHeat]

I would say jack it up now. He could have a number of hands up front like JcTo (if he is a loosey) and thinks his straight is good or he could be pushing something like AcX - hopefully its not AcXc. I think he most likely limped with a smallish (88, 99) pair and has a set/ maybe 98s for two pair. Either way I think he is more than likely behind with outs to improve - charge him now.

If he is overplaying any draw you need to charge him now. If the button is a maniac or "wacky" as you describe" he may be coming along for the extra bets with something as weak as top pair, lower straight draw, or lower flush draw. If UTG caps it and he is "passive" I would have to start giving more thought to him have AcXc and consider just calling on turn.

This is a situation with a coordinated board where some people will overvalue their draws and are willing to peel one off - why give them the chance to do it cheaply? And why risk giving this nice pot away to someone holding the bare Ac when another club drops off on the turn or to someon who fills up on the turn/river (catastrophe)?

So to sum up the benefits:

1. You have "wacky" button who will call most likely.
2. If you get capped by the "passive" it should define his hand.
3. CHARGE the draws and the miracle hunters - I never slowplay these anymore too much too risk.

I am new here so all advice is up for scrutiny and flaming /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Adam

[Magikist]

I'd call UTG hoping the wacky button will call one more. Do you gain anything by driving the wacky button off on the flop? Perhaps, if he holds Ac. But I'd rather drive him out when a brick hits on the turn and you raise after UTG leads out.

I also believe there is value in simply betting and calling a raise on the flop. Hopefully, this deception will make it more difficult for your opponent(s) to put you on a hand, and thus they will pay you off.

[sam h]

Jack it up now. Although you probably have the button drawing dead, wacky buttons will often not realize this and call anyway.

Plus, if the EP has outs you're charging him more. And if he has a lower flush or a made straight or set and doesn't believe he's behind, then you may get a four-bet on the flop and opportunity to raise the turn.

I think the upside on raising here is just too high to pass up.

[Rushmore]

Do you gain anything by driving the wacky button off on the flop? Perhaps, if he holds Ac

"Wacky button" ain't folding the nut flush draw.

[Rushmore]

I like everything in your post except

And why risk giving this nice pot away to someone holding the bare Ac when another club drops off on the turn or to someon who fills up on the turn/river (catastrophe)?

because if they're not going anywhere with these hands (which seems to be the case), "making them pay" is only a matter of principle. If they suck out, they win more. So in a case where all indications are that you ain't losing anyone, the "make them pay" argument doesn't apply (would you want to "make them pay" if your odds of winning the pot were worse than 2-1?).

Only the EV argument matters here.

Which looks to me like a raise on the flop, right?

[bigfishead]

Turn, Button called 2 cold. NP. make him call 2 cold again. U have position on the flop re-raiser. Call planning on raiseing any turn card. Play it out from there.

[Bandorn]

I agree. U said it better than I could and have saved me the truoble. Thanks Orangeheat.

[Bandorn]

Someone holding the Ac,Xo here is getting great odds (pot and implied) to chase and should. From his perspective he got just under 50% shot to hit his hands. From Kc,Tc holders perspective he nows that its even less for the lone Ac to flush out.Theres only 7 clubs left out of 47 cards. Odds of (1 in 5.7 on the turn)(1 in 5.5 on river) So the flush holder is roughly about a 2.8 to 1 favorite to stay ahead. So betting and charging the chasers is positive Ev for him. The chaser is correct to chase. But the holder of the flush is more correct to make him pay.

[mike l.]

"Only the EV argument matters here."

my experience is that the way to max your EV here against players you play against regularly is to alternate playing fast on the flop with slowplaying until the turn and even the river, depending only somewhat on who the players are and how much action they give on later streets. and your bluffs should maintain the same sort of mix-up. if the players you are against are paying any sort of attention and remembering anything this will confuse the holy living hell out of them.

if i were playing at a table full of 2+2ers i would take their flop bets and raises on scary boards pretty seriously and slow down accordingly. there is a tendency among posters here to play very big hands like a flopped second nut flush too fast on the flop and play it that way all the time.

[cero_z]

Hi vehn,
I disagree with most (all?) of the posters on this: I say call and go for the overcall (absolute certainty) or possible re-raise (possibility) from the button. Then, I go to war on the turn, provided the board doesn't pair and a club doesn't fall. I think you will better define both opponents' hands on the turn, and you may very well not be that far ahead. Wait for a safe card on the turn.

[MrGo]

How does the holder of Ac,Xx have good implied odds? It's quite obvious if a player calls 2 blind (perhaps more) bets what he has.

I think his implied odds here are not good at all. A 4th club falls, not saying the other two players won't call his bet/raise, but it's obvious what he has.

[Rushmore]

Absolutely well-stated.

My only point is that I so often hear the "make them pay for their draws" mantra that I believe sometimes folks are disregarding what's mathematically sound.

[34TheTruth34]

In this situation, I think it's best to call the check-raise and then raise the turn. If he has a the only hand that beats you, then he's gonna win a big pot. You definitely don't want the third player folding here.

The only thing that worries me is that a player you described as overpassive is check-raising you on a suited board. Almost all of the players that I would describe as overpassive that I know would almost always need the nut flush to do this. I'm talking about lower limit players, though, I'm assuming that at 15/30, this wouldn't necessarily be the case.

[iblucky4u2]

I can't believe that the concensus here is to "make 'em pay" when there is a good likelyhood that vehn is already behind to the "overpassive." Maybe the play is to "Jack it up" now (sounds like the Jc is coming on the turn to make him the str8-flush) but (in my old age) I would be calling the UTG and hoping that my K flush stands up or the Jc hits.

[Magikist]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the wacky button improve to a flush by the river less than 20% of the time in this situation?
How is it wrong to make him "pay for his draw" when he's willing to put more money in on a hand for which he expects to win only occasionally?
When he's forced to invest more money in a pot with only two other contributors, isn't it more incorrect to call?
If I am wrong, please set me straight.
Thanks

[Bandorn]

A holder of Ac,Xx with no knowledge of the other made flush here. Improves by the river roughly 48%. At the turn he has 9 good cards to 38 bad (47 unseen cards) 1 to 4.2 odds he improves here 23.8%. At river he has 9 outs to 37 (46 unseen cards) 1 to 4.1 odds he improves here 24.4%. ITs the combined odds of 2 cards to come that make this a killer play.

With knowledge of a made flush against him. He has 7 outs to 40 (1 to 5.7 odds) he improves 17.5% on turn. At river he has 7 outs to 39 ( 1 to 5.6) he improves 17.9%. He improves by the river 35.4%

Ok,thats how I understand it. If I got it wrong somebody please correct me.

[Bandorn]

I make 11sb at Desion Piont (DP). If button holds Ac,Xx. Then a raise here has a probable betting pattern of DP-raise, button calls, UTG calls ( UTG probable hands is 2pair,set,Straight and lower flush). Turn- UTG checks, Flush holder bets, Button calls, UTG calls. River at least 1 bet and 1 caller. IT costs button only 2bb to see river from DP. I make it 13bb at show down 3 of which is buttons (river bet by button is value bet, not part of implied odds) so he getting 2 to 10 implied odds to chase. Button thinks he 1 in 2 dog, but with the made flush he is actually 1 in 2.8 dog. Still good implied odds for chasing.

If at DP flush holder calls then raises turn. Betting pattern is DP- Call,button calls. Turn- UTG bets, Flush holder raises, Button calls, UTg calls. River at least 1 bet and 1 caller. Button pays 2.5bb to see river. 14.5bb at showdown. 3.5bb are button. So his implied odds 2.5 to 11(1 to 4.4).

[Bandorn]

Never play poker when yuor to tired to think and should be in bed. I guess that goes for posting too.I Still like what yuo said Orangeheat. But yuor EV play is best.

Call the Flop C/R. Raise the turn bet if no flush card hits. call it down to river if it does. Fold if betting war starts between Utg and Button when and if a flush card and board pairs up on river.

I read UTG as having flopped Straight,small flush, 2 pair or set. If he had a made Nut straight he would waite till turn to C/R.

Note that if Button got Ac,Xx and UTG got a set. Flush holder is no longer the favorite to win at flop. If he survives flop he becomes favorite at turn.

[bushky]

Have you figured in the odds if the club that might come up is the one making the straight flush?

bushky

[Bandorn]

NO I did not. A magor over site too. It makes the Ac,Xx holder a 6 to 41 (1 to 6.8) dog on turn he catches a good card 16% here. At river he a 6 to 40 (1 to 6.7) About 15%.
So he got about a 30% chance to catch a winning flush Hand. Odds of 1 to 3.4.

If Flush hand calls at DP the Ac holder is getting 12 to 1 pot odds. If Flush hand raises at DP the Ac holder is getting 13 to 2 (6.5 to 1) pot odds, Effective pot odds of 14 to 2 (7 to 1). His implied pot odds are as mentioned previosly. But how his 1 in 7 shot of catching the flush card that Destroys him( Makes the flush holder a straight flush) factors in reducing his implied odds is Beyond me yet. I think it reduces everything by 17%. Making chasing the nut flush a marginal play, Especially as Mp straight flush holder should garner 2 or more extra bets.

But the Ac holder will not learn any of this till river.