Pot Limit HoldEm with a WPT maniac

[Riverman]

This hand came up in a Pot Limit HoldEm game last night at the Borgata. The blinds were 10-15, and I am playing a relatively short stack of 1100. Anyway, I limp in late position with KQo, and get raised by a tournament pro who plays many, many hands and is very tough to read. He has about 10k on the table after exploiting his maniacal image to win huge pots with legit hands. That said, he does a lot of bluffing. Anyway, he makes it 70 to go from the button and I call. I forget exactly how many players, I think it was 4.

Flop comes down QJJ rainbow. Checked to me, I bet 100. Pro raises to 500. I go in to the tank and just dont know what to do. If I play, I'm guaranteed top be committing my whole stack against this opponent. What's my play?

[scrub]

Hey Dave--

Not sure if you got my PM so I figured I'd try replying to your post. And also express my surprise that you were playing big bet poker. I always interpreted your not coming to the Tower game as a preference for limit.

I'm going to AC tonight--you going to be there?

As for the hand, I'd avoid calling preflop raises against aggressive players with KQo when playing big bet. Unless you've got a gigantic bankroll and a very good read, you're never going to know what to do when you hit top pair and they set you in.

How did it turn out?

[Zag]

This much I can say confidantly: You should either fold or raise all in.

You bet $100 at a $280 pot, so his raise is a little less than pot-sized. (You'd be calling $400 to win $880.) By game theory, he should be bluffing less than a third of the time when he makes this bet. If you think he would bluff this more often, you should call, if less often, you should fold. If you have no idea, or you think he is right around 1/3, you should call 2/3 of the time.

Now that I've written at that game theory nonsense, I realize that it doesn't apply because neither his bet nor your call would be all in. I'm not completely sure how game theory would take this into account. From his point of view, I guess the upside and downside of a bluff doesn't change, because he will just fold if you raise. However, if he has some sort of draw (AK gives him 7 outs) then a bluff has even more positive value.

Also, I haven't taken the other players into account. What if one of them has QJ and is currently drooling? At least take a glance at them and fold if you can get a good read that one of them is too eager. (Or have they both already folded?)

Otherwise, I think you should have planned better. Before you made your smallish bet, you should have considered what you were going to do in this situation. Is this the same bet you would have made if you had QQ? I suspect not. In that case, your bet just invited him to bluff at you. If it is the same bet you would have made, then all your betting so far is consistant with QQ. He concievably will lay down a bad jack or an AA if you push in on him.

Is he aggressive enough that he can be counted on to bet if checked to? In that case, checking, planning to check-raise any bet by him might have been a better option on the flop. Of course, no one who is any good is that predictable, so I supposed that option was out.

Anyway, the bottom line is that I would decide that I call about half of the time (a little less than game theory, but I'm a bit variance-averse) and I would use the glance-at-watch trick to make my decision. Of course, I would push all in rather than just call. Hmmmm. Unless I think he might bluff again.

[sam h]

Riverman,

I think you're screwed. I would probably fold, but it would depend upon my read and my gut instinct at the table.

I must say, however, that you created this problem unnecessarily for yourself. Why did you call the preflop raise? You have a holding that can be easily dominated, a tough aggressive opponent, and no position. He might be running over the table, but you have to pick your battles.

On the flop, against this type of player I don't think making that 100 bet is a good idea. You're basically just declaring, "I have a piece of that, but not that much." So when he comes over the top, he still could have nothing.

If you want to get involved on this flop, why not check to him, get your read on what he does, see the other players' actions to make sure neither was slowplaying a J, and then reraise big if its heads up and you think he's weak? You might even get him to fold some hands that beat you.

[Mike Gallo]

Riverman,

I was in the same room playing $3-$6 at the time. I heard about this hand. The guys name was Paul and he won with Q6.

He hit his running 6's and won the hand.

Not much you can do, he has no fear.

You will have to take more money off of Pete./images/graemlins/grin.gif
~MG~

[J.A.Sucker]

You made lots of mistakes with this hand already. The original limp is fine, but once he makes it 70, then you should fold. You don't really have much of a stack, nor much of a hand.

Once you played, then you screwed up on the flop, IMO. The 100 bet is a nothing bet in this pot. The pot has ~ 280 ( depending on the blinds). You have a short stack of 1000 behind. Underbetting a third of the pot is chicken, and you're just asking to be moved off the hand. I think that you just need to bet about 250 and see what happens. If the pro moves you in, you should consider calling. If anyone else decides to tangle, then you have a decision.

As it went down, I think you should reraise all-in. Make him make a decision. This isn't even close, IMO.

[tewall]

Given your description of the player, re-raise all-in. He's surely better than 2 to 1 to be bluffing, especially after you've shown weakness with your small bet.

[Riverman]

Although my opponent's name was paul, you got the hands mixed up. This table did indeed produce some memorable hands however. The only hand you could be referring to was one in which one player held Q6 against 55 when the flop was 566.

The action at the table was truly remarkable at times, with one pot of over $1000 being chopped by two players holding 56o in a board of AQ5xx. In another hand, a player smooth called a bet of $1000 with queen high thinking his hand was good (it was). I walked away from the table with no doubt that pot-limit is the form of poker that requires more skill and guts than any other.

Anyway, I folded my hand and cursed myself for misplying it both preflop and on the flop (as most of you have done). Thanks for the comments.

[Mike Gallo]

Although my opponent's name was paul, you got the hands mixed up.

Ok, then you made a good fold.

I walked over to the table a few times. I had on a blue cap had glasses and a goatee. I spoke with Paul several times at the table. Did you sit in the 7 or 8 seat?

If he made a bet that large, he had you beat. He had the Queen beat. He plays wild because he reads players and hands very well.

He tore that game apart again tonight. He was up $2500 when I left about an hour ago. Although he plays like a "maniac" he plays like Doyle Brunson instructs in his No limit section of Super System. It appears that he gets lucky however he plays so well post flop, I attribute it to skill.

~MG~

[cero_z]

Hi Riverman,
You should fold and change seats. If that's not possible, you should probably get out of the game. The pro will make it too tough for you to pick up pots, because he'll never be too worried about losing 1000 to you in a pot. His play will be fearless, and your stack size indicates you can't afford to be. More importantly, you won't be able to stay out of confrontations with him, as he'll be playing lots of pots, and of course he's immediately on your left. So get across the table from him, if the game's so good that you want to be there.
Incidentally, I had a similar experience recently, playing in a very loose PL HE home game in Madison, WI. I had a maniac gambler who'd been running very hot for 2 weeks on my right, and the Poker Brat on my immediate left. Both Hellmuth and this kid had 6000+ on the table, and I felt that even with the bad seat, the kid's action (along with that of 2 other poor players around the table) justified me being there. I bought in for 1000, and ended up losing about 4000. Didn't run good, but was constantly caught between the 2 main players in this game, who were after each other's stacks, and weren't too concerned with mine. Also, I played 2 hands where I lost the max, because Hellmuth was the one with the best hand and he played them better than my other opponents would've. One was QQ vs. KK, where he was able to get me all-in pre-flop (I definitely played it badly). The other was a 3-handed contest between me, guess who and guess who. AsKs for me, A9 for Phil, flush draw for the kid, flop Ah Ad 9h. Again, many players would not have called my pre-flop raise with A9o, but Phil was right to do it against only me and the kid, position, and enough chips to bust either of us. So make it easy on yourself and don't get in every hand with this guy, unless you have about 300 or as many chips as him in front of you.

[Riverman]

I switched seats many times, but I was the youngest player in the game by 20 years, so that should make things easy.

[bigmiiiiike]

WHAT A FISH PLAY!! Dude, if you're gonna be super pot limit player, you've gotta check raise him on the flop if you sense weakness, you might be screwed but thats the strong play, go with your read. I am so much better than you at poker its not even funny /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[scrub]

We can't all be superplayers Mike... And at least Dave called with a kicker...:)

scrub