Call or Fold 89s?

[valueplayer]

Very loose and aggressive 20-40 game. UTG limps, UTG+1 limps, MP raises, 2 more callers, you are on the button with 89s, and you know most likely the small/big blinds will also call. What would you do? why and why not would be helpful. Thanks in advance.

[Paul Talbot]

I don't think it matters too much, but I would lean towards folding. With this many people in for a raise there are a lot of hands with T to A in them which means that you are vulnerable to a higher straight when JT is on the board. you can discount your flush outs a bit too in a pot this large.

But mostly I'd fold because it's very unlikely you will get to see the turn for one bet on the flop so you're looking at a minumum of a 2 big bet investment if you do pick up a draw and you have a hand that can hit it's draw and still come in second.

Regards,

Paul

[pudley4]

Easy fold.

In an aggressive game, you could be raised by the blinds, or limp-reraised by one of the EP players, so it may cost you more bets just to see the flop. You may also face several bets on the flop when all you have is a draw.

If you had 55 here it's any easy call.

[nykenny]

People who will fold are wrong. CALL 100% of the time. Only hands i like better in your spot would be AA and JTs... I mean come on! 2 limper + 1 raiser + 2 cold caller + 2 blinds + u = 8 way pots with at least 3 quality hands... it gets no better than this.

if u don't play 89s in here, then don't play them period! a 67Q board or a 7JK board will get you a lot of action... and your flush might just be good. plus all those trip and two pairs u will get...

MUST CALL or RAISE!

[SoBeDude]

[ QUOTE ]
People who will fold are wrong. CALL 100% of the time. Only hands i like better in your spot would be AA and JTs... I mean come on! 2 limper + 1 raiser + 2 cold caller + 2 blinds + u = 8 way pots with at least 3 quality hands... it gets no better than this.

if u don't play 89s in here, then don't play them period! a 67Q board or a 7JK board will get you a lot of action... and your flush might just be good. plus all those trip and two pairs u will get...

MUST CALL or RAISE!

[/ QUOTE ]

I think playing 89s for 2 bets here is a mistake. You're not going to make a winning hand here often enough to justify calling 2 cold preflop. Then there is the issue of implied odds, which are in trouble now.

Additionally, its going to get expensive for you to get to the river, and even if you do make your hand, you can easily lose to a bigger one.

you have 89s, and the EP raiser has AJs of the same suit. how much money are you going to lose when the flush gets there?

And what happens when you flop top pair. you have a 9, crap kicker. what if someone called with A9s?

easy fold

-Scott

[J.A.Sucker]

Hey VP,

I love the button, more than most people will realize, and I'm inclined to play many hands here. However, it's close in this case, mainly because your position vs the raiser & the field puts you squarely in the middle. Ironically, if UTG raised (which usually means a better hand) and there were some callers, then I'd like your hand better, since you know that you can leverage your position more. Also, if there were many limpers and a raise on your immediate right, you could swing a play if you wanted, since you can expect him to be checked to and bet first in a lot, and you can clear out the field with a raise if you hit. As it is, you might flop a hand that's marginal, such as a backdoor flush or backdoor straight draw, and have it be one bet to you, which would indicate a play, but then when you call, it may be checkraised behind you. This is the main problem, IMO, and not something that people have discussed. Worrying about your kicker, as others have pointed out, is wrong, since you've got to go to the river anyway if you flop a pair in such a large pot. At best, this is a high-variance play that might have some value, but I'd just muck it and go get a cup of coffee instead. Any pair would be a much better hand, since they play themselves after the flop.

[tpir90036]

even though you have the requisite # of players, i like to play these hands for one bet since there is (generally) a greater chance of getting to see the turn for one bet if i flop a huge draw. i will leave the actual EV of the play to the more math oriented amongst us.

[BookOfIcculus]

[ QUOTE ]
Additionally, its going to get expensive for you to get to the river, and even if you do make your hand, you can easily lose to a bigger one.

[/ QUOTE ]
Yes but you only should go to the river if you have a very good hand your 2pair or better(most likely only flush or strait).
[ QUOTE ]
you have 89s, and the EP raiser has AJs of the same suit. how much money are you going to lose when the flush gets there?

[/ QUOTE ] If you can tell the diffence between a nut flush bet and everything else you should be ok here. You have gr8 position.
[ QUOTE ]
And what happens when you flop top pair. you have a 9, crap kicker. what if someone called with A9s?

[/ QUOTE ] I wouldn't be calling with top pair only. I would want some sort of a draw in addition to be calling with top pair(ie Flush or Str8)

With all that said folding isn't a bad play as you are surely not the favorite to win the hand, but are more likely in a close tie with 4-5 other hands for 3rd favorite. I just choose to play hands that I think will win money in the long run. You will win about 10-15% of these hands and you should know on the flop where you stand. Making it easy to get away from.

[Tommy Angelo]

I would only fold if I had just lost a pot or two. When playing, I would reraise about one out of three times.


Tommy

[Vehn]

WTF? Call. Its not close.

[Mike Gallo]

Hence his overlay and what he does differently than his opponents. The same with NYKenny.

As for what I would do, I would probably fold. However I dont play as well as Tommy or NYKenny does.

Cutting edge answer Tommy /images/graemlins/cool.gif


~MG~

[Jeffage]

I would call the $40 here without a second thought. If you play poker well, you will not get trapped and you have a multiway hand (and the button) which will pay off big if it hits.

Jeff

[DanZ]

Clearly, how you have done in recent hands is the overriding factor in deciding how to play drawing hands in a large 6 way pot from the button.

Your table imagae and its impact on your ability to steal the pot are by far the most important considerations in such hands.

[Tommy Angelo]

"Your table image and its impact on your ability to steal the pot are by far the most important considerations in such hands."

Maybe I should be more ambitious. It wouldn't even occur to me to enter a sixway raised pot with the hope of running a bluff.

Tommy

[Ulysses]

Is this you guys?

when sarcasm meets sarcasm (http://miscellanea.diaryland.com/020905_75.html)

Tommy - long time.... You should stop by some Friday night. That's my AJ's night these days....

[34TheTruth34]

I may be wrong about this because I see a lot of good and very good players who make this call, but personally, I don't like paying 2 bets preflop for this trash. Basically, what I am trying to say is:

limping in mulitway pot and calling a raise = fine
calling 2 cold preflop = bad

even if both situations had exactly the same number of players in for exactly the same number of bets, I still don't like the second situation. As a matter of fact, I'd rather limp in UTG with 98s in a loose passive game than calling a raise cold with it on the button in the type of game you describe.

But since there are quite a few players who play A LOT BETTER than me who would make this call, I may be wrong.

[Vehn]

Why? Because conventional forum wisdom says "dont call raises cold"?

[Diplomat]

[ QUOTE ]
WTF? Call. Its not close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Damnit Vehn, you got to say the "...and it's not close" part first. I always like saying that. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

I think it's a call, and sometimes a raise. The better your opponents play, the more I think it looks like a raise. Does that make sense?

-Diplomat

[Zeno]

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what if

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Do you recall the story of the poker playing that anted himself to death? Don't fall into the same trap.

Call. It's going to be a fun hand to play.

-Zeno

[Buckshot]

[ QUOTE ]
And what happens when you flop top pair. you have a 9, crap kicker. what if someone called with A9s?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I would call the floor and immediately accuse my opponent of cheating and flog him to death since there would be two 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif in the deck!

~stephen

[RollaJ]

I think its an easy call and a great hand to be holding at that point. Dont forget the added feeling you get from winning the $1000 pot of the night /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]

I think playing 89s for 2 bets here is a mistake. You're not going to make a winning hand here often enough to justify calling 2 cold preflop. Then there is the issue of implied odds, which are in trouble now.

[/ QUOTE ]

we are talking about a possible 8 way pot, whether u play 1 bet or 2 bet to see a 8 way flop, u are getting 8:1 odds. Implied odds get BETTER when there is a raise before the flop - now there are 18 bets in the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
Additionally, its going to get expensive for you to get to the river, and even if you do make your hand, you can easily lose to a bigger one.

[/ QUOTE ]
it is true, it will get expensive. it it true u might lose to a bigger flush, or straight. that's why preflop is not the only place where skills are important.

[ QUOTE ]
you have 89s, and the EP raiser has AJs of the same suit. how much money are you going to lose when the flush gets there?

[/ QUOTE ]
i am going to lose one extra bet if there was a bigger flush out there. and i can make plenty of nut straights /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
And what happens when you flop top pair. you have a 9, crap kicker. what if someone called with A9s?

[/ QUOTE ]

do you ALWAYS play to the river when u flop top pair?

[ QUOTE ]
easy fold

[/ QUOTE ]
can be and should be easy fold for some, can be and will be a fun and profitable call for others. I vote CALL or RAISE.

/images/graemlins/grin.gif

[turnipmonster]

[ QUOTE ]

Implied odds get BETTER when there is a raise before the flop - now there are 18 bets in the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with most of your post (and I think this is a definite call/raise), but I don't think the above statement is true at all. Unless I'm way off, hands with "implied odds" are hands where you are not currently getting odds to call, however the bets/calls/raises of your opponents on future rounds give you the odds you need to make the current call.

since you are relying on your opponent's action when you make a hand, in general if you have a hand that thrives off "implied odds" you do not want to put a lot of money in before the flop.

Abdul actually talks about this concept a lot in his preflop essay, which is where I learned this. In the absence of callers, a raise trashes the implied odds of a hand that likes to see the flop cheaply.

versus limpers however, you can raise profitably with the same suited connectors, since in large multiway pots suited connectors will win more than their "fair" share.

In this situation, because of all the cold callers, your hand is getting the odds it needs and will win more than "usual" in a multiway pot, so the call is (IMHO) correct.


--turnipmonster

[southerndog]

Most people seem to feel calling is ok. What if the same situation occurred, but you held a small-medium pocket pair?
Then what?

[woodman]

forget the inplied odds, the odds of flopping 2 pair or better are about 1 in 8

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
forget the inplied odds, the odds of flopping 2 pair or better are about 1 in 8

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds of flopping two-pair or better are 27.8:1.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Implied odds get BETTER when there is a raise before the flop - now there are 18 bets in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

This comment is completely wrong. Your implied odds have just been seriously damaged by being forced to put two bets into the pot pre-flop. Understanding that is really basic.

[woodman]

I don't know what I was thinking before, but your odds don't include str8's and flushes. There are 417 str8's or flushes and 680 two pair's thru quads i.e. 1 in 18 to flop 2 pair or better. I think I was adding in the monster draws (pair + flush draw, str8 + flush draw) with my earlier number. But I think you still have to play this hand here.

[Dynasty]

You're right about me not including straights in flushes. The 27.8:1 figure is the odds of you flopping two-pair, trips, a full-house, or quads.

FWIW, I always fold small and medium suited connectors in this spot and definitely would have folded 98s.

[nykenny]

thank you Dynasty and Turnipmonster. you are both right that i made a mistake on the implied odds statement.

what i really meant was that:

1) the 89s is getting the same pot odds, whether calling 1 bet or 2 bets as long as we can assume 7 others will come along.
2) the 89s will get better odds calling on the flop in a raised pot.

i hope i am making better sense now /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[BreaKBeatZ]

89s plays better against preflop raises than limpers.

[Benman]

He sais this a very loose and aggressive game. In games like that, it's hard to attach too much significance or importance to the number of raises pre-flop. There's no way I don't play this hand, and I'm a pretty tight player. I might even raise here. It might get capped, I don't mind it getting capped, so why not get it there myself. It disguises my hand and future hands. I couldn't imagine folding. If I ever fold such a quality multi-player hand on the button in a wild game just shoot me.

By the way, I think this post nicely illustrates a concept I believe in. I think way too much calling goes on pre-flop in limit hold'em. I play no-limit frequently, and whenever I do play limit I'm amazed by how much energy gets spent worrying about when to call versus when to raise pre-flop. Think of all the information you give away when you either call or raise based on obvious criteria. On the other hand, if calling pre-flop is mathematically the best play, how much worse could raising actually be? I'd submit not much, and that little difference is more than made up by the inability of your opponents to gather information about your possible hand. Further, as one of the responses below point out, you get the same odds regardless of how many bets it is (assuming you have x-number of players). Sorry for the rant, but that's my two cents worth.

[obi---one]

If you can't call 89s in that situation, please come down to my game, gotta love the tight predictable players

[Ed Miller]

No, 98s does not play better in raised pots than unraised pots.

No, 98s is not the third best hand you can have here after AA and JTs.

No, folding 98s in that spot does not make you a "tight and predictable" player.

Yes, you do mind very much if it gets capped. You should mind every time you play in a pot that is capped preflop and your hand is a small pair or small/medium suited connector.

No, I don't think there is any value in raising here. Three bets is just too much to pay to play a medium suited connector in a six way pot with no reasonable hope of using your preflop aggression to steal.

No, if you flop a huge draw, you have no interest at all in seeing the turn for only one bet. If you flop a huge draw, you have an interest in capping the flop.

No, your implied odds are not improved by a preflop raise. Please reread the definition of implied odds if you think this is the case.

No, you should not usually fold your hand if you flop top pair. Folding decent hands in huge pots is not the way to make money playing poker.

Now that we've covered that, I think that you can probably call here profitably. But unlike vehn, I think it is somewhat close. If your connector gets any smaller, I don't think the call is profitable. Your main fear is that you won't be able to see the flop for only two bets.

I would say that a call in this game type with any pocket pair is clearly profitable. You are not quite as worried about it being 3-bet behind you in that situation.

[Vehn]

I think the difference between 98s and 54s here is tiny.

[Ed Miller]

I think the difference between 98s and 54s here is tiny.

From gocee.com

98s 51.1 36.0 28.5 23.6 20.2 17.8 15.9 14.5 13.4
54s 41.1 28.8 22.6 18.9 16.5 14.8 13.5 12.5 11.7

Looks major to me.

[Vehn]

uhm against what hands exactly?

[SuCidEKInG]

Call.

[Franchise (TTT)]

I agree completely: tons of misinformation.

I'd probably fold. It'd be very difficult to avoid paying off the whole way without a draw and a second best hand.

In any case, I can't imagine that calling/folding/raising are too far apart in terms of EV. However, I tend to try minimizing SD, and I think this is a good spot to do so.

[cero_z]

[Rick Nebiolo]

I'd call and I don't think it is close. Here's why:

1) You have significant multi-way action, in this case about 6.5 opponents. This type of hand loves multiway action.

2) Although the single raise reduces implied odds, you still have some implied odds due to the many opponents and large payoff when you hit the flop.

3) You act last every betting round. This often allows you to put in EV maximizing raises (especially on the come).

4) Your hand isn't dominated. I'd much prefer this hand over a hand such as AQ offsuit.

5) The 98s (or any suited middle connectors) makes more straights and flushes than any other hand. These are the moneymakers in multi-way pots. If a seven or eight way pot isn't multi-way, what is?

6) The fear of flush over flush is overrated. An exception would be if most flops were two or three way and now this one became multi-way. Now suited big cards are more likely out.

Two caveats:

1) When the 98 flops a straight draw with a board of J-T-x you really have to downplay making a straight with a queen. The AK will often be out and going nowhere.

2) When you flop a pair/backdoor draw or backdoor draws or other partial hit on the flop you must really play well.

Regards,

Rick

[BreaKBeatZ]

I agree, the difference between 54s and 89s is tiny with this type of preflop action.

I would always rather play my 89s to a raise here with so many cold callers than a lot of limpers. You have a much better chance of hitting trips or 2 pair against all these people seeing as many of them hold 2 high cards.

[Ed Miller]

I would always rather play my 89s to a raise here with so many cold callers than a lot of limpers. You have a much better chance of hitting trips or 2 pair against all these people seeing as many of them hold 2 high cards.

This is nonsense and completely flawed thinking. Only one person raised. The other five people called. There is no reason to expect their cards to be any higher than the ones you are considering calling with.

Having to pay two bets to see the flop with a medium suited connector is a lot worse than having to only pay one bet. The reason is that suited connectors will hit the flop rarely, but will make big hands relatively often. Such a hand needs to see the flop cheaply to be profitable.

Again I will repost my data from gocee.com:

98s 51.1 36.0 28.5 23.6 20.2 17.8 15.9 14.5 13.4
54s 41.1 28.8 22.6 18.9 16.5 14.8 13.5 12.5 11.7

There is a BIG difference between 98s and 54s. 98s wins against four or five random hands almost 25% more often than 54s. Yes, there is more to poker than how often you win hot-and-cold against random hands, and no, your opponents' hands are not random (though the more people that see the flop routinely, the closer this approximation holds). In spite of that, I absolutely guarantee you that any hand that wins 25% more hands against random hands than another will do much better in a real poker game... especially when the two hands compared are the same hand type (small/medium suited connectors). You and vehn are simply wrong when you say that the difference is tiny.

[Vehn]

Oh come on. Its not "four or five" hands, its going to be 8 way to the flop for 2 bets, according to the original post. And I know you aren't naive enough to think that a hot and cold sim with random hands is significant in any way in determining how well 54s does against 98s here. You're going to have to do better than that.

[BreaKBeatZ]

You SHOULD rather play this hand to a raise and cold callers than a bunch of limpers. First of all, the odds you are getting are the same. Secondly, although the raise suggests a strong hand, 89s plays pretty much the same against decent preflop hands or great preflop hands. Does it really matter if he has AK or AJ? No, you will almost always know when you are winning with 89s. Chances are that someone has a pocket pair higher than a 9, so it doesnt matter is he has TT or AA your hand will play pretty much the same. People will also pay you off more when you hit big and they are drawing dead or close to it because of the size of the pot.

If you think that you cant determine anything about the callers hands you are wrong. Obviously you cant put all these guys on overcards but I think its safe to assume this is what many of them hold. The only thing people are going to be calling with here are overcards (good for you because they are holding each others outs), pocket pairs (not too frightening for 89s), or other suited connectors, maybe 1 gappers. Now pocket pairs and suited connectors, come along much more rarely than 2 overcards so I think its safe to assume that overcards are what a good deal of the table holds. This DOES help you hit trips or 2 pair on the flop as well of reducing their chances to hit a pair.

As for that program you are using, I dont know what it is, but I do know that it is putting you up against 5 RANDOM hands, NOT 5 hands that call a raise. These are 2 very different situations. I think 54s plays pretty much the same as 89s in the game described.

BTW I would not raise because the original raiser may 4 bet and drive out some of the people who called 2.