a good spot to bluff the river:

[Josh W]

This could get lengthy. I think the game was 15-30 at Hawaiian Gardens. Either that or it was 20-40. Shouldn't matter much.

I'm fairly new (about 3 orbits) to this loose, semi-aggressive game. Two bad players limp. I don't remember much about the first limper, and he doesn't matter in the hand. The second is a passive old man, who is not tricky at all, and not good at detecting trickery. He gets checkraised a lot because he bets anything. He also pays off a lot.

I limp in mid-late position with A8c. The button raises. He's fairly reasonable, but maybe steaming a tad. The SB calls, and the BB three bets. The BB is somewhat maniacal, and not that tricky. He plays poker like he's driving a bulldozer. Both limpers call the two additional bets, as do I, and the button caps. All call.

6 of us see the flop for 4 bets apiece, 24 bets in the pot.

Flop comes 7d 6d 3c. It gets checked to the button who bets. The BB and second limper (L2) call, as do I.

The turn is the 9h, making the board 7d 6d 3c; 9h.

It gets checked around.

Right now, I put the button on AK, possibly suited. I put the BB on overcards (KQ or KJ are possible, his threebet does not necessarily indicate premium-ness). L2 has two cards, and likely not a straight or a 9, as he'd likely bet either.

The river brings an offsuit Jack, board 7d 6d 3c; 9h; Js.

It gets checked to me, and I bet.

In your opinion, is this a good spot to bluff the river?

Thanks in advance. I'll post the results and my thoughts next.

Josh

[Josh W]

Well, as I said I bet.

I "knew" the button had me beat, but likely had no pair. He'd have a frightfully tough time calling the river bet with no pair and two more people to act. This was the first hand I had played (not sure if I mentioned that in my post or not), so he would think I wasn't getting out of line. The BB also almost definitely had no pair, as he didn't bet. He may call with AK or AQ, but there was also a chance (10%?) that I had him beat (he had KQ or KT or something), and would surely much all worse hands.

The old man would never ever ever call with no pair, but he may have a pair (65 or 44 or something). I don't know if he'd call with a small pair or not. He was very loose, and his preflop call and flop call indicate nothing about his cards other than they were still in front of him.

The L2 was the guy I was most concerned about, but I figured the pot was big (14 big bets), and this bet doesn't need to work hardly at all, so it was worth a shot.

As for the results....Do they really matter?

Josh

[cero_z]

Hi Josh,
I like the way you've carefully analyzed each player's probable holdings, and styles. I don't think your chances of having the best hand here are as high as 1/15, and I don't think you'll be called often enough by worse hands to make a bet profitable (through bluffing + getting called with K high), but it's probably close. You did say the game was semi-aggressive, which bodes well for you in this hand, as everyone's acting very passive now. I originally thought that you were betting, hoping to get the "steaming" button to bluff-raise, helping you eliminate the field. Would you call if he raised, and everyone else folded? Or do you find this scenario (you holding a winner in this spot) too farfetched? Anyway, I hope you won this hand. Post your results if you have time.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi Josh,
I like the way you've carefully analyzed each player's probable holdings, and styles

[/ QUOTE ]

I particularly liked this description from Josh.

[ QUOTE ]
The second (limper) is a passive old man, who is not tricky at all, and not good at detecting trickery. He gets checkraised a lot because he bets anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

What exactly is a passive player who bets anything?

[TJSWAN]

[ QUOTE ]
The BB is somewhat maniacal, and not that tricky. He plays poker like he's driving a bulldozer.

[/ QUOTE ]


That's my favorite line /images/graemlins/smile.gif


Tim

[Josh W]

you obviously don't know much about poker if you don't know who a passive player who bets anything is....sheesh.

Kidding, of course.

and now, thinking back to the player...i'm not sure how to describe him.

if he puts in a bet on a street, he's not folding on the same street. He could have A7s on a 876, all diamond board. He would lead out and call the cap when it gets back to him. He's very loose, and quick to bet, but very very very slow to raise.

For instance, if he had JT on a JT7 board, he'd lead out, but if somebody raised him, he would resort to check/call mode. If he had A7 on this same board, he'd play it the same way.

So, he's passive, but he bets a lot (passive meaning he never pushes hands, and never raises...but bets a lot, does that make sense?). And he's very loose in that he'll call down a lot of hands with middleish pair. Like I said in my earlier post, I don't know if he'd call the river with a hand like 65 or 44. I'm guessing that there is about a 60% chance that he'd call.

So, that's my description of a passive player who bets anything.

Josh

[Rick Nebiolo]

Josh,

I'm avoiding looking at results for now.

It was forseeable that the betting propably gets capped before the flop so you should get out when you were facing calling two more bets cold after investing only one bet. Even against this lineup you are going uphill with A8 suited.

Easy call on the flop with a pot this big based on your backdoor flush alone.

Did you consider betting your draw on the turn? Before the button checks the turn you can't put him on AK. This board is very scary to pre flop raisers and even if you are raised by the button (if he had a big pair) it might make an ace an out if it drives out AK in one of the other hands. Of course a bet might drive out AK anyway - that's an additional bonus.

Betting the river when 14 big bets are at stake seems reasonable. Certainly you have a small chance of success and that's all you need to make it plus EV. But betting the turn would have been better IMO.

Regards,

Rick

[DrSavage]

You say that the old man pays off a lot, which means he's likely to call. The pot is very large and i think anybody will call you with a pair of jacks. I can see betting into 2 people max, i would not bet into 3.

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
You say that the old man pays off a lot, which means he's likely to call. The pot is very large and i think anybody will call you with a pair of jacks. I can see betting into 2 people max, i would not bet into 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interestingly, I think I've won a couple pots recently because I had 4 opponents rather than 2. I think that even some pretty bad players recognize that it takes some guts to bluff into 4 guys on the river, so they are less likely to call you when you do.

[cero_z]

Hi Dynasty,
Just to simplify it for you, let's call the man "weak-tight". That'll keep my reply terse, so as to match the majority of yours. Cheers.