Baseball: The American League Playoff Race

[Dynasty]

The standings as of Tuesday, 9/16:

AL East

New York Yankees: 93-57
Boston Red Sox: 87-62 (5.5 GB)

AL Central

Minnesota Twins: 81-69
Chicago White Sox: 80-69 (0.5 GB)
Kansas City Royals: 77-72 (3.5 GB)

AL West

Oakland A's: 91-60
Seattle Mariners: 86-64 (4.5 GB)

AL Wild Card

Boston Red Sox: 87-62
Seattle Mariners: 86-64 (1.5 GB)
Chicago White Sox: 80-69 (7.0 GB)
Kansas City Royals: 77-72 (10.0 GB)

The best race to watch should be the AL Central race. All the Central teams are so far behind in the Wild Card race that their only practical way to make the playoffs is to win the division.

In the division fight, the Twins appear to have a big advantage. Seven of their remaining twelve games will be played against the hapless Detroit Tigers (38-111). Two more games will be played against the Cleveland Indians (65-86) who have the third worst record in the AL. Only their 3-game home series against the second place White Sox over the next three days will be diffiuclt. As long as the Twins don't get swept by the White Sox, I like their chances a lot.

The White Sox have a brutal schedule in their last thirteen games. After their three game series in Minnesota, they play three home games against Kansas City and three more against the New York. Their final four games will be on the road aginst Kansas City.

It's the seven games between Chicago and Kansas City which I think gives the Twins the big advantage. While those two teams are beating each other, the Twins should be cruising against the worst team in more than 100 years. Kansas City also has three games at Cleveland and three home games against Detroit.

The Red Sox have a similar advantage in the Al Wild Card race. All thirteen of their remaining games are being played against sub .500 teams including six against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays. The other seven are against Baltimore and Cleveland. Meanwhile, the Seattle Mariners will have a brutal schedule with six of their games against the Oakland A's and the other six at Anaheim and at Texas. The Mariners will be playing their next nine games on the road before their final three game home series against the A's.

The Mariner's only hope in the Al West race will be those six games against the A's. They're almost going to have to win five of those six games for any chance of wining the division. Oakland also has three games against Anaheim and Texas but they have a 6-5 split of home and road games. The division is nearly won.

In the Al East, the Yankees basically have it locked up. They've also got an easy schedule with nine of their last twelve games against lowly Baltimore and Tampa Bay.

So, my playoff predictions are:

AL East champion New York Yankees vs. AL Central champion Minnesota Twins

AL West champion Oakland A's vs. AL Wild Card Boston Red Sox.

[Boris]

Good analysis overall. Unfortunately for my A's, I think the Twinkies have a very good shot at the central. Especially since they get Chicago at home. The dome in Minnesota is a brutal place for visiting teams.

I think Seattle has an outside shot at the wildcard because the Devil Rays and Orioles have the potential to play tough. Also, the Angles and Rangers are playing alot softer because of injuries and trying to get their minor league talent some innings in the big leagues. The Angels are especially soft right now.

[Zeno]

I agree with Boris- well done analyses.

I also have to agree that the Mariners are now a long shot to make the playoffs, even as a wildcard. As I posted more than a month ago the Mariners needed to maintain a 4-5 game lead going into the last 2 weeks of the season to give themselves a reasonable chance to get to the playoffs. They have played sub par baseball for over three weeks now and lost their chance. If I bet on sports, I would want 4/1 odds to lay money on the Mariners right now to make the playoffs. Sad but true, the team just seemed to run out of gas. But no regrets about "my" team, they have played very well most of the season and still have a outside chance. Go Mariners.

The match up for the AL playoffs will be excellent and the games should all be gritty baseball, I hope. Can the Yanks sweep the Twins? I’m will be looking forward to the games no matter what teams end up on the field.

By the way, Dynasty – How is the baseball league thing going- hope you post the results at the end of the season. Good luck the rest of the way.

-Zeno

[Dynasty]

The beating Gil Meche took last night did some big damage to both the Mariners and my LABR team. But, if I get a few breaks, I can overcome my 5 point deficit.

Here's a link to the standings:

http://usafantasy2.tqstats.com/baseball/scripts/wwwstand.pl?labral&whence=iA3YxnPCPI4Sx3s7Wa0Vc7rR L5R

[Joe Tall]

I agree with your predictions, however, the Sox have had trouble with Baltimore all year (for some reason Balt is the torn in the Sox side).

But if Nomar can snap out of it, there will no stopping them down the stretch run.

Nice Roto-Team, BTW, I think you OF is a little weak, however, the strenth is in your pitcing staff. Good Luck in the stretch run.

I'm in a battle myself, head to head league, wish I could link it but the league is on a private site therefore I cannot.

[Dynasty]

Those White Sox choked big time in their 3 game series in Minnesota. Now they're down 3.5 games to the Twins with just 10 games of a brutal schedule left to play. Only a complete collapse by the Twins (with 7 of 9 games against the Tigers) can give the White Sox any hope.

The Red Sox are now up 2.5 over the Mariners in the Wild Card race. The Mariners also traile the A's by a full 5 games. 6 of their final 9 games are against the A's so it's put-up time for Seattle.

Atlanta and San Francisco clinced in the NL.