is this good play?

[elindauer]

This hand has been passed around on a private email thread. We couldn't come to a conclussion, so I'm posting it here for your comments:

The original question:

> I'm in middle/late position with 66
> UTG calls, middle player calls, I call, all fold to
> BB. 4-way to flop
> Flop comes 9h, 6d, 4s
> BB bets, UTG calls, middle folds, I call
> Turn is 9d. BB bets, UTG calls,
>
> What do you do and why?


We received answers of both call and raise, with each side feeling their answer was clearly superior. The poster followed with the following hand conclussion:

> In the hand as it was played, I smooth called the turn.
> The 4 paired on
> the river. Ugghh. BB bet, UTG raised, and yes,
> unfortunately, I had to fold.

Is this a good fold?

[elindauer]

UTG takes it down with A4s (4s full). The poster's 6s full would have been good, but were in the muck.

[Clarkmeister]

Forget the turn, raise the flop.

[medloH]

I think I witnessed this hand. Was it 20 40 at the Mirage early Sunday?

I'm with Clark, pot was big enough to raise like a bandit as soon as possible. Tough spot on the river, I probably fold too, even against this guy... The play on the river isn't the mistake IMO. More agression earlier and its your pot. May have been a bigger pot too. A raise on flop isn't going to make anyone go away, lot of hands you could be raising with, straight draw, top pair, even two overcards. Smooth call on turn makes no sense whatsoever to me.

[J'adoube]

I would raise the turn. What was the rationale of those who thought you should call on the turn? (TO raise the river?) There are some draws which might pay a raise on the turn but fold if you make it, a 9 might 3 bet and then you could 4 bet).

I think its hard to make the argument to not raise the turn or flop....

[elindauer]

Here are some arguments made by a player who believes calling is clearly the best play:

"UTG might have picked up a flush draw with two over cards, or may have a flush draw and straight draw. BB might be on a striaight draw and ... wouldn't that be great if everyone made their hand? You want to give UTG a chance to hit his/her hand. You want him to make the flush or the straight draw, or to hit an over card. You won't push anyone off their hand at this point. And if your case 6 hits the river, prepare to open fire.

The risk of raising the turn is that the BB may be on a steal and will fold, losing you a potential bet or two on the river. The other significant problem is that you won't lose one of the case 9s on the turn, and if he/she fills up with an overcard to your 6s, you will pay MORE than if the scenario played out with a call on the turn. In essence, you risk winning less with a raise on the turn, and losing more on the river."


and

"When you are that far ahead in the game, you need to let the other runners catch up and make something worth calling a raise on the river. The raise doesn't yield, or save, you as much equity as a call long term."

[Benman]

I don't think either play is bad. If you're worried about someone having trip 9's on the turn, raising isn't going to drive them out, so you'd lose to 9's full anyway. In fact, if you're confident that folding was the best play on the end, then just calling on the turn saved you a bet when the 4's paired, which was just about the only bad card you could hit. When any other card comes on the river (other than a 9), you can get your one raise in then.

[Barry]

I would have raised the flop here and led out the turn. You've got 2 folks in on the flop already, so there not going to go anywhere for 1 more bet. Also underfulls are very vunerable hands and you need to do what you can to win the pot.

However, having called the flop, you need to raise the turn! The argument for calling the turn makes no sense to me. If they did pick up draws, they're going to call the raise anyway, so get in now. If they miss, you won't get anything on the river. If they hit you can get multiple bets in on both the turn and river. If someone has trip 9's you're going to get a lot of action on the turn.

Of course the river is a lousy card and getting only 4.5:1 on your call here a fold is not horrible but I might call 1 raise as my last $ in the pot.

[elysium]

hi el
raise on the flop and turn. you're beaten on the river so you should fold. if, however, you had an opportunity to call one bet to you on the river, you could call if your call closed the action.

[Philuva]

This is some of the worst advice I have ever heard. I would stop going to these friends for any poker advice.

[ QUOTE ]
"UTG might have picked up a flush draw with two over cards, or may have a flush draw and straight draw. BB might be on a striaight draw and ... wouldn't that be great if everyone made their hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

It sure would, so charge them on the turn and the river. Hopefully when they make their flush or straight, they will bet into you and you will get to raise them again on the river. If they miss their draws, you got all you could from them on the turn. Otherwise you get nothing from them on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
The risk of raising the turn is that the BB may be on a steal and will fold, losing you a potential bet or two on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

If BB is on a steal, do you really think he is going to bet again on the river with 2 callers on the turn? I think you have extracted all you can from any steal hands, most likely he either has a part of this or is on a draw, in both cases you will get action from them.

[ QUOTE ]
The other significant problem is that you won't lose one of the case 9s on the turn, and if he/she fills up with an overcard to your 6s, you will pay MORE than if the scenario played out with a call on the turn. In essence, you risk winning less with a raise on the turn, and losing more on the river"

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you want to lose this person with a 9? Someone with a hand like A9 will make it 3 bets and you now get to make it 4 bets!!! If you are worried about losing money to a 3 outer, you will never make any money in poker. You will almost always be up against someone drawing to a 3 outer, sometimes 9 or even more outs, that doesn't mean you don't raise and go into calling mode. What happens if a T comes on the river? Do you not raise because you fear that someone was playing 9T? With this type of attitude I am not sure how you would ever raise. This is just weak passive poker.

[ QUOTE ]
"When you are that far ahead in the game, you need to let the other runners catch up and make something worth calling a raise on the river. The raise doesn't yield, or save, you as much equity as a call long term."

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not sure why you are concerend about saving equity when you flopped a set and turned a full-house. These seem like great opportunities to gain equity to me. Also, with still 2 other players betting and calling at the turn, I wouldn't be concerned about letting players catch-up, it appears they have something and will call your flop or turn raise.

[ML4L]

Hey elindauer,

I'm assuming that the plan from the start was to raise the river. Personally, I NEVER wait until the river to raise when multi-way. I'd say in these types of hands, I will raise the flop about half the time and raise the turn the other half. The reasons for not waiting until the river include:

1) If the other players don't have hands (or have mediocre ones), it will be checked to you on the river.

2) If the other players DO have hands, you missed bets.

3) Occasionally, the board will turn ugly and leave you in a situation such as this one.

With regard to that ugly situation on the river, I think that you'll see the raiser having a hand such as A4 (and BB not having a 9) often enough to call the two bets on the river (although it's probably close...).

Hope it worked out.

ML4L

[GoBrowns]

Raising on the turn is clearly the correct play (tho I might've started my raising on the flop). I think the best argument for the turn raise is that most players with a 9 will 3 bet you on the turn if they have a 9, while they are much less likely to 3 bet the river unless they have you beat. As for the river, I call one raise there. You beat (1) a str8 bluff and (2) several hands that an aggressive player might raise with. If the original bettor 3 bets, then I'm done.