tough decision

[gomberg]

Hi all,

I was playing the stars 1/2 NL holdelm the other night and had an interesting hand.

The table was loose passive with a couple minimum raises spread throughout. I was in MP w/ 55 and limped in after a couple callers.

The flop was 346 two tone (I don't have one of that suit). Checked to me, so I bet the pot of about $10. A loose aggressive (post-flop) player limit check-raises me to $20 from the blinds. He had been doing this to me the previous couple of orbits and I had been folding. I have him covered (I have $350 to his ~$200). What do you do here?

I called.

The turn was an offsuit J, and he bets $30, and I call again. The river was an offsuit 5, giving me a set but having the board be

3456J w/ no completed flush draw.

He hesitates for a second then bets out $100 (almost the size of the pot). I press time to think about what to do. What would you do?

Results to follow.

Jeff

[1800GAMBLER]

This thread should have a lot of arguements.

Flop.

'He had been doing this to me the previous couple of orbits and I had been folding'

You really want to know how strongly you feel about that, if he is capable of doing it with a small hand/nothing, by that i mean, doing it with a frequency that seems like he has nothing then you might want to push all in if you think he may fold. That play is based on wanting him to fold a percentage of the time though, else it's just a money waster. If you think the chances of him folding are slim don't do it, just call.

Turn:

I like the idea of fold. Unless you think you are already leading. But his checkraise of the min either says he's an idiot thinking he is value betting a draw or has a monster. So in other words don't call this bet if you aren't capable of calling a same sized bet/bit larger bet on the river if the river doesn't complete your straight. Since if you are capable of calling it you believe that you are leading.

River:

He either bluffed - badly - all the way through the hand and picked up a straight, or had something worthwhile (i can't see many worthwhile hands on that flop, unless he's very loose - infact, he's in the blinds LAPs don't usually fold anything in the SB in NL) and is now bluffing.

I think some will give him credit for the flopped straight but i really doubt that since 3 of the 5s are already used up.

LAPs are capable of bluffing but also capable of making huge bets on boards others wouldn't. I'd think i'd still be more inclinded to call that strange river bet though. But i can see this one bringing a good arguement throughout the thread.

Only part is like is folding the turn. Or having the balls, bankroll and read enough to push in the flop.

Sidenote, i spent a long while thinking about this hand so chances are i'd make a balls-up of it in the hand. If you call the river and the LAP does have the straight i don't think it's a huge mistake. 2:1 on your call, i'd say you make that in times he has 2 pair plus times he bluffs.

Tough hand.

[jumpthru]

Why are you in on the flop and river for such large bets, if you aren't willing to call a large bet on the river if your miracle five hit? If you are scared when a five hits, then are you waiting to hit your straight draw? I think its an obvious call on the river.

[gomberg]

JayP - thanks for the great reply.

On the flop, I really thought I was in the lead but didn't have the balls to reraise. The problem with that was he would have been inclined to call with any type of draw. If he has a flush draw and overcards there, I didn't want to risk most of my stack on a slight underdog or favorite type hand.

The turn was by far my worst play. It was sort of a kneejerk reaction, but at the same time, I was pretty sure I was still ahead, or at least had a good draw to a straight.

On the river, I thought the bet was strange and decided he was most likely bluffing. Sure enough, he had the A5 hearts and I took down a nice pot. I also thought that since it was 2:1, it was a positive edge call on the end.

This hand left me with a bad (albeit happy) feeling. I try to stay away from "tough decision" hands in my game, but didn't avoid this one and felt the weak call on the turn was pretty bad.

Thanks for the replies,

-Jeff

[1800GAMBLER]

Nice thought process on the flop then, like i said the play is based on him folding, else you'll probably only have a small edge, i like making these plays just to keep poker interesting at times.

Turn is the part were you aren't getting the odds for your straight draw, and usually, implied odds on this board aren't going to get you anywhere. So only call if you are leading.

Anyhow, nice going glad you took down the pot. That way you played strangely would have got the maximium out of the pot /images/graemlins/laugh.gif.

Interesting though, would you have called $100 if the river blanked? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Nice going.

[cjx]

I would be inclined to go all in on the flop; assuming he is not playing from one of the blinds where he might hold 57 or 52 (aka any old crap) to have flopped a straight. You have to believe that worst case scenario is he holds 66 or big pocket pair, both of which you have outs to beat, but more often than not given your description of the events he might have solid overcards and he wants to muscle you out. Otherwise I think I fold on the flop, probably fold the turn and definitely call on the river because you had to believe a 2, 5, 7 were among your outs if you were behind to begin with.

[Zag]

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop, I really thought I was in the lead but didn't have the balls to reraise. The problem with that was he would have been inclined to call with any type of draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is badthink! If he will call with a draw, then it makes sense to bet! If he has a draw, then you are not going to get his money after the board has missed him. If you are that risk-averse you should be playing a smaller game, one that suits your bankroll better.

[gomberg]

I have thought about this and I'm not sure. I probably would have folded to a heart or ace type card, but other than that, I think it's 50/50 if I call or fold. I don't think he makes that bet unless that 5 comes as a scare card. If he hit his hand, I don't think he bets $100 there, either - more like $50.

The worst case for me would have been the 7 or 2 of hearts. I probably call a bet and lose cause I wasn't positive he was on a flush draw.

[gomberg]

Zag,

The problem with pushing all-in there is that he will call with a flush draw + two overs which makes him a slight favorite I think (haven't simulated it). You are correct though that I am a little too risk averse probably.

[Zag]

In this particular hand I don't object strongly to the call. I was just objecting to what you stated as the reason for it. It would have been a terrible reason. However, your real reason was:

"I thought I was ahead, so I called. But I wasn't very sure, and I could have been way behind, so I didn't raise. And even if I was ahead, it likely wasn't by a lot."

[tewall]

A suggestion is not to think so black and white about the hands he has and your plays. In other words, it's not fold or not-fold fold, but fold this pct. of the time, etc.

Same thing with hands. Don't put him on a single hand, but on the range of hands he could have and how you think he would play those range of hands. Then you can think about how playing the hand would maximize your E.V. based on how you think he would play.

Of course you won't have time to go through this analysis during the play of hand, but doing it when you have time to think things out will help your intuition in times of battle.