Bad Beats to Beat All Bad Beats

[brianmarc]

Questions to you after you read my post:

What are the odds of this happening?
Is a worse beat possible?
Any way to play these hands differently.

Both hands are 20/40 6-player online games.

Hand 1
I'm Button.
66 pocket. UTG bets. Everyone limps. I raise. Everyone stays in.

Flop: JJJ
SB bets, everyone else folds, I raise. SB calls.

Turn: 2
SB checks, I bet, he limps.

River: the 4th Jack!
SB bets. I call.

Showdown: He wins the hand with board quads and A5o in the pocket!!


Hand 2: No more than 20 mins later:
I'm UTG+1

Pocket: TT. UTG best, I raise, both blinds and UTG call; everyone else folds.

Flop: 555
SB bets. BB limps. UTG folds. I raise. Blinds both call.

Turn:
9 No flush threat
SB, BB check. I bet. Both blinds limp.

River: The 4th 5!
SB raises. BB reraises. (Stunned) I fold. SB reraises. BB caps.

Showdown: They share the pot with SB A7s; BB A8o.

Lucky I'm home alone, otherwise someone gets a j=knuckle sanwich! (lol). I go take a shower and a long walk, and prepare to fight another day!

River: The 4th

[bugstud]

well, quads on board after flopping 3 of that card is not that unlikely...frankly, in both hands you're a favorite but not a huge one.

[Dynasty]

Somebody with an Ace is drawing to four outer against you. That's the same as making a gut-shot straight draw. What's the big deal?

[ACPlayer]

Minor bad beats - next.

Incidentally the worst bad beat in any "normal" poker game is a runner, runner, runner, straight flush in 7 stud against made quads on 4th street [cite: Ciaffone's PL book].

Add to that a compound of the same Quads being beaten in two places in 7 stud and losing out on the jackpot in a jackpot game and you have a true bad beat. Anything else is just pedestrian.

[Ulysses]

You're joking, right?

[JTG51]

As everyone else already said, these are routine beats. The same as someone hitting a gutshot.

More importantly, your river call in the first hand is really, really terrible. Did you think he was bluffing with 5 high?

[J.A.Sucker]

Questions to ponder after reading your post:

1. Did you really think that he had 2 cards lower than a 6 in his hand in Hand 1?

2. Do you think that losing these hands is the be-all and end-all in online poker?

3. How can I get the 5 minutes of my life back that I wasted on this post? (I should have known from the title, so I'm partially to blame, so I'm just gonna look for 2 minutes back).

[brianmarc]

Far as I can tell, I'm about a 50/1 favorite.

[brianmarc]

True. But he's not getting anything like the odds of a gut-shot in shorthanded game. But yes, guys do play for gutshots, even though they shouldn't, so I suppose that lessens the badness of the beat.

But, still, quads are mighty rare. To have them beat you twice against what appear to benut hands, that's the statistical anomaly I'm thinking of.

[brianmarc]

Thanks. I feel MUCH better.

[brianmarc]

Nope. It happened. You're joking, right!

[brianmarc]

I disagree. My bet was actually really, really, really, really, really terrible!

I just sort of panicked and hit the Call button.

[brianmarc]

Re: Questions to ponder after reading your post:

1. Did you really think that he had 2 cards lower than a 6 in his hand in Hand 1? No. I just panicked since I was counting my profits from the flop.

2. Do you think that losing these hands is the be-all and end-all in online poker? No. Just an interesting anomaly.

3. How can I get the 5 minutes of my life back that I wasted on this post? (I should have known from the title, so I'm partially to blame, so I'm just gonna look for 2 minutes back). You sound like too nice a guy for me to tell you what I really think of this question.

[brianmarc]

Can that. Of course it's not 50/1.

[GuyOnTilt]

I wouldn't call somebody hitting a 4-outer a horrible beat. Quit complaing. I guarantee you every single poster on this forum has experienced beats much worse than this. Oh, and as other posters have pointed out, this IS the same as somebody hitting a gutshot on the river. 4-outers aren't all that uncommon buddy. Suck it up and move on.

BTW, what in the world are you doing calling the river in your first hand?! In case you didn't notice, you had 6-high!

[ACPlayer]

since I was counting my profits from the flop.
Buy Kenny Rogers song and listen to the one about the gambler.

[Depraved]

[brianmarc]

Point taken. I made a major bluner on the river, obvioulsy. Truth is, I did not realize that the 5th card would count in a hand like that. I just assumed that it would be a push.
And yeah, I am sucking it up - fortunatley I have a day job. But reading the replies to this post has been entertaining and I thank all of you for your comments.

[brianmarc]

Aha! Now the truth. Both these guys gave it all back, plus in subsequent sessions. Some to me, and some to others.

[glen]

something tells me you might want to rethink playing 20-40 short if this hand ruined your world. . .

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
But he's not getting anything like the odds of a gut-shot in shorthanded game

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not even right about this.

In the first 66 hand, six players saw the flop for two bets each. That put twelve small bets in the pot. Anybody has the proper odds to call one bet drawing to a 4-outer.

On the turn, with extra bets going in on the flop, he's getting 9:1 to call which is only a little short for a 4-outer. However, his call is still correct since some of the time, he'll win the pot by catching a 5 on the river.

So, not only did this opponent not put some uncommon bad beat on you, he actually had odds to draw to his hand and played reasonably post-flop.

The second hand is essentially the same. The odds are only slightly short for a four-outer. But, your opponents should assume they have a seven-outer some of the time and make the calls they made.

A short-handed 20-40 player who doesn't understand this is destined to get busted out of the game.

[elindauer]

The worst possible bad beat would be a perfect-perfect catch on the turn and river in which exactly two cards were needed, ie:

AA vs 72o

flop: 777
turn: A
river: A

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Can that. Of course it's not 50/1.

[/ QUOTE ]

For the record, you should expect to lose 19% of the time.

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Js Jd Jh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
6c 6h 784 79.19 167 16.87 39 3.94 0.812
5d Ah 167 16.87 784 79.19 39 3.94 0.188

[Schneids]

Here is an extremely tough beat that occured in a tournament:

Player one had QQ.
Player two had AJ.

Flop of 88Q.
Player one checks, Player two goes all in, Player One calls.

Turn: 88Q[8]
River: 88Q8[8]

Take it down AJ and Player Two.

[Boopotts]

I can understand your frustration, but you probably shouldn't get in the habit of calling with a 6 high on the river-- even in a shorthanded game. Also, since I'm the only man I know who's lost with quads twice and three times with straight flushes (two of which I flopped), it's hard to muster a ton of sympathy for someone who got beat by a garden variety four outer. But, like I said, I can see why you'd be exasperated.

Anyway, better luck on your next play.

[Jeff V]

You've never had a boat beaten before? 4 outers aren't bad beats, as this same thing happened to me this twice this week. I thought the sight must be rigged, but then realized that I was playing at a B&M casino. Jeff

[karlson]

Yes, he may have 7 outs. But not likely. If the 5's are good enough for the whole pot, then likely the A or J is only good enough for half of it, unless the guy has exactly 22-44 (or complete junk that you're ahead of anyway (maybe these are the chances to count)).

[34TheTruth34]

Brianmarc: Is this the worst beat possible?
Ulysses: You're joking, right?
Brianmarc: No, this really happened.

LOL! Funniest sequence I've seen on 2+2 since:

xxxxxxx: What on earth could possibly make you think he has a king?
Dynasty: Hand reading.