Bellagio 15-30: What hand do I have?

[Dynasty]

This Bellagio 15-30 hand got discussed a little at the table so I thought it might be interesting to post it. The game has been very loose and passive. When pre-flop raises are made, they are getting called by every hand imaginable.

The hand:

Two loose EP limpers (the first is ridiculously loose) to me. I'm in MP and limp with ????. An LP and the Button also limp. The Small Blind completes and the Big Blind checks his option. 7 players see the flop for 1 bet each.

The flop is: T/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Small Blind checks. Big Blind bets. Both EPs call. I raise. LP calls. Button folds. Small Blind folds. Big Blind calls. First EP folds. Second EP calls. Four players see the turn with 8 big bets in the pot.

The turn is: T/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gifA/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

The action is checked to me and I bet. LP calls. Big Blind folds. EP folds. Two players see the river.

The river is: T/images/graemlins/diamond.gifT/images/graemlins/spade.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gifA/images/graemlins/diamond.gif9/images/graemlins/club.gif

I bet and my opponent calls.

[Homer]

I'm surprised that so far almost everyone thinks you flopped quads. FWIW, I went with 77.

-- Homer

[skp]

I voted for Quads. Slowplaying with Quads makes little sense when there is a bet and two callers already on the flop. If you limp that makes it 4 guys (at least) staying for the turn and everyone's guard will be up. Besides, when you raise the flop, very few players already in for one bet will fold. They will call the raise and the one or two others with 2 overcards or a pocket pair may continue callling being on later streets suspicious that you don't have a ten.

Incidentally, if everyone had checked to Dynasty, then I would suggest that he too check but this situation is different with a bet and two calls.

If Dynasty had 77, the river bet would be really nutty. Even his flop raise and turn bet would be questionable given the number of players in the hand.

[Franchise (TTT)]

Call me a sucker for the obvious, but I went with AJo. With possibly the best hand out, and 6 clean outs if he's not ahead, he raises the flop to knock out other cards that could pair up on the turn, so he's likely ahead on the turn with just A high still.

The A comes on the turn, and the rest is easy from there, since quads would raise him at some point you'd think.

[skp]

With a bet and two callers, I would be convinced that AJ is not ahead at the moment. I would further be convinced that I am not going to get a full house to lay down by raising. I amy even be hesitant to believe that I would be in the lead if I paired a Jack or Ace on the turn (on that score, it's better to pair the Jack as pairing an Ace is more likely to lead to a split pot).

In short, with AJ, I would probably call or muck on the flop (probably muck). Also, If I stayed on, then checking the turn once the Ace comes is probably a better play than betting. Firstly, you avoid getting raised by Quads if it's out there. Secondly, you might induce the guy behind to bet when he is drawing dead. Thirdly, you might allow those opponents who would fold to a turn bet to draw for free and hopefully they get there on the river only to be DOA.

[Franchise (TTT)]

Thanks for the explanation skp. You rule.

I guess my biggest mistake was not registering that the two EPs called the original bet on the flop.

[brad]

i put you on like 88 or so (before i saw choices) think u played it well i know you like to value bet river so i dont think that detracts from chances you had 77 /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Jeff V]

first hand that popped in my mind was 77.

[Gooch]

i'd say you have As Jh. i like your play on the flop if someone 3 bets it then you easily can get away from your hand. when you hit on the turn you can continue to bet out.

[felson]

I agree with Homer -- I think you might have let others in on the flop if you had quads. AJ, KQ and you probably raise preflop. I don't think you'd raise the flop with 98, there's no point bluffing so many callers. I vote for 77.

[Dynasty]

I must be too predictable. The #1 choice of the voters was correct. I had J/images/graemlins/club.gifT/images/graemlins/club.gif.

I raised the flop mostly so that I would be checked to on the turn. If I waited to raise on a later street, it was going to be tough for anybody to call two big bets cold. I think the Ace on the turn hurt my action a bit. Although, the one opponent at the end called me down with 66.

I could have played all 5 hand listed the same way.

[AJo Go All In]

i must not understand poker. you would have played 9d8d the same way? please explain.

[Dynasty]

You play it that way for the same reasons you would play AJ or KQ that way. You want to fold out hands behind you and make sure you win when you hit your 6-out hand to a full-house. When the Ace comes on the turn, it's a great scare card to bet.

[Paluka]

I would think making strange semi-bluff plays against ultra-loose opponents when you might be drawing dead in a smallish pot was a bad idea:). So, I don't see how anyone makes a play like this with 89.

[Dynasty]

98 should be drawing very live here. There was no pre-flop raise, so it's very unlikely anybody holds AA, KK, QQ, or JJ. As long as somebody doesn't have the Ten, your six-outer is good. It's very valuable to get something like QJ to fold so that you can hit your 9 or 8 and not get outdrawn by overcards.

[skp]

You may have played the flop the same way with all of those hands but I doubt that you bet the river with 77 and I would say that checking with AJ on the turn is better than betting (particularly when the button coldcalls your flop raise).

I found it interesting that so many people picked AJ but hardly anyone picked KQ or 98. As you point out, they are all the same in the sense that you have 6 outers in each case (i.e. surely, someone has a pocket pair already with that many interested players on the flop). And out of those 3 hands, AJ may be the worst because of the greater likelihood of a split pot when you go on to pair on the turn or river. Well arguably, AJ is better than 98 as the pot is getting sizeable and you don't want redraws against you on the river if you happen to pair up on the turn. In any case, KQ is better than AJ.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
but I doubt that you bet the river with 77

[/ QUOTE ]

You can doubt all you want. But, with nobody raising anywhere, I would have thought 77 was good on the river. If somebody had an Ace, they would have raised the turn. There's no reason to think somebody has a 9.

[Paluka]

I disagree that anyone with an A would have raised the turn. You bet last to act. If I was acting first I think I make much more money by just calling with an A and hoping the guys behind me drawing dead call too than by raising you. And when you raise this turn with an A you only really get called by other aces or quads.

[ACPlayer]

Not in my games. There are enough BAD scaredy cats that they would call with A hign on the flop and call again when they make T's full of A's.

I like my games.

[Paluka]

[ QUOTE ]
98 should be drawing very live here. There was no pre-flop raise, so it's very unlikely anybody holds AA, KK, QQ, or JJ. As long as somebody doesn't have the Ten, your six-outer is good. It's very valuable to get something like QJ to fold so that you can hit your 9 or 8 and not get outdrawn by overcards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't even see how it is valuable to get QJ to fold to be honest. The only time that ever matters is when you hit your 8 or 9 on the turn and then they hit a Q or J on the river. That will happen less than 2% of the time. Unless you think somehow you are taking the pot down with 9 high, so you need Q high to fold?

[skp]

[ QUOTE ]
You can doubt all you want

[/ QUOTE ]

Why thank you. I think I will /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[karlson]

[ QUOTE ]
When pre-flop raises are made, they are getting called by every hand imaginable.


[/ QUOTE ]
I think this is a tip-off that Dynasty would have raised with JTs.

I went with AJ. If I have 77, and the A appears on the turn, I'm having a hard time putting people on hands that I can beat.

I can't imagine 98. Why would I have any right to raise with what looks like a 6-outer, with a showdown being likely?

[MaxPower]

Dynasty,

The reason I chose JTs is because you mentioned that the hand was talked about at the table. So I assumed they were talking about why you didn't slow play it. Loose passive players love to slow play. The question would have been harder if you hadn't mentioned that.

Anyway, I like the way you played it. If someone had paired that Ace, you would have gotten a lot of action.

[felson]

I recall a hand you posted where you flopped the 2nd nut flush against two players and were content to let them bet it for you. One bet per street is a good amount to charge players who are nearly drawing dead, you said. I guess you played this hand differently because the players are looser and willing to call for an extra SB on the flop?

[Dynasty]

In that flush hand, it was one EP limper against both the blinds. This hand had many opponents who could call with pocket pairs or big cards. That's a significant difference.

However, part of the reason I raised the flop was because I thought opponents might call two bets cold on the flop with overcards but wouldn't on the turn. So, I wanted to get checked to on the turn so I could bet and let others play along for one bet. They also shouldn't have been too worried that I had the Ten since I raised the flop.