To raise or not to raise... That is the question

[Mr. Peterson]

$200 buyin 1/2 PLO internet game. I have been playing for just over an hour and have $340. Nine handed at present.

Early positions fold, MP makes it $7($295 stack). I call in the cutoff with A /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif. Small blind calls ($420 stack), all else fold.

Flop is Q /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Small blind bets the pot $23. MP takes an age then folds, probably having folded AA.

Now I have a big wrap, nut flush draw, and 2nd nut backdoor flush draw. I am pretty certain that the bettor has a good hand, at least QJ but more likely QQ. He seems to be a tight player over the last hour (first time I've played with him) and he probably has reasonable side cards that either have him (J) or me partially blocked (AKT9 or clubs).

Of note i have seen him call down 2 players with a set when a player has obviously made a straight or flush to outdraw him on 4th (which i feel is his biggest weakness i've seen).

Anyway, the question is should i raise here? If i do and he does have QQ he will undoubtably reraise and we will get allin on the flop. If he doesn't have QQ he may fold. If he is drawing I have him killed (although he can still hit a rag pair and win if we both miss).

Who raises here and who takes a card off? I chose to call, then call the turn unless i hit (note anything i hit is the nuts except a pairing club).

[soda]

Based on your read, which is leaning towards QQ - I would just call here.

Re-evlauate your position on the turn, depending on the card and his bet. I think you can increase your EV here by just calling the flop and then folding if the board pairs on the turn and he pots it again or by potting it yourself on the turn if you hit - you did mention that he may very well call you if you hit and he has a set.

That's my thinking, I mostly play Hold 'Em though - so if I'm off at all, lemme know.

Thanks,

soda

EDIT: You didn't mention this, but if he has a decent chance of folding to your pot sized bet, I'd do that. But, since you didn't mention it, I'm guessing it's not going to happen.

/images/graemlins/wink.gif

[crockpot]

i definitely raise here.

a) he may fold right away (notice that unless you hit a draw, you can't beat a bluff, so you don't want him to keep bluffing.)
b) you are a lot better off getting your money in now than on the turn if a rag comes off
c) you are a favorite against top set with no defense

if you call here, you have to fold if the board pairs on the turn, which would be a huge mistake if he happens to be betting the "other" two pair, which is not all that uncommon when a player is practically marked with an overpair by the pre-flop action. get the money in now.

[MrGo]

If you're putting him on trip Q's, then there is no question to be asked.

Call.

[crockpot]

twodimes simulation (http://www.twodimes.net/poker/?g=o&b=Qc+Jc+4d&d=&h=Ac+Kd+Td+9c%0D%0AQs+Qh+9h+8s)

i'm even being nice and giving him sidecards that nullify two of your outs. many of the online players i know are not nearly as discretionary with their starting hands.

[Guy McSucker]

You have 21 outs to beat trips, although it's pretty likely two of them were in the preflop raiser's hand, and possibly another one or two in SB's hand. Without checking precise numbers, I think you're a decent favourite over trips with two cards to come, so getting it all in on the flop against QQ can't be bad.

The question is, can you do better?

If he will never bluff without the house if the board pairs, and if he will call you down with trips when you hit your draw, I think you can make a good case for just calling along. You'll have to call $27 now and $81 on the turn, leaving nearly $200 for the river. This also gives you a chance to get huge EV out of a weaker draw, e.g. straight draw with no clubs, by freerolling him from turn to river.

If he's the sort to put you on a draw when you flat call and then bet out if the board pairs on fourth street regardless of his holding, you may be better off not playing guessing games and just raising now.

Interesting hand.

Guy.

[Mr. Peterson]

Thanks for your comments, I got a lot of criticism from a mate who said i should have raised to get allin on the flop. While this is not a bad result, calling allows me to save in the event that the board pairs on the turn.

Turn was a small diamond, giving me even more outs, he bet the $81 I called, and i hit an offsuit 8 on the river for the nut straight, he was dumb enough to make a $50 bet and I raised allin, and he called. I was pretty sure he had at least QJ but more likely QQ when he bet the turn, and it turned out he had QQJT.

So in the end same result, but the mere call gives me potential saves which are often overlooked in books.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

[ QUOTE ]
So in the end same result, but the mere call gives me potential saves which are often overlooked in books.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you say this? Which book says to get it all in with an edge IF an alternative play gives you a bigger edge? I haven't read that book.

If a book does advise you to get it all-in here, it's probably because the author presume your opponent isn't so weak that they will call huge river bets AFTER you've pretty clearly beaten them. In bigger cash games, you won't get called so often here, and you might be getting bluffed on the turn if the board pairs, so you are generally best off getting in all the money on the flop if your hand is so strong that you have to be the favorite.

BTW, I thought Guy's reply was excellent. Put together all of the issues nicely.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Zag]

Guy, you've just joined the group of players whose posts I will now go out of my way to read. Great analysis!!