Super/System Stud section and Flush draws

[Duke]

In the stud section, Chip (or Danny, who (at least) once said casually that he had written for Chip) states that on 5th street with a 4 flush you're a 1.86:1 dog to make your hand.

Well, yeah that's the hold'em odds given the unknown cards for that game, but given that you must see more cards which are out of the equation now in stud, I assert that this will never, ever, be exactly true.

Yes, over time it will surely be the case since discounting the upcards will yield the same results over time, but on a given hand it can't possibly be true. You could also play AA in Hold'em every hand to the river because they're best, but that's not a good move in every situation either.

Mason has spoken of hold'em odds not necessarily being as important as one may think, but a general idea is surely important, and in stud dead cards make probabilities swing significantly.

Yeah it's not a 2+2 book, but I figure most of you have read this book as well. I read the Stud hi/lo section after I had been playing that game successfully for a few months, and I agree with David's section on the whole. Of course, adjusting certain parts to account for the fact that it's now played 8 or better and not just hi/lo (in every casino I have ever seen it spread in). There, I mentioned David, so now it's related to 2+2. Still haven't gotten around to reading Ray's book.

So... what's the point? Oh yeah, figure odds for completing stud hands out on the fly, and don't try to memorize them. Unless you're in my game, then no matter how many dead spades there are, you're only a 1.86:1 dog to complete.

~D

[Andy B]

Well, gosh, you're right. And so what? You could probably spend some time away from the table figuring your odds of making a flush given that x of your suit have shown out of y cards. But there are more productive things to do during the play of a hand than try to calculate your odds of making your hand to the third decimal place. In practice, you're almost always going to continue to draw to your flush unless a lot of your suit have shown or it looks like you may be up against a full house. I don't think that in-depth knowledge of probabilities is going to help you much.

If you play stud/8, Ray's book is an absolute must.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

I think the book that would help him out the most (AFTER 7CSFAP) would be the Othmer 7CS book. It has all those stats, for those who really WANT to know.

al

[Ray Zee]

what you need to at least know is what the odds are of events happenning like draws and such. then be able to add or subtract from them the changes from extra info you may have.
as in holdem it changes 1.86 as the cards that are known or inferred in opponents hands.

[Andy B]

You're probably right. I've started Othmer's book several times, but all those charts and numbers and things make my head hurt.