Flopped Draw--Would you play it the same?

[Jeffage]

15-30 hand online. I have Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif two off the button. All fold to me, I raise. Only the big blind defends. The flop comes K /images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif. BB bets, I raise, BB calls. The turn is the 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. He now bets (?)...I call. The river is the 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif. He checks? Now what? Did I play this ok so far or am I really losing my mind (as it seems lately).

Thanks,

Jeff

[haakee]

I would check the river, worried that his check is a bluff-inducing check. Other than that it looks like you played it fine.

[elysium]

hi jeff
this situation depends upon how he perceives you. if you have a solid image, then you're good for a bluff attempt on the river, provided that this opponent isn't a loose bluff raiser or aggressive/ loose. then, you'll have to check it down.

the problem is that if you have bluffing conditions on the river, you had them on the turn. so, if you called the turn, you should check-down the river. the obvious solution is to opt to semi-bluff the turn and maintain the option to bluff-raise the river, when bluffing conditions exist. don't decide to bluff after showing turn weakness. does that mean that a river bluff should only be made after attempting a turn semi-bluff? i think that it does, although, there are situations that can come up on the river that makes a gut instinct bluff on the river ok., just don't go looking for it. tend to start deducing your bluff options and matching them to the player and board when you have semi-bluffed the turn. since your gut instinct here is not to bluff(if my gut instinct is right) then don't bluff.

[ragedyandy]

When he elects to call your raise on the flop instead of re-raising and then betting out on the turn, it looks like he hit the turn. J7, 77? But when he checks the river, I get confused ... is he now going for a check-raise? Was he only joking on the turn? I don't know what he's hoping for at this point. He may have thought you could make a good tough lay down on the turn if bet into (that failed). If he's the type that will lay down second or third pair on the river to a single bet after there's ~7 BB's in the pot, then by all means, bet.

I've never seen as many bad beats as I've seen on Paradise Poker! I KNOW WITHOUT DOUBT THAT I'M GOING TO LOSE ON PARADISE WHEN I HAVE AA OR KK IN THE HOLE - IT HAPPENS WITHOUT FAIL ABOUT 8 TIMES IN A ROW AND COUNTING.

[LotusX]

most likely hand for him is a jack with a solid kicker or a very weak king.


He's going to call your river bet, it screams of inducing a bluff.

[muck_nutz]

> 15-30 hand online. I have Q 10 two off the button. All fold to me, I raise. Only the big blind defends. The flop comes K J 5 . BB bets, I raise, BB calls. The turn is the 7 . He now bets (?)

So the bet on the turn looks to me like a free card defense. After the blind defense, the bet and call on the flop, and bet on the turn I'd guess his hand has showdown equity but isn't very strong. Very weak king, strongish jack.

> ...I call.

So the question is what do you plan when you do this? This is the moment to decide if you have any bluff equity or not. If you just call I can't see getting him off any made hand on a river blank. But you might consider semi-bluff reraising. You have a bunch of outs and his hand looks weak. Attack.

> The river is the 2 . He checks? Now what?

I think after the turn call you have to check. He is likely to be trying to induce a bluff.

> Did I play this ok so far or am I really losing my mind (as it seems lately).

Seems like you played it fine to me. The only question is what you plan was on the turn when you called. If you were still thinking about bluffing the river then that might have been an error.

[Coilean]

Consider, your EV for calling the turn and folding the river unimproved is 8/46(+5.75BB)+38/46(-1BB) = +0.17BB (assuming an average 0.5BB river profit when you hit). If your opponent will fold the turn with probability X (and you win another 1BB those times you hit on the river, otherwise a river bluff starts to become too profitable), your EV for semibluffing the turn is X(+5.25BB)+(1-X)(8/46(+7.25BB)+38/46(-2BB)). As long as X > 0.10, the semibluff shows a profit of more than +0.17BB.

So what this boils down to is that you should consider making a raise on the turn here unless your opponent is especially tenacious. Given the board and prior action, you should more frequently have the hand than the draw, so most opponents should be willing to fold a pair more often than the 10% you require to show a profit over just calling to improve. Plus, raising here should help you get paid off more when you do have the goods on the turn. Just don't do it so often that your thinking opponents have odds to call down all the time or start making some funky 3-bets, reducing your profitability on the play.

Anyway, given that you don't raise the turn, I don't like your chances of getting a better hand to fold to a bet on the river. It seems very likely he has a pair, and very unlikely he's going to fold it now.

[Tyler Durden]

I think you played it fine, but you still might be losing your mind. You're getting up there in age.

There's $190 minus rake in this pot. Will a river bluff buy you the pot often enough? I think so, but what do you think?
Looks like he missed a flush.

[Tyler Durden]

I'm unsure of the players at this level but I think "a bluff-inducing check" is giving Party players far too much credit.

[ragedyandy]

Why wouldn't his opponent re-raise the flop before betting the turn? He must have hit the turn. I think hero is looking at either 2 pair or a set. Is this not likely? Is raising the turn still best?

[ACBob]

Jeffage,

I liked how you played the hand. Just one of those misses. Move on to the next hand.

Bob Lewis

[Jeffage]

I think this is a great post...my gut feeling was to raise this strange stop and go, but then I thought my opponent was looking for 3 bets possibly and you know what? I also thought that sometimes you need to actually make a hand to take down a pot and I felt this was one of those times. I feel a raise is good against the right person but doing this indisciminately can be quite costly...I agree that failing to raise the turn, a river bet is begging to be called.

Jeff

[Jeffage]

Another excellent post...what percentage of the time would you make this turn raise against a relatively unknown opponent? Would this be your default play in this spot when faced with the strange turn bet...do you worry he is looking for 3 bets and you might just be triple-charging yourself to suck out? I agree with your river thoughts considering my turn play.

Thanks,

Jeff

[Jeffage]

"Will a river bluff buy you the pot often enough? I think so, but what do you think?"

I dunno...I'm interested in exploring these gray areas in poker. I think if he missed his flush he would bet the river again...the pot is big enough that if he checks out of position he is just conceding it, the only way to win is bet. When he checks after betting the turn, my thought is that he is planning to call down with some kind of pair (looking to induce a weak bet or bluff).

Jeff

[Jeffage]

I think inducing a bluff is a relatively basic play at this level. I do have to give some Party players credit...while there are many bad players in these games, some are fantastic and some loose players happen to play extremely well/tricky postflop. There are many fish but also many sharks.

Jeff

[Jeffage]

Well, the result of this hand upset me, I'm not gonna lie (mostly because it was very unexpected). On the river, he checked and I checked behind. He showed A /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif for a shocking ace high to beat my king high. So I felt like a complete idiot. But honestly, I think he may have called the river with the ace if I bet. I would like more thoughts on whether most would think a turn raise is default with this betting sequence or what? I think it is good in spots but doing it automatically sounds like an expensive way to play a draw against an opponent who might want 3 big ones on the turn. I think I may be getting mad because I think I could have finessed my way to winning the pot, but maybe sometimes you need a hand to win in these heads up spots. Anyone feel like they try moves too often in these spots?

Thanks for responses and more are welcome.

Jeff

[Gabe]

Unless there is something you left out of your post, I would raise the turn.

[Coilean]

ragedyandy,

[ QUOTE ]
Why wouldn't his opponent re-raise the flop before betting the turn? He must have hit the turn. I think hero is looking at either 2 pair or a set.

[/ QUOTE ]

For one thing, the 5 appears an unlikely card to have helped opponent's hand much. For another, if opponent indeed had a big hand, he would probably reraise the flop and lead the turn (the best line, IMO), or smoothcall the flop and go for a check raise on the turn. I think it's more likely he has a modest (probably weakish K or decent J) hand and doesn't want to let Jeffage take a free card (in case he was raising with a flush draw). He didn't reraise the flop because he doesn't like his hand much, but he bet the turn because he feels he still might have the best hand.

[Coilean]

Jeffage,

[ QUOTE ]
what percentage of the time would you make this turn raise against a relatively unknown opponent?

[/ QUOTE ]

Against an unknown, I think you might as well always make the raise, and see what happens. The key here is that that should be a pretty scary board for him as it could easily have hit you, and he played his hand in a fairly wishy washy manner inconsistent with a big hand unless he's fairly tricky. And really, if he folds or calls it down with an ace high, that's also some good information to have.

It's more against observant regular opponents that I would take some care not to overuse the semibluff. Obviously, you should also adjust based on any recent history and/or knowledge of your opponent, so against weak tight players you can make this play until they notice and start calling you down with weaker hands, and against loose tenacious players you rarely do it unless you notice them making a few folds. It's just another one of those balancing acts you do when you are trying to play well.

[MrGo]

I think a bet on the turn by the opp. is an indicator bet. I would put him on weak king. I think I would re-raise the turn here...hoping he lets go of his hand. By you calling the turn and him checking the river, I believe that screams weak kicker. You bet, he calls.

[ragedyandy]

The 5 was on the flop. The turn was a 7. Opponent was BB, so he could easily have K7s, J7s, 77 - aren't those hands BB is likely to defend with?

Jeff is on a draw. What is Jeff hoping for when he raises the turn against an unknown opponent? If a turn raise is called, isn't he committed to bluffing the river when he misses(>80%) and is checked to (3 big bets)? What does Jeff do when he is re-raised on the turn, call with his 6-8 outs?

It seems like calling the turn and folding the river unimproved would be better. But I can't say that I followed your computations or assumptions in your original post.