Something About EV

[ZAC]

Hi,

I have been a long time lurker but never decided to register and post until today. I have been playing LLHE for about a year and I can safely say that I am holding my own in 2-4 and 3-6 (close to 1BB/hr in about 1000 hrs of play in a casino atmosphere). I only own 3 books - Jones' which was my primer, HPAP and TOP. I have a good grasp of the game like - good starting hands by position, pot odds, and a pretty decent post flop play. Although I have a good math background with some knowledge of statistics, I am too lazy do spend my time to do all the calculations and would rather memorize something that is readily available. That is, I don't believe in re-inventing the wheel.

I am just preparing to step up to a 5-10 or 6-12 and I think it is high time to learn about "EV". I have read that certain plays have +EV or -EV but have not read anything on how to determine this. Is this subject covered in any of the other Sklansky/Malmuth books or any other source?

Thank you for your help.

[crockpot]

there's a little section on it in TOP. sklansky refers to it as "expectation" rather than "expected value" or "EV".

basically, it just means the amount that a poker play such as a call or bet will win on average. for example, you have a draw that has a 30% chance to win, the pot is $50 and you put in $10 to call. since you will win $60 back 30% of the time (average of $18) and it costs $10 to call, your EV on this play is positive $8.

the concept behind pot odds is that you want to avoid plays with EV below zero.

[MaxPower]

TOP covers it. I believe it is also addressed in "Getting the Best of it" by Sklansky.

[Luke]

I have read that certain plays have +EV or -EV but have not read anything on how to determine this.

Many plays you make will generate a + or - EV but you will not be able to precisely calculate this like you can when determining things like pot odds and completing draws. The answer is often more of a judgment call you need to make based on numerous factors. Some people use computer simulatioin programs such as Wilson's Turbo to attempt to determine the EV of certain plays. While this is useful, I don't think it provides the final answer on all plays.

And the EV of certain plays is not always static. For example, in loose passive games it may be positive EV to limp UTG with pocket 4s but in a tight aggressive game this play would likely be negative EV.