Mirage 10-20: Raising with 99 and getting 3-bet isolated

[Dynasty]

Here's a hand I witnessed from a late Tuesday night Mirage 10-20 game. UTG was new to the game and had already raised twice pre-flop in MP/LP steal positions. But, both times he folded quickly post-flop without showing much aggression. I'll show the hand from this player's perspective. His MP opponent in the hand was a tourist unknown to me.

The hand:

UTG open-raises with 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/heart.gif. It's folded to MP who 3-bets. Everybody else folds to UTG who calls. Two players see the flop for 3 bets each.

The flop is: 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/spade.gif

UTG checks. MP checks.

The turn is: 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif

UTG checks. MP bets. UTG calls.

The river is: 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/spade.gifQ/images/graemlins/heart.gif4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG checks. MP bets. UTG calls and both hands get shown (not necessarily in proper order).

[gavrilo]

I like UTG's hand, not the way it was played, but I like his chances.

[Jeffage]

He should have been going for a checkraise on the flop (but apparently wasn't). When it went check-check, he should lead the turn (unless he is sure tourist will autobet the turn if checked to twice..then, he can consider checkraising or check-calling and leading the river if it isn't an ace or a king). In general, I would try to checkraise the flop but if it failed lead the turn.

Jeff

[adios]

"He should have been going for a checkraise on the flop (but apparently wasn't)."

Why wouldn't you think so? He checked didn't he?

[Jeffage]

I assume most people going for the checkraise on the flop would lead the turn when the queen came. Unless they feel like they are going to get raised on the turn or he will bet it for them. It's possible he planned to checkraise the flop but it didn't work out. Then he decided to halt the aggression when the queen came...just not the impression I get.

Jeff

[adios]

Ok possible rope-a-dope as well.

[skp]

The pot is heads-up. Once the flop arrives, UTG knows that he either has 2 outs or the other guy has 6 outs. The way to play this hand varies drastically from opponent to opponent. IMO, a simple and weak looking checkcall strategy all the way can be an acceptable way to play against certain opponents.

But what's up with the MP checking this flop after 3 betting preflop?

[karlson]

I have no idea what MP had, but I am tempted to claim that it was something like KQ.

If I'm utg, I bet the turn (assuming my opponent likely has 6 outs). If he's the type to check AK/AJ on the flop, he'll probably check again on the turn. If I'm raised, I think I fold. My initial reaction was to call down if raised, but I think that one of my biggest leaks is calling and trying to catch bluffs in spots like this.

Oh, once I check the turn. Hm. Maybe a raise is called for, but I am not going to argue with a call. He probably doesn't have TT or JJ that he would lay down (I can't imagine him checking the flop), so he either has us crushed or he has 6 outs. Hm. Maybe I should just fold the turn? Nah.

[Michael J. Sykes]

Would you please share your default strategy against an "unknown" opponent in this situation? Since most unknown opponents would bet this flop after having three-bet, I would usually go for a check-raise. If LP calls my raise, I will lead on the turn and usually fold to a raise (unless I picked up more outs). If LP three-bets the flop, I would call and check-fold the turn unless I picked up more outs. If I reach the river unimproved, I would bet for value if the turn was checked and the rivercard was not an ace. If I bet the turn and was called, I would always check-call the river. Otherwise, I would check and call unless the dreaded ace appeared.

-MJS

[Dynasty]

After MP bet the river, he turned over AKo. I was the EP with 99 and dragged the pot.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
I like UTG's hand, not the way it was played, but I like his chances.

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless the MP has 88, it's fairly easy to put him on overcards rather than an overpair. To me, that means he's very likely to have AK or AQ.

On the turn, when the Queen hits, my 99 is either crushed or still up against a 6-out hand. By checking a second time and signaling super weakness, I thought my opponent would put me on AK or some other weak no-pair hand such as AJ/AT. That gives him free reign to bet with anything. I had the impression this opponent was capable of putting me on an unimproved Ace after two consecutive checks so I went for the rope-a-dope.

I checked and called the river for the same reasons.

[skp]

Against an unknown opponent, I usually take the weak checkcall approach all the way. The reason I do this rather than betting or checkraising (particularly on the flop) is that I find that an unknown opponent's reaction to my actions will not be a very reliable gauage i.e., he could 3 bet or smoothcall with Ak just as he could 3 bet or smoothcall with a pocket pair.

If an Ace shows up on the turn, I usually bet out and fold to a raise ( a turn raise by my opponent is a much more reliable clue that he does have a big Ace. Also, my bet could get him to laydown a bigger pocket pair). I do also sometimes checkraise and sometimes checkfold when the turn is an Ace. I really cannot articulate why I exercise any particular option in a given hand against an unknown opponent (I can articulate my reasons against known opponents).

If an Ace comes on the river, I usually don't do anything fancy. It's probably checkfold.

[Michael J. Sykes]

Thanks for your response skp. Your default strategy is certainly lower variance than mine (except perhaps when you decide to check-raise the turn). I think a critical variable is the likelihood that you are leading on the flop. Given the circumstances of the specific hand, I probably overestimated the value of the 99. When you raise early with 99 and an unknown player three-bets from mid-late position, what do you feel is the likelihood that he holds a bigger pair? How small do you think this likelihood needs to be to justify more aggressive action (e.g., check-raising for value) on the flop?

-MJS