Stud Question froma 15-30 game

[pokerlover]

This situation came up about a year ago and I wanted to get everyone's imput:

15-30 stud $2 antes and $5 bring in.

Player A brings it in with the 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Player B completes in mid position with the 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Player C is rolled up with 9's and calls.
Player A calls.

4th street:
Player A gets K /images/graemlins/spade.gif
Player B pairs his door.
Player C catches a blank.

Player B bets $30.
Player C raises to $60
Player A calls.
Player B re-raises to $90.
Player C calls
Player A calls.

Now I can tell you that player A has 4 spades.
Player B has trip 7's
Player C has trip 9's.

How would you play this street in this situation from all the player's prospectives?

[7stud]

I would have folded the 4 flush on 4th street when the 7 paired his door card, bet and then was raised by the 9. I think the 7's raise on 3rd street plus pairing his door card makes it an automatic fold. Even if you don't fold on that bet, when the 7 reraises, then you have to assume trips, and fold to the reraise. I think the other players played it well, although if I was the 9, I would have reraised again: I wouldn't want to be playing against a flush draw and another player drawing to a full house.

Taking a look at the numbers:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=79487
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s as ks qs 3s - 9c 9d 9h 2c - 7c 7h 7d 3c
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks Qs 3s 110595 22.12 389403 77.88 2 0.00 0.221
9c 2c 9d 9h 268808 53.76 231192 46.24 0 0.00 0.538
7c 3c 7d 7h 120595 24.12 379403 75.88 2 0.00 0.241

That says the flush is about a 3.5:1 underdog to win the hand.

antes: $16 ante
3rd street: $15 + $15 + $15 = $45
4th street: 7's bet $30 + 9 raises to $60 + flush calls $60 + 7's reraise $60 + 9 calls $30 =$240 (what should the flush do here?)

total in the pot=$301

If everyone puts in $30 on each of the next 3 rounds, then the flush will have to put in a total of $120($30 more on this round + $90 in future bets) to win $481($301 + $90 + $90). That means the pot is offering odds of $481 to $120 or 4:1 odds.

Since the pot is offering 4:1 and the flush is 3.5:1 to win, it looks like the flush should actually call in that case. However, that analysis assumes no spades are out. If I rerun the numbers with 2 spades out:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=79509
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s as ks qs 3s - 9c 9d 9h 2c - 7c 7h 7d 3c / 5s 6s
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks Qs 3s 97141 19.43 402859 80.57 0 0.00 0.194
9c 2c 9d 9h 280882 56.18 219118 43.82 0 0.00 0.562
7c 3c 7d 7h 121977 24.40 378023 75.60 0 0.00 0.244

Then the odds of the flush winning the hand are 4.1:1, and therefore the flush should still fold to that last raise.

Also, notice that the numbers show the the trip 9's don't mind another player in the pot. The 9's are better than even money to win the pot, so keeping another player in and getting paid 2:1 on all future bets is worthwhile.

[StudStrategyCom]

Player A: Fold. The odds for the other two filling up with a one card draw are too high to be chasing a flush. Even though the odds to hitting the flush are still favorable.

Player B: Check-and-call depending on what the highest kicker in player B's hand is vs. the blank card that just showed up in player C's hand. Once filled up, bet/raise.

Player C: Bet. If raised, re-raise to check hand strength. If re-raised, check and call unless filled up.

Between player B and C get to the river as cheaply as possible so that either winning hand is not folding down on fear of a bluff that either player has filled up.

[7stud]

Looking over the numbers I ran in my first post, I now notice that I gave the flush one of the 7's pair cards. Running the numbers with the flush having a non pair card gives:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=79588
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s as ks qs 4s - 9c 9d 9h 2c - 7c 7h 7d 3c / 6s
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks Qs 4s 97668 19.53 402332 80.47 0 0.00 0.195
9c 2c 9d 9h 266913 53.38 233087 46.62 0 0.00 0.534
7c 3c 7d 7h 135419 27.08 364581 72.92 0 0.00 0.271

So, if the flush couldn't see a dead pair card, the odds of the flush winning the pot were longer at 3.8 to 1. If one flush card was dead, running the numbers gives:

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=79588
pokenum -mc 500000 -7s as ks qs 4s - 9c 9d 9h 2c - 7c 7h 7d 3c / 6s
7-card Stud Hi: 500000 sampled outcomes
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ks Qs 4s 97668 19.53 402332 80.47 0 0.00 0.195
9c 2c 9d 9h 266913 53.38 233087 46.62 0 0.00 0.534
7c 3c 7d 7h 135419 27.08 364581 72.92 0 0.00 0.271

and the flush bumps up to a 4.12 to 1 underdog, so the pot wouldn't have offered the correct odds to call after the 7's reraised.

I also ignored the rake which at $3 will decrease the real pot odds slightly(from 4.01:1 to 3.98:1).

[Dynasty]

You're also giving the flush draw a straight draw as well. Without the straight draw, the hand gets even weaker.

[pokerlover]

Player A hit his spade on 5th street.
Players B and C did not fill up.

There was some discussion on the hand afterwards if Player A should have called 2 big bets on 4th street and if Player C should have made it 4 bets on 4th street if player A would have folded. Player C felt that if Player A called 2 bets cold on 4th street he would have called two additional raises on the same street.

5th street was bet by the 7's and called by the 9's and raised by the flush. It was bet on 6th by the flush and checked around on the river. Needless to say it was a pretty big pot.

[MRBAA]

9s cap
7s call
four flush, fold when it's two to me.

[MRBAA]

Here's why I'd not call with the flush draw -- if he doesn't hit on fifth, you and the sevens are going at least two bets
(he bets, you raise, he finally believes you have trips and calls) and if one or both of you fill, he can get middled in capped betting on any street drawing dead. He can easily lose 12 or more bb by calling the two cold. By contrast, the way the hand actually played out was his dream scenario and he only collected 8bb.

[Andy B]

OK, so if the Nines four-bet on fourth street, the other guy won't fold. So what? Doesn't he want to get more money in with much the best hand? Actually, I would probably have waited until fifth to pop it, as raising on fourth tends to tip one's hand, but once everyone's in, why not raise?

Calling $60 cold with a flush draw is a significant mistake, especially with the pot still pretty small. What did he think the guy with the Nine was raising on?

[7stud]

[ QUOTE ]
There was some discussion on the hand afterwards

[/ QUOTE ]

How many spades were dead?

[pokerlover]

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:
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There was some discussion on the hand afterwards


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How many spades were dead?

[/ QUOTE ]

There was only one visible spade out on the board and that came on 4th street.

[7stud]

Were there any spades folded on 3rd street?

[pokerlover]

No. Just the one on 4th street. They were very much alive from what the board showed.

[7stud]

It was a mistake for the flush to call with one flush card out at either decision point on 4th street--that is assuming everyone was playing their cards face up. However, it wasn't a big mistake, and the uncertainty as to the exact holdings of the other opponents increases the odds of the flush winning the pot(e.g. if there was a 90% chance the 7's had trips, a 9.5% chance of two pair, and a .5% chance of quads.)

One problem with the hand that MRBAA mentioned is that the flush is in a reverse implied odds situation, i.e. the three of a kinds could extract more than just one bet each round from the flush reducing the real pot odds.