40-80 hand

[andyfox]

We're temporarily 6-handed as 3 players are emphasemizing their lungs. I open UTG with K /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif. Much to my dismay, all the non-blinds cold-call, as well as one blind. 5 players.

Flop comes K /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Blind checks, I bet, Mr. A-B-C calls, Mr. pretty damn tough and tricky calls. 3 of us now.

Turn is the T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I bet, A-B-C calls, tough and tricky raises.

Now what?

[Clarkmeister]

With your image this should be an easy fold.

[mike l.]

"I bet, A-B-C calls, tough and tricky raises."

what a mess.

but is it really? theyre scared to death of you andy espeically tough tricky guy. he plays well, he has to be scared of you. he thinks he can blow you off a hand though. 3 em andy. make em pay dearly.

or go limp and call down. but you cant fold here. not against tough guy.

[mike l.]

"With your image this should be an easy fold."

doesnt it occur to you that that's exactly what tought/tricky is thinking as well?

[ALL1N]

The guy is tough. So what are you putting him on when you fold, please?

[Rick Nebiolo]

Andy,

I'd say you are a big favorite to be beat in at least one of two spots. Mr. Tough and Tricky is making a big turn move and he has two guys to worry about. You alone he might try to push off or slow down but with Mr. ABC in and closing the action (if you call) he probably has real strength with his raise. I'd say a set is most likely although a straight is possible (especially if he was last or nearly last to act BTF). Mr. ABC could have hands that beat you too, although a flush draw is by far most likely.

That being said, I see some ways you can still be ahead or redraw against some hands that beat you (two pair). It probably costs you only two more big bets to see the river (if the river is bet and raised give it up) and if you hold up you win about 14 big bets. Also note that sometimes the river gets checked down. All this makes calling much better than folding IMO.

A reraise must be considered. Mr. ABC might fold some of his weaker flush draws and you want this. If Mr. Tough and Tricky caps you can probably release and sleep at night. But at the table I'd usually call (maybe that's why I play yellow chip ;-) ).

Regards,

Rick

[brad]

well with this twotone flop and the Ten really coordinating the board for like QJ, how sure were you that you would be riased on the turn?

i guess 33%.

i can think of a lot of hands would raise turn (in last position), KT, AT,QJ,89,some sets, any King really, spades of some sort, etc.

personally since ABC probably doesnt have a monster i dont think you can fold since many hands button could have look great (AT of spades) but dont really have that many outs against you if ABC is on spades too as you put him on.

given size of pot i dont think ABC will go anywhere so i would just call and check river.

[elysium]

hi andy
you can lay it down. when the tricky raises, he is fully expecting the call here. he is not bluffing. it looks like 2 pair, but it could just as easily be something else that means you're drawing dead. you would need 20 to 1 pott odds or better to make calling correct. this is the tricky's tough side.

mr. sklansky says that there are situations in which you're getting correct pot odds on paper, but that the way the hand was played still makes you a 1000 to 1 shot. this looks like that type of situation here; this is a clear fold.

[Clarkmeister]

Of course I thought about it. Somehow I doubt Andy's image is weak tight though.

But even tough players are almost never making a move in this spot. Tight aggressive bets into a large field twice when a king-rag fop comes, people don't chose times like this to make a move, especially when its an innocuous card on the turn and the pot is protected. Do you get the impression that Andy plays so weak that people think he'll muck AK here? I don't, and thats why he can fold. About the only hand he has that beats Andy if he really is tight and tough is TsXs that picked up a pair on the turn. But this requires that he colcalled ANDY's UTG raise with a suited garbage hand.

No, even "tough" players don't screw around in these spots enough to make calling profitable.

[SoBeDude]

No, even "tough" players don't screw around in these spots enough to make calling profitable.

But he also called him tricky, which is probably a big part of his 'tough' moniker. A player that reliably raises his big hands on the turn doesn't qualify as Tough OR Tricky, does he??

I think I'd be more apt to fold if Mr. A-B-C is raising me on the turn. When he raises, you know you're behind. When tricky raises, he can have all sorts of hands, right?

I'd call him down, or if he's been taking shots lately, I'd 3-bet him and see what happens.

-Scott

[brad]

thing is though if youre in buttons shoes and andy bets the turn and abc calls so you put him on a draw, what hands would you call with but not raise with?

with the pot so big i really think its correct to raise and try to knock andy out especially since he could just have QQ or JJ., thus getting heads up against very probable draw.

problem is that a lot of buttons monster hands like KJ of spades and AT of spades are no brainer raises.

[mikelow]

Perhaps a turn check was better, but I would call it down.

[andyfox]

I called the turn raise. So did A-B-C. I considered 3-betting, but since I might be behind and drawing dead, it didn't seem wise. I also considered folding since he was raising the two of us. But the pot was too big to fold, I was sure I was ahead of A-B-C and I might have redraw outs if I was behind.

River was the A /images/graemlins/club.gif, making board K /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif6 /images/graemlins/spade.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gifA /images/graemlins/club.gif

Now what?

[Gabe]

Bet out.

[Clarkmeister]

"I think I'd be more apt to fold if Mr. A-B-C is raising me on the turn."

Of course. Ain't a lot of ABC's at the 40-80 level though.

" When he raises, you know you're behind. When tricky raises, he can have all sorts of hands, right?"

Maybe. If he weren't also tough. I can promise you this though. If you never fold to tough but tricky player on the turn in a protected pot, then you are going to be shown a better hand basically every time. Andy's only salvation here is that the pot is enourmous.

I still maintain that Andy's image, T&T's awareness of Andy's image of him as T&T, the size of the pot (surely T&T realizes Andy is unlikely to fold in a pot this big when he has a hand worthy of betting both the flop and turn) and the presense of the obviously beaten but still present 3rd player all combine to mean that Andy is drawing to 2 or 3 outs most of the time here. Since his effective odds are half of his pot odds (obviously we are going to showdown if we are calling the turn), its IMO a better play to muck here.

[Clarkmeister]

"I considered 3-betting, but since I might be behind and drawing dead, it didn't seem wise"

Putting the hand in a vaccuum, 3-betting is a bad choice here. Assuming you are behind, you'd have to get 3rd player to fold a hand that improves more than yours if you improve. That seems highly unlikely as no flush draw is folding. Couple this with the fact that you don't want to get 4-bet and calling is the superior option to raising.

[mike l.]

you bet that river card. they have to be scared of you and maybe you even get a better hand to laydown here. seriously i think given your tightass image you might be one of the few who can do it here.

they cant raise you unless they have something stone cold huge so you can easily drop out to a river raise, and you want to call a bet since the pot is so big, so the only favorable play here on the river is to bet and it's not close at all.

[Clarkmeister]

Hey, we agree on something finally!

The chance to get a better hand to fold makes betting a must.

[jen]

That seems like a desperate river bet to me. What hand could Andy possibly be holding in which the A /images/graemlins/club.gif helped? Seems like a tricky, thinking player would realize that and raise a river bet regardless of what he's got.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
That seems like a desperate river bet to me. What hand could Andy possibly be holding in which the A /images/graemlins/club.gif helped? Seems like a tricky, thinking player would realize that and raise a river bet regardless of what he's got.

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, AK?

[Rushmore]

Would this hand have been easier to play if you had the additional information and/or elimination of A-B-C with a check raise on the flop?

If you lose Mr. A-B-C when it's 2 cold to him on the flop, you have a much less murky task. Mr. tough/tricky will have less cover, right?

Should A-B-C bet the flop after you check, tough/tricky's smooth call becomes a red flag, as you know he would be looking to push you off if he were to have a questionable king. If he should make it 2 bets, you can raise in another attempt to push A-B-C out, then bet out when a blank hits the turn, or check-call if the board further coordinates.

I dunno. Just another perspective. Maybe not worth a damn.

[cjx]

I think most have put ABC on the flush draw... and I would guess it's Ax spades and then put tricky one of three hands, either KTo, 89, or QJ spades. Given that the first two listed would have him most likely ahead and the third features so many outs he'd be hard pressed not to bet to try and scare off a hand like yours.

In any case I think you check/call the river because ABC probably won't go away with his Ax (so much in the pot now) and tricky has made a winning hand... might as well get some information from him if you play him often. Perhaps you check raise tricky finally scaring off ABC's weak ace and maybe knocking out tricky, but I think he has a hand.

Feel free to tell me where I am totally wrong, but that looks like it to me... granted I would have never come to this conclusion in the time it took to play the hand, but... that's why I've spent so much time lurking here trying to learn from you guys.

cjx

[Rick Nebiolo]

Andy,

Mike says the river is easy (haven't looked yet) so I'll risk putting my foot in my mouth.

Bet the river and fold to a raise and it isn't close. Mr. ABC probably folds ace high flush draws. Mr. Tricky could fold two pair (fearing you hit AA or AK). The overlay on this is so huge it is worth the "risk" of one big bet.

Regards,

Rick

[adios]

Why do you think this pot is "protected" (not saying it isn't)? Size of the pot or because of A-B-C or both or something else (serious question)? Seems like A-B-C COULD be on flush draw. If so Ace on the river is bad news I would think. Anyway if tough player puts A-B-C on a flush draw seems like he might think he could take it down with 2nd best hand if he gets Andy to fold.

[Rick Nebiolo]

cjx,

If Mr. ABC had Ax suited he lays down what is now a weak pair of aces in a jiffy because it wasn't the hand he was drawing to and the "action" from his point of view indicates a single pair won't win. Even a more sophisticated and tenacious player would have trouble calling in this spot.

That's why a bet is so correct.

Regards,

Rick

[elysium]

hi andy
you didn't fold on the turn.....hmmmm. well, don't bet when the SB checks to you. he may be going for a check-raise, not likely, but possible.

one of the reasons i like folding this on the turn is that in addition to only sub-optimal pot odds, a K falling on the river increases your risk. the K is not a good out for you here. on the turn, your down to just two good outs. now, the K is a clean out, but not a good one. on the turn you have to see this happening on the river, and then asking, 'is this what i really want?'. because andy, what more other than an A landing, could you possibly expect here?

the K isn't so glamorous anymore.

since correct pot odds in this case depend upon implied pot odds, not the odds you're getting on the turn, you must ask yourself on the turn, 'what will my implied odds be if my hand improves?'. well, you should quickly see that they are not very good.

you are ok if you bet and get the fold, but that doesn't give you correct odds. you're betting and getting the fold isn't what you want either. i agree it's better than losing, but so is never being in this hand in the first place. beyond the turn andy. no, you don't want the fold, you want the call. and that's not good.

when you bet in this situation, you should want to call a raise. and you must bet. oh, you could check, but only the winner will bet when you check, and all hands that you're ahead of that would have called will check behind. and any hands that beat you will bet and you must call so you must bet. but this guy is tricky, and if he raises you must call.

on the turn, you should see how when you improve you are still left with a tangle. it's like when you're fishing and finally hook a big one. you set the hook and start to reel, and then remember that on the turn, you baited the hook properly; you were using ballyhoo; you did everything according to hoyle to give the ballyhoo a natural wiggle through the water; you gave the ballyhoo proper weight in led so that he traveled through the water at the proper depth; and he was clean. he was a clean ballyhoo. and as you're reeling in this wonderful fish your ballyhoo attracted, you suddenly remember, 'my gosh. i forgot to disentangle the line.' you did everything right except that you baited a tangled line that at that time you decided to take care of later. disentangle later you see. well, just because a tangle is far from the hook, doesn't mean that you can wait until later to untangle it. you have to see the tangle on the river while still on the turn. if you wait until the tangle comes to you, the big fish will find enough purchase to snap the line, and you lose the fish and your ballyhoo rig as well.

when mr. skansky says that the way a hand has been played sometimes means you're a 1000 to 1 shot, what he's saying is that there is a tangle in the line. you have a 1000 to 1 shot of being able to grab the line on either side of the tangle, giving it one sharp pull, and hoping for disentanglement. otherwise you must cut the tangle out and fold. hooking the fish does you no good with a tangle in the line.

[Gabe]

AA AK. The bet makes the situation almost bluff-raise proof.

[anatta]

I am trying to put tough, tricky on a hand.

Two pair:
KT: Even six handed, a tough player knows to fold KTo vs. Andy's UTG raise, especially with ABC cold caller. The only KTs is KsTs.

K7s, K6s: Again, it seems that there is only one combination. Very loose preflop, no raise on the flop.

T7, T6; Too loose, taking one off on flop probably wrong with flush draw.

76s: Pretty loose preflop to call a raise with one cold caller with connectors. May have chosen to raise flop with this hand. Andy also has 8 outs to beat this hand although the spade outs are tainted.

A set: TT no preflop reraise. He would probably raise or fold with this hand on the flop.

77, 66: The most likely hand that beats Andy. I would raise the flop here most of the time with the 67 on the board, but waiting for the turn to raise to see if flush gets there is something that I do sometimes.

A str8: 98s. This is a very likely hand. Preflop is somewhat loose, but the flop play is certainly consistent.

Another made hand which beats Andy is AK, but most will three bet this especially in a six handed game.

So on the hands that beat Andy, I think he could have KsTs, a slowplayed set of 77s or 66s, or 98s. He is drawing dead to all but KsTs where he has 2 outs.


The player is tough and TRICKY. He knows ABC is on a draw. He could be making a move with:

T9 or a pair with a flush draw like JTs.

KQ or KJ: I don't know, he could have these. lol. I am getting tired.


My conclusion. I think its close, but I would call against a tricky player. If he has a set, good for him, but since ABC is very likely on a draw, the pot isn't really "protected" to that great of an extent. Yes, even if Andy folds, he still needs to beat ABC, but one pair should do it.

[jen]

Andy didn't raise pre-flop. How could he be holding AK?

[jen]

I disagree. Andy didn't raise pre-flop. He limped UTG. He flat called the turn raise. His play screams big K.

In my opinion, betting the river gives the guy behind an easy bluff river raise to win the pot.

[cosmo kramer]

[andyfox]

I did raise pre-flop. My original post was not clear on this. Sorry.

[andyfox]

I checked the river. I didn't think Mr. A-B-C would fold an ace here, given the size of the pot. (He might, however, fold to a check-raise from me.)

But I didn't have to make that check-raise. Both opponents checked behind. And my hand was good.

Mr. A-B-C claimed to have been on a flush draw, but took a good look at my hand before mucking, so K-J was not impossible. And I'm not so sure Mr. Tricky didn't have K-J also; maybe J /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/spade.gif? or J /images/graemlins/spade.gifT /images/graemlins/spade.gif?

My original post should have been clearer. I raised pre-flop (I assumed regular posters here would know I raised and I said the others cold-called, but I should have said I raised, not I opened). Mr. Tricky was not the blind; he raised the turn (not check-raised).

[Gabe]

We assumed everyone knew you have never limped UTG.

[brad]

i think best reason to bet is if ABC is on Ax flush draw and just made top pair no kicker.

now if andy bets out and with turn raiser behind him hes got to fold.

[elysium]

hi again andy
i didn't reread your post and remembered it as being AK instead of KQ. on the river you did correct to check. the point is that even had a Q hit on the river, you still are in a sub-optimal situation. sorry for the confusion....i mean tangle. it's still tanglie though.

[andyfox]

I don't know. An awfully big pot to lay down. Plus he wouldn't think the Ace helped the turn raiser.

But maybe.