Am I playing too conservatively? Or too wild?

[Dru Lee Parsec]

I've been playing a lot of $1-$2 online. For my $50 investment I've been able to play about 12 hours. I was up to $300 at one point, moved to the $3-$6 and lost most of it. I know what the mistake there was. I moved to higher limits when my bankroll couldn't support it. I also chased way too many pots.

So now I'm back at $1-$2. I'm folding most hands. I'm playing very tight and only seeing the flop when I have a good hand (according to both Lee Jones and Sklansky) or if I'm in the big blind and can check. Occasionally I'll play a group 5 or 6 hand from the button or in very late position if nobody else is showing strength so I think my pre-flop play is pretty good.

My mistakes seem to be in post flop play. When I fold a hand I watch what hands are winning. I often see a single high pair win the hand. I see people playing 3-8 offsuit and winning. I see people winning with a pair of 4s and so on. But I'm playing it tight and then play aggresivly when I have cards to play.

So I get cards like A /images/graemlins/heart.gif10/images/graemlins/heart.gif and I call The flop comes J/images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif so I have a flush draw and a straight draw and even a straight flush draw. The odds of hitting a flush draw with 2 cards left are 38% so I need about 4:1 pot odds to call. The pot odds are good so I call.

The turn is 7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif Odds of getting my flush card with one card left is about 22% or roughly 5 to 1. So I need $10 in the pot for me to put in my $2 bet. The pot odds are good so I bet. I get one caller. The river is 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and I caught my my nut flush. I bet and I get raised. At this point I go nuts and raise back BUT let's think about this. One of 3 things is happening.

1. He's trying to steal the pot
2. He has what he thinks is a strong hand but my nut flush is better.
3. He has a stronger hand. So he has to have a pair of 8's for 4 of a kind or a pair of 7's, J's or K's. But he didn't show strength on early betting rounds so I don't think he has KK or JJ.

OR he can have 78, 8J, or 8K for a 8 over xx full boat. So there are 6 hands than can beat me. He raises my raise and I call. He has 7 8.

So I guess I'm wondering if I should be more afraid of those weird hands that could beat my good hand, or if there's a rule of thumb like "If there are only 2 hands that can beat you then go ahead and bet, if there are 3 or more hands that can beat you then fold". Or did I play it OK and the odds just got me. Normally a nut flush would win on these tables but I'm starting to wonder if I should play even less aggresivly with good hands out of "fear" that the odd weird had will beat me. But that seems like I'm cutting my losses without optimizing my wins.

Or, should I just add a rule to my play that if I have a flush and a pair shows up on the board then check and call instead of raise every time out of fear of the full house?

What do you think?

[Inthacup]

The odds of hitting a flush draw with 2 cards left are 38% so I need about 4:1 pot odds to call. The pot odds are good so I call.

You should be seeing the river with this hand without thinking drawing odds.


Since there was no preflop raising, I'd rule out KK and JJ. He's going to have a lower flush, 2 pair, an 8 or even a strait more often than he's going to have the full house. I'd 3-bet the river just as you did.

[Bob T.]

With more than two opponents, you have both a straight and flush draw, for 13 outs, so you should be betting, and reraising the flop. Additionally, your ace 'might' be an out.

On the turn, you need 3-1 on this betting round to break even on your bet, you need 4-1 in the pot to call a bet. Unless you think that you have some chance of winning the pot, or unless you think you will get more than 3 callers, you don't have a bet on the turn.

On the river, I would have played it the same way, I think that your opponent might have made a mistake, by not capping the betting on the river, because he is probably better than 50% to be winning here, and you can't reraise a 4 bet online.

[Dru Lee Parsec]

Since there was no preflop raising, I'd rule out KK and JJ. He's going to have a lower flush, 2 pair, an 8 or even a strait more often than he's going to have the full house. I'd 3-bet the river just as you did.

That's good to know. Maybe I should have raised pre-flop to push out hands like 7-8 offsuit? And do you think I should always check/call with a flush if there's a pair on the board? After all, after the river he knows exactly what he has and he sees the 3 flush on the board. He has to know that he has a flush beat or he's bluffing.

Thanks for your advice. I appreciate it.

Greg

[CrackerZack]

[ QUOTE ]
So I get cards like A 10 and I call The flop comes J K 8 so I have a flush draw and a straight draw and even a straight flush draw. The odds of hitting a flush draw with 2 cards left are 38% so I need about 4:1 pot odds to call. The pot odds are good so I call.

The turn is 7 Odds of getting my flush card with one card left is about 22% or roughly 5 to 1. So I need $10 in the pot for me to put in my $2 bet. The pot odds are good so I bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 2 different points here. First, you have 12 outs with 47 cards to come (9 to the flush, 3 Qs) so you're less to a 3-1 dog to make it on the turn, considering you have 2 shots at this you're solidly under 2-1 (probably around 1.6 - 1), so you should probably raise this huge draw on the flop when you're bet into. If only 2 people call the raise you're +EV, if more do, amen. On the turn you know have 12 out of 46 so still less than 3-1, but this is not a reason to bet. You don't use pot odds to determine whether to bet, only whether to call a bet. The only reason to consider pot odds when betting is figuring how often a bluff has to work to be profitable. A bet here may not be a bad thing as you're gonna improve about 27% of the time to the nuts or near nuts (if the board pairs) so given that and the size of a the pot, if you think there is a chance all your opponents will fold, then betting is probably correct. On the river I'd 3-bet also.

[CrackerZack]

Now bob... stop counting that Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif twice /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[Bob T.]

After all, after the river he knows exactly what he has and he sees the 3 flush on the board. He has to know that he has a flush beat or he's bluffing.


Or he could have a lessor flush, or maybe trips.

[Bob T.]

But the Queen of hearts is for a straight flush, I almost should count it twice. Oops, thanks. That's what I get for posting in the morning, or early afternoon. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[GoCelts33]

I'm with BigLick on this one. You've got enough outs to raise and this will get the junk out of there. If you're in a really tight game that you can bully people around then consider raising preflop. Besides, when you make an Ace high flush and get beaten by a cheap 8s full of 7s, its a bad thing if you DON'T lose alot

[Dru Lee Parsec]

Besides, when you make an Ace high flush and get beaten by a cheap 8s full of 7s, its a bad thing if you DON'T lose alot

I'm not sure I understand that sentence. Do you mean that because I played reasonably correctly and they played a really bad hand (and just got lucky) that I'm still ok because in the long run their bad plays will put money in my stack?

[Dru Lee Parsec]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't use pot odds to determine whether to bet, only whether to call a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a HUGE piece of information that I've missed. That's a subtle but important difference. Thank you for pointing that out.

[MaxPower]

Hi Dru,

This is true, but if the pot is big enough to justify a call if your opponent bet, than you should often bet yourself (except against calling stations).

In the future when you post hands, you should specify what position you and the other players are in as this has a large effect on how you should play the hand.