Mirage 20-40: Great blind steal opportunity, good flop, but I'm beaten

[Dynasty]

This hand is from a late Saturday night/early Sunday morning Mirage 20-40 game. The game was loose at times but more aggressive than I usually like. This hand had a strange pre-flop situation I haven't encountered before.

The hand:

Small Blind posts but the Big Blind forgets to post her $20. The cards are dealt and the Big Blind quickly looks at her two cards and mucks. UTG folds. Then, the dealer recognizes the Big Blind mucked without posting. The Big Blind is a bit upset at what she's done but doesn't complain knowing it's her own fault. She posted her $20 blind but she's already out of the hand.

Everybody folds to me two positons of the button where I've got Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif3/images/graemlins/spade.gif, a hand I would only attempt to steal the blinds with if they, as well as the Cutoff and Button, were fairly tight. With the Big Blind out of the hand, I raise. Cutoff folds but the Button calls. The Button is a fairly tight player (ex: folded K9o in the Big Blind to a Cutoff steal raise earlier). Small Blind folds. The flop is seen by myself and the Button.

The flop is: A/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/spade.gif3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I'm first to act and bet. The Button raises. If a third player had been in the pot, or if I had position, I would make it 3 bets. But, against this opponent, who won't fold any Ace heads-up, I chose to call.

The turn is: A/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/spade.gif3/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/heart.gif

I check. Button bets. I call.

The river is: A/images/graemlins/spade.gif9/images/graemlins/spade.gif3/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/heart.gif4/images/graemlins/spade.gif

I checked.

[M.B.E.]

As to the preflop turn of events, sounds like it was largely the dealer's fault, and only a little bit that of the player. It shows some class that after mucking she posted the $20 without making a stink about it.

As to the play on the river, did you have particular knowledge about this player to expect him to bet the river, or would you have done the same against most anyone? I find that with just one pair, most players won't bet the river if a flush card hits, even from last position. Aside from thinking that you might have made a flush and be planning to checkraise, they think that you could have hit two-pair, and are planning to check-call because you're afraid of a possible flush.

Mathematically, how certain do you have to be that your opponent will bet to make it correct to go for a checkraise? I'm guessing it's slightly more than 50%, because of the slim chance he has K/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/spade.gif.

[Graham]

I don't think checking the river was a good plan here. He's too likely to check behind the scare card.

G

[elysium]

hi dynasty
i think that you can reraise the flop, but it looks ok. his not folding a weak A at that point in the hand isn't an argument against reraising, it's an argument for it. that's my only concern; the thought process on the flop.

i like the turn check, smart. of course with a K high i'm sure you would have raised.

you check-raised the river....hmmmm. well, you'll have to call the reraise.

i think you should bet the river here dynasty. when he raises, you save a bet. your call of his 2 bet with your non-nut hand is better than your call of his 3 bet.

one reason for reraising the flop is to set up the bet, raise call pattern on the turn and river if you hit your flush on the turn, and even if you don't. your call on the flop set up a check, bet, ? pattern on the turn that hurt you on the river. you can't do a sudden reversal after the flush hits on the river given your read. this problem began developing on the flop. so you do the only thing you can, you check and hope he bets his weak ace or two pair. but, you should have seen your holding as being a non-nut on the flop; a non-nut that can improve. on the flop, your so strong that you could hot and cold cap it. now checking on the turn is ok because your sudden reversal will be called on the river. if you check-call the turn, you have him tied to the pot. the way you played it, i think you should have check-raised the turn actually. but he won't fold, and so no....that won't work.

you need to reraise the flop so that if you complete your flush, you can establish a bet, raise, call pattern.

here, you're hither and yon a bit producing an avoidable reinforced river sting; the bee having sucked all the nectar you left on the table when you failed to reraise the flop. the honey jar reraise....maybe aunt emma was right.

[risen]

[ QUOTE ]

here, you're hither and yon a bit producing an avoidable reinforced river sting; the bee having sucked all the nectar you left on the table when you failed to reraise the flop. the honey jar reraise....maybe aunt emma was right.

[/ QUOTE ]

What the hell happened to the coherent post? Did you drop acid before writing that last paragraph? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Softrock]

Hi Dynasty - I have read the other posts and there are questions about checking the river. You don't say what your thnking was. My thinking is that this play works better against a decent player as the one you describe who is more likely to value bet the river and is less likely to be afraid of the flush card given that you two were headsup. You didn't actually say that you were intending to check-raise however - we have all assumed this. Given that you have the second nut flush, I doubt that you are checking out of fear of the one hand that can beat you??

I'm more interested in your retrospective thoughts on the steal raise BTF. These can be high variance plays - when they're calling you down and they hit a few flops you can begin to wonder if it's +EV. I think it's important to really think about the quality of the blinds, their tendencies, as well as who is left behind you. I generally play pretty tight and a raise from me gets respect. I've generally been successfull with these types of raises in late position, but recently I think I got carried away with the play and have backed off and become more selective.

There is side benefit here. When you do show down a hand there will be thoses at the table that didn't understand your reasons for raising BTF and will believe you are looser than is actually the case.

As to the hand - my guess is it got checked behind you and you wished you'd bet the river.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

I see no problem here. If you bet, a worse hand might not call, but a better hand will certainly raise. If you check tho, a worse hand is certainly very likely to bet, in which case you of course call and make a bet without risking a raise. It's not really that likely he had a K high flush draw against your Q high, but if he did have that, he might play it that way, so checking is again fine. If he checks behind, well, that's OK too. I'm fine with your going conservative on the river here. You can't realistically fold tho.

al

[skp]

Dynasty raised preflop. Preflop raisers don't usually make flushes. Button knows this. Dynasty knows that Button knows this.

Dyansty appears to think that the button does have an Ace (although I am not sure why this guy would coldcall preflop with an Ace rather than 3 betting). In any event, if Dynasty's read is accurate, then going for the checkraise is fine because I think that the button will value bet his Ace.

Overall, I would bet the river not because I fear the button checking down an Ace but because I fear that the button may not have an Ace. Also, betting out when I have the flush helps on those occasions when I bet out without a flush.

[Graham]

Al: If you bet, a worse hand might not call, but a better hand will certainly raise. If you check tho, a worse hand is certainly very likely to bet, in which case you of course call and make a bet without risking a raise.

At this point, from the betting, this guy most likely has some kind of made hand and a flush card just arrived after Dynasty showed strength on the flop and check-called the turn.
I'd say it's backward from what you say, Al. If you bet, the worse hand likely will call. If you check, the worse hand is very unlikely to bet, unless it's another flush or a bluff. This opp was described as tight.
(a better hand will of course raise - as you say - since that would have to be the nuts)

[lockitup]

Dynasty described this player as fairly tight, which, to my mind, doesn't necessarily mean "decent." A lot of "fairly tight" players see monsters under the bed and will check behind in this situation. In fact, "fairly tight" might describe someone who doesn't value bet the river enough.

I would bet the river.

[Dynasty]

After I checked the river, my opponent checked behind me. I showed my flush and she was properly disgusted.

[HavanaBanana]

[ QUOTE ]
The Button is a fairly tight player (ex: folded K9o in the Big Blind to a Cutoff steal raise earlier).

[/ QUOTE ]

How did you know? And if the player did it on purpose, maybe it was an advertising show?

[Piers]

Q3s is pritty weak, still given the dead money in the pot raising cant be that bad.

On the flop with 14 outs against an ace I am putting as many bets in as I can, so definatly reraising.

Check call the turn (Well I am now behind)

Whether to bet or check raise the river depends on the opponent. Guess you dont get to know there %BTR offline.

[Mike Gallo]

Why did you check the river?


~MG~

[RollaJ]

Its a heads up situation post flop and he can easily betting an ace or a big pair (10-K) that he smooth called preflop. Id say you have to bet because he will call with any of the above as it looks like you are making a play at the pot, further with many of the above he will just check behind

[Rick Nebiolo]

Al,

This type of guy often doesn't bet the turn with a flush draw. I'd bet the river because he may check down his ace but if he bets I'm checkraising.

~ Rick

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
QOn the flop with 14 outs against an ace I am putting as many bets in as I can, so definatly reraising.

[/ QUOTE ]

Even under ideal circumstances, this is a break-even proposition heads-up:

Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing As 9s 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs 3s 496 50.10 494 49.90 0 0.00 0.501
6c Ah 494 49.90 496 50.10 0 0.00 0.499

If your opponent has a stronger hand such as AQ or 99, you're in far worse shape. At the table, I acually thought it was slightly negative against something like A6o (something like 52/48 against me).

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you check the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

There are only two possibilities. Either I thought I was beat or I was check-raising with a flush that was extremely hard to put me on.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
How did you know? And if the player did it on purpose, maybe it was an advertising show?

[/ QUOTE ]

The player showed her friend sitting on her right and I was able to see. Her friend said he would never fold K9o against his (Cutoff's) raise.

It was not advertising. Why would you advertise how easy it is to steal your blinds?

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
Why did you check the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

Umm check-raise ?

[lockitup]

Ok... what was your plan if the button bet?

I can't imagine you thought you were beat. If it was hard to put you on a flush, isn't it even harder to put your opponent on one?

[Dynasty]

I was trying to check-raise the river.

[RollaJ]

[ QUOTE ]
I was trying to check-raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ] Doesnt it just hurt to have to spell that out for people...LOL

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok... what was your plan if the button bet?

I can't imagine you thought you were beat. If it was hard to put you on a flush, isn't it even harder to put your opponent on one?

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't imagine that you think that he thought he was beat.

He was blatantly trying to check raise the river. I don't know how his opponent put him on a flush, more likey she was just weak.

[lockitup]

Of course I didn't. I was just being stubborn. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

My point, if I had one, was that the reasons to check or bet in this pot have little to do with whether you think you're ahead, but rather the likelihood that your opponent will bet.

Never mind... pointless post.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
but rather the likelihood that your opponent will bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Of course but you have to be pretty confident she will bet here given prior action.

[ QUOTE ]
Never mind... pointless post.

[/ QUOTE ]

They're my favourite! /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Tommy Angelo]

Dyansty,

Several years here and this is the first play of yours that I'd say was an out and out mistake. Your check on the river. If your opponent checks behind, it won't be because of the flush card coming, it will be because you raised before the flop, you bet the flop, you called a flop raise, you called the turn, and now the obvious thing to put you on is an ace that you decided to back down with and get to the showdown with. So any cautious player will be very happy to check behind with any one-pair, non-three-bet-btf hand. I don't think you can reasonably hope to be bluffed at here. And you'll too often get check-behinded by an opponent all too happy to do so.

re: before the flop: Good quick thinking and action by you IMO. Unfortunate that you didn't have better cards, but I still like the raise with the right opponents in the right places.

Tommy

[mike l.]

what's most amazing to me about this post is that everyone seemed to assume button held at least a pair of Aces. i think given button only cold called preflop he could easily have a smaller pair, particularly middle pair, that he was willing to bet the turn with and now wont bet the river, and may not even call a river bet with.

[Mike Gallo]

[ QUOTE ]
Doesnt it just hurt to have to spell that out for people...LOL

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps, the posters who asked why Dynasty checked the river, would like him to answer why he chose to attempt a check raise.

Doesnt it hurt to have spell out a question so obvious?

~MG~

[hillbilly]

tommy, haven't you ever played an opponent where you strongly suspected he was betting the nut flush draw? and you were on the hind tit with the next best flush draw? how much action did you give him?

what i can't understand is why the button checked behind with the nuts....

[Michael J. Sykes]

Pardon my late arrival to the party, but I was interested in elysium's response to this post. Does anyone agree with his argument for three-betting the flop? If so, can you help me understand it? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

-MJS

[Dynasty]

With two opponents, 3-betting the flop is excellent because your pot equity with a flush draw and pair is very big. Heads-up against an opponent who has you beat isn't nearly as good a spot. You've only got 50/50 equity. If your opponent won't fold a hand better than a pair of 3's, it's not worthwhile. Instead, getting in a check-raise if a Queen, 3, or spade hits on the turn is better.

[Michael J. Sykes]

Sounds like you do not agree with elysium's argument for three-betting heads-up. With a third opponent (presumably one of the blinds), I think it would be a close decision. You would find yourself in the middle between two opponents who have shown strength (the LP flop raiser and the EP cold-caller) with no certain outs.

-MJS

[ACBob]

Dynasty,

Your intent was to checkraise right?

If the player is indded tight I would be concerned getting checked behind. Even a checkraise may not get paid off.

I prefer lead betting hoping a big A or two pair pay off.

Bob Lewis