Set of Aces, River puts 5 diamonds on board

[Miah]

I encountered this same situation (a few more players, but almost exactly the same cards, only in hearts) last week and since it came up again I figured I would share and gain some input. I know I'm making a risky fold here where I have to be correct nearly 100% of the time, so with that said I probably erred on the river both times in not calling since the pot is very large. At least in the former I found out my fold was correct (opponent showed his T /images/graemlins/heart.gif)

Enough babbling, here's the hand:

Online 3-6 (not party, not dealing with maniacs)

A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif in the big blind

EP limper, cutoff makes it $6, I raise to $9, both call.

Flop:

A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

I bet, both call.

Turn: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Crap!, I check, (bet here?) EP bets, both call. I'm looking for the board to pair, obviously.

River: 4d

I check, EP checks, cutoff bets, we both fold. 9/1 odds good enough for a call here?

[Bob T.]

If it will make you sleep better, you are calculating the odds incorrectly here. You are only playing for a chop, so instead of 9 to 1, you are actually looking at 9 to 2 odds.

I think you are probably safe in folding the river against most opponents who bet the turn here.

[Miah]

Spot on with the odds, I completely missed that.

[Louie Landale]

With all those high cards AND the opponents have raised there is far too much chance nobody has a Diamond since there is such a high chance they have pairs or two-pairs. This is quite a bit different than if you had raised, got two calls, and the board was small diamonds. You should bet the turn. You should also (having checked the turn) pay this one off, unless you are sure about your player.

Lets pretend you didn't check-call the turn. Getting 4.5:1 to call. A raise is almost certainly better if he'll certainly fold no diamond, since you are still getting 9:2 of 4.5:1, AND for free get EP to fold and button MAY fold a reasonable diamond.

The button has to have the Qd and slow-played the turn, or has the Td and is value-betting 2nd nuts. That doesn't compare favorably to all the other hands he can reasonably have.

Too much doubt on this one. Show it down.

- Louie

[Cigwin]

Would you answer a couple of questions for a beginner?

Wouldn't the player that bet on the river have raised on the turn when he hit the flush?

Although the pot odds are 9-2, what are the odds he has a diamond? Wouldn't that be 6-1 against?

I guess I have a tough time believing he has the flush. He was the last bettor. Perhaps he felt that since the others didn't bet he could and even if one folded he'd be ahead.

[Louie Landale]

Lets pretend you didn't check-call the turn. Getting 4.5:1 to call. A raise is almost certainly better if he'll certainly fold no diamond, since you are still getting 9:2 of 4.5:1, AND for free get EP to fold and button MAY fold a reasonable diamond.

Anyway ... With all those high cards AND the opponents have raised there is far too much chance nobody has a Diamond since there is such a high chance they have pairs or two-pairs. This is quite a bit different than if you had raised, got two calls, and the board was small diamonds. Then there are lots of diamonds the opponents can reasonably have. You should bet the turn.

Too much doubt on this one. Show it down unless you are sure about your player.

- Louie

[DrSavage]

I don't think I like your question in a first place. I think the choice here is bet and fold to a raise or check and fold. Check and call seems like a worst choice.
If you check you should know in advance if you are calling or folding. If you decide that you are calling you're better off betting yourself since that might make a small diamond to fold.
In this exact situation i think check and fold is the best.

[GuyOnTilt]

Bet the turn here 100% of the time. Reasons being, you may get a weak or mediocre diamond to fold, and you have no real reason to believe you're behind right now.

If I was raised on the turn, I'd check-fold the river without improvement, and check-raise if I filled up. If I were just called on the turn I'd check-fold the river.