My surefire bluff?

[OffTilt]

I've always been a limit grinder, only recently have I really been getting into NL sitngos on Poker Stars. I couldn't stand Party's sit'n gos because the blinds go up too quickly, but I think the PS format is excellent.

Anyways, here's a bluff I've used successfully 15 out of 16 times in my short NL career. There is a raise preflop and I get headsup with a guy. Flop comes down with a pair say 99J, I bet into the guy, always, usually just for 1 unit. I'll sometimes win the pot right there, but he will often come over the top of me with a small raise.

My reasoning at this point is he can't have the 9, why on earth would he try to raise me out of the pot if he did. Therefore he can't call an all-in without the 9, i go back over the top all in and take it down every time.

The 1 time it didn't work, he called and had the 3 of a kind, at that point the blinds were too big for this chicanery to work, and he clearly felt value raising the 3 of a kind was the right play. I was also a shorter stack. What do you guys think, good play, or short term luck?

OffTilt

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[PlayerA]

If I had the 9 in your example, I would certainly raise enough to attempt push you out in case you are semi-bluffing with QT. With a more harmless board, I may call to trap. Or I may raise because I think that the opponent is bluffing and using your logic to think that the obvious play would not be made (raising with the lead being the obvious play).

[OffTilt]

[ QUOTE ]
Or I may raise because I think that the opponent is bluffing and using your logic to think that the obvious play would not be made (raising with the lead being the obvious play).

[/ QUOTE ]

That would be quite crafty, but ask yourself, with a more harmless flop (J99 not the best example) what do you think is the best play in general? In a tourney 50$ and below I would call to try to trap, I think that's the best play against most guys unless I know them to be crafty. Calling without the 9 is difficult in my opinion.

[Schmed]

I try to get away from being too tricky with that kind of flop if it hits me. Say I have 98s and I get that flop. The last thing I want is the guy with the qq, or jj, heck any pocket catching when I don't so I want to let them know they are going to pay to call and catch. I never show but if it gets to show down it's good for people to see that you came out strong when you had it. The next time you get the same board and you're sitting there with the AJ they will not want to call you down with their pocket pairs that would have got you or their flush/str8 draws.

I fold hands often even when I know the guy is bluffing. If I'm not too much in to the hand and I'm only a slight favorite I am out of there to big bets. It has saved me lots of times in those sit and gos. I save the trapping for big hands, str8's flushes, boats, somtimes trips, sometimes top two, but with a board like the one you described I would need the boat before I started getting too tricky

[slogger]

Take a more substantial stab at the pot on the paired flop (works particularly well out of the blinds when rags pair) - where minimum bet is 50 and pot is 125, bet the pot. Very hard for any player without a set to come over the top here.

You might get calls from players with overpairs or the paired kicker, but rarely will they put you to the test by raising. When somebody does come over the top, now, it's almost always an easy fold. When you're called, you know you're behind (assuming you aren't the one with the overpair or the paired kicker) or facing a big draw, w/ outs, and you can play accordingly (READ: cautiously) from there on out.

Sure, you're risking more chips, but where you lead the betting, unless your opponent's reading you for a desperation move (you're extremely shortstacked and facing a player with chips to burn), he almost can't call or raise w/o the set.

I see some weaknesses with this play (what to do when he calls and a complete brick hits on the turn - fire another round?), but at least you are not committed to putting it all in on a bluff every time you see a paired flop heads up.