Can I bet the river?

[phuc]

B&M 20/40 game - 10 handed. I post in the cutoff and get Q7 /images/graemlins/club.gif. It is folded to me so I raise, maybe not the best play, but it looks like the button is folding anyway. I had been playing tight all day and I figure this is a good chance to vary my play. Tight slightly tricky player in the small blind calls. Loose agressive player in big blind calls. Three-handed.

Flop is J /images/graemlins/club.gif 10 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

It's checked to me and I bet. Tricky player raises. I know he's put me on a steal and is willing to raise with anything here. I figure my best play is to call his raise and raise the turn when he bets out if I get any semi-bluff opportunities. I'm almost sure of this read. Big blind folds. Two players left.

Turn is 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif

This gives me a gutshot straight draw and a flush draw. Tricky player bets, I raise. I hope for him to have small pair he will fold, since he might put me on an overpair or a strong hand. He calls. I now put him on a small pair such as with a draw such as 9To or something.

River is 10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

He checks. I have Q high and the pot is fairly large so I'm assuming he will call with almost anything. Do I bet or check here? I checked. He flips over K9o and tells me he missed. I frown and sadly have to say, "Your king high is good."

I know the preflop raise may have been a mistake, but is there anything I could have done differently in this hand? I know my read was right on the flop, but could I even bet the river?

[bruce]

With an Ace high you can check the river, but with Queen high you have to bet the river, otherwise you have 0% chance of winning. Bet the river and hope your player is on a busted straight draw. I am too lazy to add up the pot but you don't have to be right too often for this play to be correct and secondly if you are caught it's good for your image.

Bruce

[ML4L]

Hey phuc,

Before the other day, I would have probably checked as you did, thinking that there is no hand with which he could call the turn and fold the river. But, a post by vehn the other day has made me start to think that many people will fold to the river bet more often than they should. There are nine big bets in the pot already, so he only has to fold occasionally for a bet to be correct. So, I think that I'm going to start betting in these situations more often and see how it works out...

ML4L

[phuc]

Yeah, after reflecting on it for a moment, I have to bet the river. Pot odds are now 1 to 9. There is no way I can check with Q high.

Any other comments are very much appreciated.

[bruce]

If you bet the river your opponent is most definetely going to fold more than 12% of the time so a bet is mandatory. Pshycologically missing a bet and losing the pot as a result is devastating and can be difficult to overcome.

Bruce

[elysium]

hi phu
i would have played it a lot like you did on the turn, but in retrospect, this post has caused me to shift from semi-bluffing a tricky opponent on the turn when such an opportunity presents itself; even if it is a steal raise situation.

the reason is that firstly, although getting the fold is not a major factor in a semi-bluff on the turn against a steal raiser, it should be when that steal raiser is tricky. these trickys can actually use their call of the semi-bluff raise to their advantage on the river being fully capable of a bluff check-raise with nothing, or a bluff bet.

the semi-bluff raise on the turn should give you an advantage on the river, and it usually does, but not against the tricky.

i used to think that betting strongly or semi-bluff raising the tricky opponents made them more predictable, but now i strongly favor simply calling or check-calling. these trickies....the more weight you throw at them, the more tricky they become, especially after calling a raise. their call of your raise, their call only mind you, is horrifying. that's what a good tricky can do. and think about it. if he had 3 bet your semi-bluff on the turn, and then bet out on the river, you'd strongly consider raising. their 3 bet isn't as strong as their call.

i don't think that you can semi-bluff raise the tricky, even in a steal-raise situation. the best course of action against them is to tend to check and call unless you have a made powerful holding.

whether to bet the river or not should be addressed on the turn. i've got to believe that prior to your turn semi-bluff, you had to have considered river action, even if just casually, and what to do if he calls on the turn and you don't improve. prior to your raise, you should quickly realize that if he calls, he will also call any river bet, and more likey than usual, he will raise your river bet. but if you only call on the turn, you can raise the river if he bets, provided your image is solid. as for betting if he checks, it wouldn't matter if you called the turn or raised the turn. if he survives to the river and checks, that only means he will call any bet. he doesn't think his K high is good, but 'who knows?' he figures. here, you're dealing with that other side of a tricky that tells him everyone else is as tricky as he himself is. that's why trickys call a lot. your river bluff will be called or raised above the 9 to 1 pot odds. you'd need like 15 to 1 and he'd need to be on his mildly tricky side. that river check by him tells you that you can't win. that's why i don't like the turn semi bluff. it opens the door to not a bet by him on the river, but rather an expert and horrifying check. this player, by the way, is very good. you saved money. it was impossible to win unless you were prepared to 3 bet his river check-raise, and i'm sure you wouldn't. his only other move would have been to call. you could not possibly win.

[phuc]

Thanks a lot elysium. You are one of the posters here that I really respect and I read most every post you write if I am browsing that topic. I can see what you are saying about check-calling, but if I check-called the turn on my hand, do I bet the river if he checks? What do I do if he bets? I just don't like being put on defense in this situation, but it may be the best option.