O/8 - How far to take two pair?

[otctrader]

Two questions actually (and I'm aware the answer is "they depend", but let's assume this is just a basic guideline for a new-average player). Limit O/8 by the way:

1) Assume I'm big blind, have KT56 rainbow, flop is KT9. Let's assume no flush draws show up, though QJ could be lurking out there. Again as a generalization for a new player, how far would one take the two pair hoping to fill up - to the turn, to the river? My instict has been to just check/fold on the flop fearing an existing straight or set... does it pay however to call any bets (or raises) in this situation?

2) My biggest problem in this game is having no clue when to raise early. Of course I'll raise on the turn or river with the nuts, but by then it's often too late. Any basic guidelines you can offer? Case example: I have position (on the button), get dealt A269, A2 are suited. Bunch of limpers; would you raise this pre-flop? Would double suited make a difference (of course playing 6-9 in a flush draw is far from the nuts)?

Again - just looking for generalizations here; I'm sure pot odds and many other factors are at work.

Thanks

[crockpot]

1) it's very likely a king or ten will win for you. that gives you four outs, so you should be looking for about 10:1 odds to call a flop bet. unfortunately, you're rarely going to be getting those odds with a hand like KT65 since you should never be calling a preflop raise with it (even in big blind). change your hand to AKT2 and say there was a raise preflop, and you're getting almost 10:1. then you can call a single flop bet, and be done with it on the turn if you miss.

note that no low can come on board (a very important consideration) so you will win the whole pot if you catch a lucky card.

2) you rarely want to raise in a loose limit o/8 game without good scoop potential or an excellent one-way hand, unless there are a lot of players in. if you can anticipate a six-way or greater pot, A269 with a suited ace is an okay hand to raise with, as you are getting good odds on making a nut low. however, your scoop potential besides the flush outs is virtually nonexistant. in a loose game, i would probably raise on the button with any A2xy if one of the xy is a 5, 4, 3 or A, or if the xy is a pair 9s or higher, especially if i also had a suited ace.

being suited to any card lower than a king should not make any difference in your preflop hand selection in a loose game, and even king-high draws should be given little credit.

hope this helps.

[Roy Munson]

Depending on the number of callers and your position, sometimes it is not correct to raise with the nuts even on the turn and river.

[Buzz]

OTC Trader - When the big blind poster bets a rainbow flop of KT9, I suspect the poster either (1) has the straight, (2) has the top set, (3) is betting top two pair, or (4) is trying to steal the pot, perhaps with nothing. I regularly see opponents bet flops like this (all high cards, no pairs) from the big blind with all of these types of hands.

I don’t know what my opponents think, but I suppose any of them who are reasonably competent probably have observed the same thing and probably would put the bettor on these four types of hands. Which of these hands the bettor actually holds is uncertain, at least initially. There are always all of these possibilities. However, some players seems more inclined than others to bet some of these hands and you may be able to have some sort of idea about the relative chances of each possibility if you know the individual tendencies of the bettor. But it’s always at least somewhat uncertain.

When there is already a straight on the board, but no pair, anyone betting the top set or top two pair is making a semi-bluff. Everyone at the table probably sees that a straight is possible. However, Texas hold ‘em players who have somehow wandered into the game may think the straight very, very unlikely. At the opposite end of the spectrum are overly cautious neophyte Omaha-8 players who believe that if a straight is possible, then someone has it. Actually the truth is somewhere in the middle.

There’s no way to know for certain exactly what the odds are that someone has the necessary JQXX, because different players use different criteria for starting hand selection. What I mean is although, of course, everyone is going to play hands like AKQJ, KKQJ or KQJT, some players will pay at least one bet to see the flop with hands like 88JQ, for example, while others won’t. And to further complicate matters, some players will pay to see the flop with 88JQ from late position but not from early or middle position. Most players will see the flop with A2QJ or A3QJs, many will see the flop with AQJXs, and some players regularly play dogs like 2JQK while others don’t.

Considering the above, there is no way to tell for certain what the chances are of somebody playing a hand with QJ. However, I figure that someone is dealt QJXX roughly two deals out of every five at a full table. In other words, out of every forty five hands dealt, roughly two of them have QJXX. But is someone playing QJXX after a flop of KT9? Hard to tell.

If I was in the unraised big blind, holding 56TK, and the flop was KT9, I might bet it. The options for me would be either to bet the hand or check and fold. I might do either.

Suppose that I did decide to bet the flop. In my case, I get too much respect. Getting the respect enables me to steal once in a while, and to pull off a semi-bluff - or even an out-right bluff once in a while, but it has a down-side in that some loose players play more tightly when I am in the hand. And some jerk might mumble something like, “He’s got QJ.” It’s kind of irritating when an opponent, often someone who is not even actively involved in the hand, correctly enumerates your hand to the rest of the table - but in this case, it would enhance my semi-bluff. Thus I very well might be able to steal the pot with top two pair. In fact, if I didn’t think this a possibility, I probably would quietly check and fold my top two pair to a bet - but usually it would be a possibility.

Therefore, let’s suppose that I bet the flop and got a couple of callers. Some opponents do strange things - like betting when they have nothing and playing it sly when they have the nuts. Thus I would figure it as a possibility, depending on who was doing the calling, that one (or both) of the callers held QJXX. But sometimes opponents are very weak. A very weak opponent, especially someone with a Texas hold ‘em mind set, might be calling with anything - KQ9X, T988, or worse. Thus if I got a couple of callers, depending on who they were, I might expect anything. I could have the best hand here - or I could be a big dog. If anyone called my second round bet, assuming I missed improving on the turn, I’d want to back away on the third betting round. And against certain opponents I could back away, check on the third betting round - and expect these opponents to check also. However, usually if I checked on the 3rd betting round, I’d expect an opponent to bet. In fact, betting after I checked would be an automatic betting situation for most opponents - and then, of course, I couldn’t tell if they had the straight (or a set) or not. At that point whether to call or not would be a judgment call. Sometimes I would pay off while other times (and generally) I wouldn’t.

I wrote above that I’d want to back away, assuming I missed improving on the turn - and sometimes I would. But other times I would bet, even though I might be betting into a made straight. What to do here would be a judgment call. If I got raised at any point when I bet, what to do would be another judgment call. I probably would tend to fold, but I might do something else.

I realize the above is vague. but except for being 100% to not check and then call on the 2nd betting round, there isn’t any 100% “do this or do that” for this particular situation (1. first getting position 2. with flopped top two pair 3. with no low possible 4. but a straight already possible if an opponent is holding QJXX).

Sometimes I’d bet on the second betting round while other times I would check and fold. Sometimes I’d bet on the third betting round and sometimes I wouldn’t. Sometimes I’d chase on the third betting round and sometimes (mostly) I wouldn’t.

When you play top two pair with a straight already possible, there simply is no way around knowing your opponents, putting them on cards, and betting accordingly. Assuming one of your opponents always has the nuts when you don’t is an incorrect assumption, while betting when you don’t have the nuts and are essentially in a drawing situation, can be foolish. Takes some judgement.

As a beginner, you won't go far wrong if you bet top two pair from the blind on the second betting round and then back away from the hand (fold) if anyone raises. Then on the third betting round, bet if you make your full house and also bet if you don't - but back away (fold) if anyone raises. On the fourth betting round, bet if you have made your full house - but check and call if you haven't.

Either play the way outlined in the paragraph above or check and fold on the second betting round. As you get to know your opponents you can play a bit differently, exercising more judgment.

***

Regarding your 2nd question, I don’t raise much before the flop except when (1) I am playing in a tournament, (2) the table is tight, and I expect by raising to (3a) steal the blinds, (3b) get one-on-one with one of the blinds, or (3c) knock out certain possible types of hands with the raise. In other words, raising before the flop is mostly a matter of intimidation of opponents. Sometimes in the early and middle stages of a tournament you just have to weather the storm - simply out-wait the maniacs - and avoid getting involved with someone who wants to play “chicken” before the flop.

At least in my experience, pre-flop raising simply doesn’t usually work well in a loose limit-Omaha-8 ring game. That’s not to say that I never raise before the flop in such a game, but I don’t raise much, even though I’m usually playing very decent starting cards. However, when some fool raises behind me, I’ll often re-raise.

Facing opponents who regularly raise before the flop is a way of life in Los Angeles area ring games. Raising changes the implied pot odds for later betting rounds - and thus changes the way I’ll play a particular combination of cards. I don’t know if my opponents who raise before the flop are thinking in terms of changing these odds or not. I suspect most of them just want to intimidate their opposition.

Some very fine Omaha-8 players seem sold on pre-flop raising - but they don't usually raise with predictable neophyte pre-flop raising hands like A2XX or AAXX, although sometimes they do. These expert opponents seem to have their own idiosyncrasies in terms of the types of hands with which they raise before the flop. Takes a while to get them straight. Maybe some of their opponents never do get it straight, and that’s how these excellent, winning players make pre-flop raising work for them. Opponents who play too many hands and who usually enter the fray with a raise are welcome because of the action they provide.

I don't think you'll go far wrong if you never raise before the flop.

That’s just my opinion.

Buzz

[crockpot]

oops, i missed the fact that you weren't already facing a bet in situation 1.

your play here depends largely on the number of opponents in the pot. with three or fewer, i would definitely bet hoping to win it right there, although if a low card pops up on the turn you can bet again. with more opponents, i would be more inclined to check. if you're raised, you should probably fold, as the opponent may have a set which negates your outs, and if there are callers, making your pot odds better, you probably have fewer than four winning cards left in the deck.

[chaos]

If there are already at least two callers, I'll rarely raise. If I do I need a premium hand and my raise will be to either build the pot or win the button (drive out the one or two players behind me.) A premium hand is one that is likely to take down the whole pot. This can either be four high cards or a two-way hand that will ususally contain A2 suited with one or two more wheel cards or AA2 with a wheel card.

Having counterfeit protection is important. You do not want to build a big pot only to have to fold on the river if an Ace or a 2 comes off the deck.

On the flop I may raise with a two way hand that has the nut low draw and a weak high. Say I have A24Q and the flop is 68Q rainbow. I may raise to try and narrow the field. The less players in the pot the better my chance of winning high. This will depend on my opponents and my position. If many of them have already called a bet they are not going to fold.

[Buzz]

I made a mistake in my previous post.

In a nine handed game, when you have neither card of a particular 2 card combination needed for a straight or low, I think the odds are approximately 2 to 1 that one of your eight opponents was dealt that particular two card combination.

To come up with this result, I used a tedious, rigorous procedure, that took 13 pages of reasoning, calculating, counting, and tabulating - with lots of places to go wrong. I’ve checked over my work, but there’s never a guarantee my math or reasoning is correct.

The final calculation was: 48871580999/24134628046 = 2.02/1.

That changes my thinking a bit.

I wrote,
“ Considering the above, there is no way to tell for certain what the chances are of somebody playing a hand with QJ. However, I figure that someone is dealt QJXX roughly two deals out of every five at a full table. In other words, out of every forty five hands dealt, roughly two of them have QJXX. But is someone playing QJXX after a flop of KT9? Hard to tell.”

Following is a correction of the erroneous paragraph.

<font color="blue">Considering the above, there is no way to tell for certain what the chances are of somebody playing a hand with QJ. However, I figure that at least one of your opponents will have been dealt QJXX roughly twice as often as not at a full (nine player) table. But is someone playing QJXX after a flop of KT9, or was the hand with QJXX folded before the flop? You need to have your feelers out trying to get a sense of whether someone behind you has flopped the straight or not. It helps to know the kinds of cards your individual opponents play.</font>

But in any event, I feel it’s poor poker to check your top two pair from early position and then call a bet by an opponent. The reason is you simply won’t generally have enough outs to have favorable odds to play top two pair as a drawing hand. I write “generally” because it’s possible - if there was a pre-flop raise - seen by enough opponents - and if low is not possible - that there will be enough in the pot to justify checking and then calling a bet.

If you think maybe nobody behind you is playing a hand with the necessary two straight cards, then bet (semi-bluff) your top two pair. If you sense that somebody behind you has flopped a straight, then check, planning to fold to a bet.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[Phat Mack]

1) Here's a sim I ran on Poker Calculator against eight opponents playing random hands. The two pair won/tied ~3%; inproved to a full house and won/tied ~16%. Doesn't look all that good.

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Monte carlo simulation results from Poker Calculator 1.1.4.1
Omaha Hold'em hi/lo 8/b, 100000 combinations tested.

Hand 1:
KsTh6c5d

Hand 2:
Random hand

Hand 3:
Random hand

Hand 4:
Random hand

Hand 5:
Random hand

Hand 6:
Random hand

Hand 7:
Random hand

Hand 8:
Random hand

Hand 9:
Random hand

Board: KhTd9c x x

Hand | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
High | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Draw | 2529 | 4634 | 4721 | 4743 | 4738 | 4595 | 4644 | 4630 | 4597 |
Lose | 80754| 87226| 87006| 87328| 87042| 87255| 87273| 87287| 87499|
Scoop | 16717| 8140 | 8273 | 7929 | 8220 | 8150 | 8083 | 8083 | 7904 |
Low | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+
Win% |17.94%|10.28%|10.46%|10.13%|10.42%|10.29%|10.23%| 10.22%|10.03%|
------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+------+


Hand no.1:
Two Pair win: 2356 draw: 665 lose: 75760
Three of a Kind win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 330
Straight win: 16 draw: 206 lose: 3036
Full House win: 14118 draw: 1658 lose: 1628
Quads win: 227 draw: 0 lose: 0


Hand no.2:
High Card win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 4259
Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 30834
Two Pair win: 165 draw: 128 lose: 30700
Three of a Kind win: 475 draw: 27 lose: 5726
Straight win: 4385 draw: 4212 lose: 12482
Flush win: 1443 draw: 0 lose: 1593
Full House win: 1477 draw: 267 lose: 1632
Quads win: 157 draw: 0 lose: 0
Straight Flush win: 38 draw: 0 lose: 0


Hand no.3:
High Card win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 4420
Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 30481
Two Pair win: 148 draw: 99 lose: 30592
Three of a Kind win: 542 draw: 22 lose: 5725
Straight win: 4499 draw: 4316 lose: 12380
Flush win: 1423 draw: 0 lose: 1769
Full House win: 1490 draw: 284 lose: 1638
Quads win: 145 draw: 0 lose: 1
Straight Flush win: 26 draw: 0 lose: 0


Hand no.4:
High Card win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 4278
Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 30694
Two Pair win: 166 draw: 102 lose: 30956
Three of a Kind win: 504 draw: 21 lose: 5726
Straight win: 4321 draw: 4326 lose: 12423
Flush win: 1419 draw: 0 lose: 1667
Full House win: 1362 draw: 294 lose: 1584
Quads win: 135 draw: 0 lose: 0
Straight Flush win: 22 draw: 0 lose: 0


Hand no.5:
High Card win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 4239
Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 30728
Two Pair win: 142 draw: 115 lose: 30790
Three of a Kind win: 526 draw: 16 lose: 5600
Straight win: 4444 draw: 4333 lose: 12533
Flush win: 1465 draw: 0 lose: 1685
Full House win: 1459 draw: 274 lose: 1467
Quads win: 153 draw: 0 lose: 0
Straight Flush win: 31 draw: 0 lose: 0


Hand no.6:
High Card win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 4305
Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 30979
Two Pair win: 148 draw: 117 lose: 30528
Three of a Kind win: 528 draw: 19 lose: 5633
Straight win: 4465 draw: 4185 lose: 12564
Flush win: 1388 draw: 0 lose: 1623
Full House win: 1445 draw: 274 lose: 1622
Quads win: 144 draw: 0 lose: 1
Straight Flush win: 32 draw: 0 lose: 0


Hand no.7:
High Card win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 4343
Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 30666
Two Pair win: 138 draw: 106 lose: 30951
Three of a Kind win: 485 draw: 19 lose: 5566
Straight win: 4410 draw: 4242 lose: 12471
Flush win: 1431 draw: 0 lose: 1729
Full House win: 1448 draw: 277 lose: 1546
Quads win: 141 draw: 0 lose: 1
Straight Flush win: 30 draw: 0 lose: 0


Hand no.8:
High Card win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 4248
Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 30502
Two Pair win: 157 draw: 96 lose: 30729
Three of a Kind win: 509 draw: 17 lose: 5712
Straight win: 4368 draw: 4248 lose: 12774
Flush win: 1460 draw: 0 lose: 1766
Full House win: 1429 draw: 269 lose: 1556
Quads win: 134 draw: 0 lose: 0
Straight Flush win: 26 draw: 0 lose: 0


Hand no.9:
High Card win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 4322
Pair win: 0 draw: 0 lose: 30750
Two Pair win: 154 draw: 106 lose: 30673
Three of a Kind win: 545 draw: 17 lose: 5701
Straight win: 4230 draw: 4205 lose: 12802
Flush win: 1440 draw: 0 lose: 1720
Full House win: 1364 draw: 269 lose: 1531
Quads win: 142 draw: 0 lose: 0
Straight Flush win: 29 draw: 0 lose: 0
</pre><hr />

[Buzz]

“Here's a sim I ran on Poker Calculator against eight opponents playing random hands. The two pair won/tied ~3%; improved to a full house and won/tied ~16%. Doesn't look all that good.”

Mac - Yet the hand with the flopped top two pair averaged about 7.7% better than any of the eight random hands, despite the possible flopped straight (QJXX) by any of the random opponents. Interesting. Thanks for the sim.

In my humble opinion, flopped two pair is a horrid hand in a loose game of no fold ‘em Omaha-8. You have to improve to a full house, and then it has to be a decent full house. The “decent” stipulation means you don’t want to make a full house after flopping two pair unless you flopped top two pair. For example, when I hold Ah3h7cKc and the flop is 3s7cJd, my hand is dead because my low is counterfeited and because even if the board pairs with a seven, an opponent with 7JXX or JJXX would have a better full house. Similarly, if the board pairs with a three, an opponent with 3JXX, 77XX or JJXX would have a better full house. Thus I’m almost definitely not going to be playing bottom two pair, and I’m only rarely going to be playing top and bottom two pair.

However, having written that flopped two pair is a horrid hand in a loose game of no fold ‘em Omaha-8, I often find myself in a game that either is initially tight or that tightens up when I enter the action. And in these situations, flopped top two pair is often a powerful holding.

Hands that might end up beating flopped top two pair wouldn’t fold in Monte Carlo type simulations. However, they might fold either before the flop or even after the flop in a tight game.

Tight ring games are admittedly rare at low limits, at least in the Los Angeles area. However, tight tournament situations are very common, especially when nearing or at the final table.

When (a) only two or three of us see the flop, (b) I have something like Ah3h8cQc, and (c) the flop is As7cQd, I like my holding (flopped top two pair), even though my low has been counterfeited. Although when you hold Ah3h8cQc and the flop is As7cQd, a straight or flush is a more likely nut hand than a full house on the river, top two pair might stand up at the showdown for at least three reasons.

(1) Someone who might have made a straight or flush may not have seen the flop in the first place.

(2) A solid opponent with only four outs to a straight will probably fold to a bet on the second betting round. For example, someone holding something like Ac2dJhKs after a flop of As7cQd might tend to fold to a bet by a reasonably solid opponent (me). Note that after a flop of As7cQd, someone holding Ah3h8cQc is way ahead of someone holding a four out straight draw hand like Ac2dJhKs - more than a two to one favorite.

(3) Even a solid, tight opponent with more than four outs to a straight but no chance at low (eg. holding KsQsJdTd after a flop of As7cQd) may fold to a bet on the second betting round.

At any rate, when people are playing tightly it often happens that they fold hands which might have ended up as winners. Accordingly, when I hold Ah3h8cQc and the flop is As7cQd in a tight game, I bet to protect my top two pair.
One should use common sense here. For example, if a number of opponents have seen a flop of AsTcQs, Ah3h8cQc doesn’t look very good and probably should fold to a bet, IMHO. Depends, of course, but in general you have to put the bettor either on KJXX or a bluff, with KJXX usually being the more likely possibility, especially if a number of opponents have seen the flop.

I don't know pot limit Omaha-8, but I would imagine the need to protect flopped top two pair also often arises in a pot limit Omaha-8 game. I would imagine you can’t afford to give an opponent a free card when you hold something like Ah3h8cQc and the flop is something like As7cQd. I would imagine you should bet the pot with your flopped top two pair here to drive out an opponent who might back into a straight or a flush.

Of course, by betting flopped top two pair, you can’t protect yourself against all eventualities - but by betting you often will convert your flopped top two pair from a loser into a winner. However, you can only do this in a tight game. I wouldn't advise betting top two pair in a loosey goosey game where your opponents are determined to see the river. As your simulations indicate, top two pair doesn’t win (or improve) often enough to pay off in loose, no-fold-’em games.

Just my opinion. Thanks again for the sims.

Buzz

[Phat Mack]

I don't know pot limit Omaha-8, but I would imagine the need to protect flopped top two pair also often arises in a pot limit Omaha-8 game. I would imagine you can’t afford to give an opponent a free card when you hold something like Ah3h8cQc and the flop is something like As7cQd.

I don't have the heart for this play in PL. If I try to protect two pair here, I will invariably be shown AAxx or QQxx, or maybe even, on a bad day, 77xx. Even more likely, all the 23's will stay and have a free shot at me. If they have 2356, then the 4 comes right off.

I do like two pair, however, when it's part of Plan B. If I have nut low and a nut flush draw, if the flush doesn't come, it's nice to be able to show down some kind of high, and if there is a flush or straight on the board, then my low can make me brave enough to bet non-nut flushes and straights out of the pot and back in with my two pair. (If I'm seeing the table correctly /images/graemlins/smile.gif )

But two pair, by and of itself, makes me a little queasy.

[crockpot]

if you're going to protect two pair at all, you should reserve it for situations like J9xx on a J94 flop, where an overcard can easily make someone two bigger pair. if your aces and queens are good now, it is unlikely a free card will do you that much harm. and you are not getting great value on your bets when two low cards are already out. just pray that you fill up and someone hits a lower full.

[Buzz]

Crock - A couple of thoughts...

“if you're going to protect two pair at all, you should reserve it for situations like J9xx on a J94 flop, where an overcard can easily make someone two bigger pair.”

It’s unlikely that I’ll be playing J9XX as a starting hand, except from the unraised big blind. I can think of some J9XX hands I might be playing...
(for the hands listed below n means non-suited, s means single suited, d means double suited - where I’d play a non-suited hand, I’d obviously also play a suited hand and where I’d play a suited hand, I’d obviously also play a double-suited hand).
J9A2n,
J93A-suited-ace, J9AAs,
J9ATd, J9AQd, J9AKd,
J9TQd, J9TKd, J9QKd,
J9QQd, J9KKs....

That may look like a lot of hands, but the suited qualifications severely limit them. For example there are 256 possible A39J hands, but only 148 of them have a suited ace. There are actually only 1100 hands that have 9J that I’d play. That’s out of a possible 17280 hands with 9J. In other words I’m only playing one out of fifteen or sixteen J9XX hands - and most of those, 852/1100, are J9A2, J9AAs, J9KKs, or J9A3-suited-ace.

After a J94n flop, I’d probably bet any of those hands - but it wouldn’t exactly be to protect the flopped top two pair. Notice that, besides the flopped top two pair, I’d have something else working for me with any of those hands.

From the unraised big blind, holding J9XX after a flop of J94n, yes, I'd bet to protect my hand - but I wouldn't reserve protecting my flopped top two pair for something like jacks and nines.

“if your aces and queens are good now, it is unlikely a free card will do you that much harm.”

I think you’re referring to holding something like Ah3h8cQc and catching a flop of As7cQd. After a flop of As7cQd, nobody has anything yet. Except for the Broadway (AKQJT), only backdoor straights or flushes are possible. Anyone holding KJTX (9 outs) would be expected to probably pay to see the next card. But without all three of these cards - with only two of them - in other words with KJXX, KTXX, or JTXX (only 4 outs) - an opponent without a low draw might fold to a bet. You’re probably not going to knock out an opponent with the nut low draw (23XX) by betting this flop - but probably an opponent with the nut low draw has none of the hands you want to knock out (KJXX, KTXX, or JTXX).

At any rate, I’m not convinced a free card won’t harm you here. (It seems to me that a free card very well might harm you). Besides allowing KJXX, KTXX, or JTXX to possibly catch the Broadway, any non-pairing card makes two board cards to a straight and 24 cards make two board cards to a flush in spades or diamonds. In fact, of the 45 missing cards, the only cards that don’t make things better for some opponent are the 4 that make your full house.

And if you check your top two pair here, it’s almost guaranteed that an opponent will toss in a bet on the next round - and then you won’t know where you stand.

Look at it this way: If you held something like QsJhTs9h (or many other hands), wouldn’t you love to see a free card after a flop of As7cQd? Four kings would give you the Broadway while any of ten spades gives you a not unreasonable spade flush draw. Yet unless the betting had gone nutso before the flop, you almost surely wouldn’t have favorable odds to call a bet.

What it boils down to is when, on the second betting round, you have an opportunity to make a bet your opponent wisely doesn’t want you to make, then I think betting is probably the correct move.

“ and you are not getting great value on your bets when two low cards are already out.”

That’s a good point. On the other hand, sometimes by betting here you can shake opponents off non-nut low draws, thus enabling a scoop for yourself. Thus if you bet here, you enhance your chances of scooping - and that gives you fantastic value for your bet. Your opponents will certainly be playing A2XX and A3XX starting hands - often without counterfeit protection. But then when an ace hits the flop, as in As7cQd, those without adequate counterfeit protection (those without A23X) must seriously fear someone playing 23XX and might fold to a bet. Of course you’re not going to get rid of anyone playing 23XX - but by betting you might get rid of all the other low draws.

On balance, even though you’re not getting great value on your bet if the low draws stay in the hand, I favor an aggressive stance here, not only because by betting you may knock out the non-nut low draws, but also because you may knock out opponents who might make backdoor straight and flushes if given a free card.

“just pray that you fill up and someone hits a lower full.”

You always can use some luck - but I think by playing your flopped top two pair aggressively here, you at least partially obviate the need for luck.

The more I think about it, the more I like aggressively betting the flopped top two pair on the second betting round. But only if there is a chance of knocking out some or all of your opposition. If they’re all going to call, then I don’t think you generally want to play flopped top two pair to a bet.

Either pump it (if that will achieve your objective of limiting the field) or dump it (to a bet if against a collection of calling stations). Thanks again for the sims on this one, Mack. Clearly you don't want to generally be paying for a four out draw to make a full house against a bunch of calling stations - especially with two low cards on the flop.

Just my opinion.

Buzz

[crockpot]

thanks for the commentary, Buzz. I definitely would not be playing J9 outside the blind except for the situations you described, but i just meant that comment to prove a point, that not all top two pair are the same, even if both pairs are higher than an 8.

as for your analysis of the AQxx hand, i do agree with you, but the people in the loose limit omaha/8 games i seek out (even though i don't play it too much anymore) tend not to fold gutshots or second-nut low draws to a bet here anyway. also, being used to pot-limit hi-lo lately, i have an extremely low opinion of top two pair on a board like AQ5 (not to mention top and bottom pair on this flop, or top two on an A85), and constantly see people go broke by overplaying hands like these.

at any rate, i think we agree that the bottom line is that you do not want to build top two pair unless you will also have a good redraw, and when it is not likely that the board will make a low possible, unless you have it. that was what i really wanted to get across.