How to handle a failed semi-bluff

[Sarge85]

Pokerstars NL Tourney –
Blinds 100/200

Relevant stacks: Me 5800T Chips, Player1 22,350T Chips, Player 2 6,000T Chips

Player 1, is/has been pushing weight around stealing blinds.

Player 1 = SB

I’m in BB with J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

3 limpers, including Player 2 call – I check pre-flop

(pot = 1000T)

Flop: T /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Player 1 Checks –

Me – I bet out on the semi-bluff straight draw (hoping to scoop here) = 500T

Player 2 calls (He has been playing Ax when bet into, so it’s tough to say what he may have)

Pot= $2000T

Turn: 6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I bet out again 500T – (since the semi-bluff failed here should have I check-called or check folded instead?)

Player 2 calls

Pot $3,000T

River A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

I check (obviously I have trash and wise up and don't bet out)
He checks

Player 2 shows J /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif for a pair of 4s and a 3000T pot.

Question: If your semi bluff fails – where do you let go? Or do you think a semi-bluff was the wrong move here, and this just another bad example of loose play?

Sarge /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Copernicus]

I think there is a more basic issue, which is why semi-bluff on the flop in the first place? Unless you are awfully certain they will all fold, arent you better off keeping in as many as possible to keep the proper odds for your draw? I can see a small bet to try and build a pot if you hit, but save any sem-bluff considerations until the turn when the field may be thinned a little.

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
arent you better off keeping in as many as possible to keep the proper odds for your draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

I struggle with this - How to you figure this? - (Also, I think I'm much better off just picking up the pot here.)

Are you saying that since i have a 8 outer, on the flop, which (please correct me if I'm wrong) is about 2:1 that I hit, there is an ideal bet here? Since I open the betting what should I do?

Sarge /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Bozeman]

I don't think you should make your semi-bluff bets so small relative to the pot, particularly the turn one.

Craig

[allenciox]

If you are going to semi-bluff here, it needs to be a bigger bet, at least pot size. Actually, I like another play better. Check, and if somebody else bets, raise all-in. The best situation on the flop with a draw (here you have both an overcard and you are drawing to the open nut straight) is to be all-in, but you really need a bigger pot to do that (which a bet by somebody else would do that). In this situation, the others would probably read your raise all-in as two pair or a set (probably not an overpair or you would have raised pre-flop), and fold unless they can beat that. At this stage of the tourney you have to take chances. If someone DOES call you, you have 9 outs for your straight, and 3 outs for your J to beat them if they are simply top pair. (again, they are probably not an overpair).

If nobody bets on the flop, you get a free card to try to complete your straight. This is good with three people, as they are not likely to read a Q or 7 as a card to fear.

[Rushmore]

If you're going to semi-bluff, you simply MUST commit more than 25% of the pot to it. Your bet on the turn ought to be pot-sized.

When you miss, and the ace comes on the end, you have to figure the likelihood of 2 things:

1.) What are the chances this guy has an ace? (Minimal, it looks like), and
2.) If he does not have an ace, what are the chances he'll call a big bet on the river?

I check (obviously I have trash and wise up and don't bet out)

This is an opportunity to pick up the pot. You can't just let out a sigh and say, "damn, my semi-bluff didn't work, let's move on to the next hand." He has to consider the possibility you have a big hand. Say he's got, uh, 9/T (with which he probably would have made a play for the pot with already, but let's look at it anyway). Will he call a big river bet with this hand?

I dunno. That's for you to figure out. What I DO know is that he hasn't been put to any tests throughout the play of the hand, so we cannot see if he is committed to his hand.

I know, you mentioned you were concerned about A/x. Concerned and legitimately suspecting are totally different things. Anyone might hold that hand here. But does that mean you shouldn't make a play for the pot on the end?

Again, I dunno. But I can tell you that your "I wise up" statement is way off base. There's a lot to consider here. Namely, all the chips in the middle (T3000, which would have been pretty big for you at this point, right?).

[jon_1van]

I think you should have bet more on the flop. 800-1000 range.

Because your bet is small and your stack is large(relative to the bet) it would be hard to fold any type of draw to that bet because implied odds are pretty good for your opponent.

You also might be getting called because 1/2 pot after it gets checked to you looks like a half-hearted attempt to buy the pot. Why not make a whole hearted attempt?

Jon

P.S. You don't specify the buyin. I know that very few people in the low buying games fold for less than a pot bet if the hit the flop (even barely).

[Sarge85]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're going to semi-bluff, you simply MUST commit more than 25% of the pot to it. Your bet on the turn ought to be pot-sized.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like diminishing returns here. What I'm hearing is that I didn't bet enough on the flop to adequately semi-bluff the hand. OK, that's fine - lesson learned. However, if I make my pot size bet on the flop - would have been T1000 assume he calls - then another pot size bet on the turn, I'm going to be pot committed to a hand i won't win if called.

I guess T1000 at the flop may look more intimating to call? I'm still putting in T1000 this way, as i did betting 500 on the flop and shelling out another 500 on the turn. My thought then would be not to continue with the bluff (on the turn) if called on my T1000 semi bluff bet. (Weak Tight?)

Sarge /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[fnurt]

I have no problem with attempting to buy the pot cheaply on the flop, although I'd like it better with 3 players than 4. If you checked, someone else would probably try to buy the pot anyway, so you might as well give yourself the chance to pick it up.

On the turn, out of position, I would just check. If he bets you have an easy decision based upon the size of his bet and the pot odds. If he checks behind then you see the river card for free.

The scary ace on the river is a good opportunity to take another stab at the pot. Force him to make the tough call with a pair of 4's.

[Shaun]

On this flop, you cannot afford to bet out in my opinion unless you are going to push in. You know this guy is throwing his weight around and you have 5800 chips. The pot is 1000 at the start, and that in itself is enough to motivate you to try and win it with this draw. If you only bet half the pot at a time, you limit yourself. You probably can't win unless you hit, (you usually won't) as you have set up a pattern of smallish bets. A huge bluff bet on the river might set off alarms if he has something decent, like a 10 or an 8. A check on the river costs you big time, in my opinion. Therefore (and I am no tournament expert and perhaps this is why) I would check the flop with intent to check raise- and raise big. If the pot is 1000 and your large stacked opponent bets 600, which sounds about right for his hand and his chip position, what will he do if you check raise him the rest of your chips? He will fold unless he is nuts. He has no reason to gamble with you, even if he has top pair he may consider folding. If he does call, you still have outs maybe to the J, and to the 7 and Q. Even if you check-raise less than your whole stack (this may be best), say, to 1800 he may figure you for a big hand and fold, as your bet seems to want his call. Since he has so many chips and you are comparably short stacked, making a big move on this flop puts you in control of the hand and gives him the chance to fold the best hand. Is it a gamble? Actually, I don't really think so. I don't think he can call unless he has a monster, and if that is the case he will let you know anyway if you keep semi-bluffing half the pot. Then you will be in an even worse position- chips commited into a big pot and facing a raise with a draw.

Therefore, it's time for a thrilling check-raise all-in on the flop! Of course, if he checks behind you, you can still try a big bet on the turn, say pot sized. Then he may (correctly) assume you were going for the check-raise on the flop, and feel good about getting away from his hand cheap when he folds to your bet. I think the key is, with a big stack against you and a draw, you can't really afford to fool around. You don't want to call with it and you don't want to be in the position you were in on the river so you try and win the pot early by showing strength.

[PlayerA]

If I semi-bluff in this situation (sometimes I will, sometimes I won't), I will usually bet at least the pot. Your smallish bet says "I have a draw, middle or low pair, top pair with weak kicker, or a monster to induce a raise" (small bet with top set is a mistake here in my opinion (str8 and flush draws possible)). Mr. J4, can figure "he might be semibluffing, if not, I have a 5 outer".

However, there is another way to play the 500 bet on flop. When the 6 hit, you bet big to attempt to represent 79. Now, your saying "ok my 500 bet was a semibluff and now I've hit". You want to win it here. In fact, you could attempt this play if any club hits and you don't think he has the flush.

I don't think I'd bet the river if I haven't bought it by then.

[PlayerA]

On second thought, if I bluffed because a flush card hit on the turn and was not re-raised on turn (in which case I'd fold right there - no more point in drawing for your str8 unless you read the raise as a bluff), then I would bet the river if I thought the caller might make a bad call with a single club on the turn (since he's playing J4s, he might fit the bill).

[David Ottosen]

I think if you are going to semi-bluff, you have to bet more on the turn or give up there.