Destined to Lose??

[Toro]

I have this type of hand that comes up in similar situations in tourneys that's got me stumped. I'm thinking that maybe I'm just destined to lose all my chips when this situation occurs but maybe some of you 2+2 tourney experts might have a solution.

This particular one was last night at FW. I was playing in an ACT II one table satellite which is a $125 buy-in affair which if won entitles you to a seat in an ACT III Satellite which is in effect a supersatellite for the big fall tourney which will be on the Travel Channel.

We are now 3 handed and the chip position is as follows: Chip Leader(CL) = 9000T, me = 7500T, Short Stack(SS) = 3500T. Blinds are 400/800 and I'm the SB with JJ. SS, on the button folds, I raise to 2400 and CL in the BB gives me this bemused look, like he thinks I'm stealing. He kind of reluctantly calls and we see the flop. K,8,5 rainbow. Now what? I hate to check here, since if the guy flopped an 8 or a 5 or even nothing he might try to take it down with a big bet. A small feeler bet doesn't feel right either, since this could be read as weak and induce a raise bluff steal. So I bet all-in, about 5100T which is about the size of the pot.

CL calls and turns over KJ and I'm gone. Does anyone just check and fold to a big bet in this situation? It seems like a lot to give up just because there is one overcard to my pair. Or am I just destined to lose all my chips? Thanks in advance for responses.

[Bozeman]

You could raise allin preflop, since a pot sized bet is more than 1/3 of your stack.

[Toro]

I thought of that, but 3 handed, JJ is a pretty damned good hand and wouldn't you want some action with it? Of course, the old saying "be careful what you wish for".

[Copernicus]

If CL has 1/2 a brain he doesnt want to fall from chip leader to way behind on a bluff. In a cash game I would be far more worried about that than I am in a tournament. Whether he thinks you are on a steal or not, he's got to have something to call the original 2400. If you take it down even with no more betting you have moved into a solid lead, and the K just sets alarms off. I would check the flop, although I wouldnt argue against a small (not much more than minimum) "feeler bet". If he shows weakness there may still be some chips won on the turn. If he shows strength, its time to get out.

My end game strategy is to incrementally increase my stack, without trying to maximize every win, if maximizing carries big risks with it.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

You're pretty well screwed here, unless this guy is VERY dependable and readable postflop. Most of us who like NLH could easily bet here with anything if you check, and certainly I'm going to bet with middle pair, or a pocket pair higher than 5, as I don't want to give you a free card to beat me with your QT or whatever you might have. I wouldn't even be "bluffing" when I did so, as your check would usually make me think I had you beat.

However, if you bet all-in on the flop, you'll always get called by a Kx, but will sometimes, maybe frequently, get a hand that is behind you to fold. Thus, the flop bet has little chance of getting paid off, and is really only good at keeping him from drawing out on you freely or cheaply.

I would tend to check-and-call here if the opponent is aggressive, since that way I still lose when he has a K, but I also win big when he has a 5, 8, other pair, or a bluff (minus the times he sucks out on me, of course).

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Eric P]

i would probably go all-in, JJ is a very difficult hand to play and this way you will knock off the CL unless he has you beat, in which case you will probably bust here anyway, and hope the SS calls you.

[Toro]

Greg, not that you need the compliment, but I like your advice the best. Thanks to all.