10-20 hand: 97s

[M.B.E.]

After two limpers I limp with 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Two more players limp and the small blind raises. All call, and SB checks in the dark.

FLOP: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif6/images/graemlins/spade.gif

Checked to me, I bet, two callers, SB raises, BB coldcalls, I threebet, and everyone calls. Five of us are left. Now SB bets the turn in the dark. (By the way, he's kind of a weird guy I had never seen before. At this point I put him on AA.)

TURN: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif6/images/graemlins/spade.gif J/images/graemlins/club.gif

Oddly my first reaction when I saw this card was "I hope someone has pocket jacks so that if I hit a straight flush on the river with the ten of diamonds I'll win a huge pot". My second reaction was, "Actually, what I really hope is that I have 14 outs rather than 1."

Anyway BB calls SB's dark bet and I raise. The two players behind me fold and then SB folds. So I guess he didn't have aces. BB calls and we're heads up. Twenty minutes ago I had seen this guy put in multiple bets on the turn and then fold the river for one bet, so I resolve to bet the river (if checked to) no matter what.

Comments on my turn raise and proposed river play? Results later.

[elysium]

hi mbe
you're one of the better players around here. i don't understand the aggression. i may be missing something, but i'm sure that you have a reason to raise in this spot. you do have a lot of outs.

you say you have a weird. sometimes it's not such a good thing to give the weird something to raise. it's much like giving the lyrics of the national anthem to ozzie osborn and asking him to sing. you could start a riot.

i like taking the pacifist route in these ones mbe. your hand has a lot of outs, but it also is very coloquialistic. if the weird guy misinterprets his duty and reraises, king george III could prove taxing. of course if you have king george III beat, now you like the weird guy reraising. but i don't think that you have that kind of power holding here.

[skp]

I think that this hand illustrates one of the pitfalls of betting in the dark. It's easier for you to raise on the turn given that you know that sb bet in the dark. Had he made a normal bet, you may still have raised and he may still have folded but I would say that you will have a tougher time raising in that scenario (although it would be the proper play given that your flop actions are consistent with holding a Jack and given that you have lots of outs even if called).

As for your river play...well of course you must bluff. It would be crazy to give it up at that point when all indications are that the bb is also on a draw. I would bluff here against anybody and everybody. That extra info you provided about the bb's play on a previous hand is irrelevant and immaterial to your river play.

[Clarkmeister]

"Oddly my first reaction when I saw this card was "I hope someone has pocket jacks so that if I hit a straight flush on the river with the ten of diamonds I'll win a huge pot". My second reaction was, "Actually, what I really hope is that I have 14 outs rather than 1.""

That's odd. My first thought was "what a great turn card for MBE." My second thought was "gee, I hope he raises here".

[Vehn]

Meh I usually find dicking around here with the 3-bet on the flop to be pointless. But I can't really argue with it I guess. I'll say two things here though:

1) It certainly looks like the SB has pocket aces (or close enough).

2) If the river bricks and your bluff is called by the BB, proudly show your hand so you can see what color the small blind turns when the BB turns over K8s or whatever.

[Clarkmeister]

"Meh I usually find dicking around here with the 3-bet on the flop to be pointless"

How is putting as much money in as possible against 4 opponents when you likely have 50% pot equity pointless?

[Vehn]

You're way overestimating your equity here. I hate to sound like Ciaffone or something but only 1 of your outs is to the nuts. If you 3-bet the flop here the other legitimate draws are going no where, i.e. better flushes and T9, and worse hands will usually fold for 2 cold. You are basically not getting much equity for it IMO - at least around here there will simply not be that many people calling 1 or more bets on the flop here with a legitmate draw. I just think its likely you will be putting in a lot of money with a 1 or 5 out draw. It may be worth if you think you'll get checked to on the turn but that doesn't happen alot etc as this case shows.

p.s. answer my response in the "seems to be happening a lot" post. I'd like to hear your thought process on it - especially considering that some people where I play will literally go infinite bets on the flop with an 8+ out draw.

[Clarkmeister]

Holdem Hi: 741 enumerated boards containing 6s Jd 8d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ad Ah 176 23.75 565 76.25 0 0.00 0.238
9d 7d 349 47.10 377 50.88 15 2.02 0.481
Td 9h 126 17.00 600 80.97 15 2.02 0.180
Qh Jh 54 7.29 687 92.71 0 0.00 0.073
Ac 6c 21 2.83 720 97.17 0 0.00 0.028



47% pot equity looks pretty good from here.

[Paluka]

It seems pretty absurd here to just assume you have the best flush draw out there anything close to 100% of the time. And of course on the turn you could be drawing dead. I think the turn raise is a pretty poor play unless by some miracle you think it is driving out better flush draws.

[Clarkmeister]

At the poker table, do you only worry about what your hand is? Or do you maybe consider what others think you may have?

His hand should look a lot more like a set or 2 pair to the table than a flush draw. Plus the pot is huge. I think his turn raise is outstanding poker.

As for the flop, I'd assume I have either the best, or the only flush draw about 80% of the time in this situation. I even took away several outs on the flop (2 diamonds and a ten), and set up redraw opportunities against Hero if he hits on the turn.

Not getting as much in the pot on the flop with this many opponents and a draw this big gives up chunks of EV. In a game where you are trying to make a bet an hour, can you really just give up over a SB worth of expectation here?

[Paluka]

I like the flop re-raise. I think the turn raise is a losing play. This game sounds like a good game to be in- it is a 10/20 with lots of limpers and small blinds who like to raise everyone preflop then check in the dark. Semi-bluffs rarely work against players like this. You really think it is very likely that you are going to win this pot without a showdown?

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
You're way overestimating your equity here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree that Clarkmeister may be overestimating a little here. I'd discount his 47% somewhat since sometimes there will be a better flush draw out there and sometimes a better straight draw. And sometimes both. But I'll cap this if possible every single time w/ 5-way action. It's pretty hard for my flop bets to not be +EV. Here's a pretty bad scenario from twodimes:


<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
pokenum -h 7d 9d - ad ah - kd qd - 9s qs - jh kh -- 6s jd 8d
Holdem Hi: 741 enumerated boards containing 6s Jd 8d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9d 7d 116 15.65 611 82.46 14 1.89 0.166
Ad Ah 253 34.14 488 65.86 0 0.00 0.341
Kd Qd 175 23.62 566 76.38 0 0.00 0.236
Qs 9s 113 15.25 614 82.86 14 1.89 0.162
Kh Jh 70 9.45 671 90.55 0 0.00 0.094
</pre><hr />

Even in this situation, I'm only losing .17SB per flop bet. Weigh that against the times that I'm making .5SB w/ each bet that goes into the pot and it's an easy raise.

[mike l.]

"SB bets the turn in the dark. (By the way, he's kind of a weird guy I had never seen before. At this point I put him on AA.)"

"Anyway BB calls SB's dark bet and I raise. The two players behind me fold and then SB folds. So I guess he didn't have aces. BB calls and we're heads up. Twenty minutes ago I had seen this guy put in multiple bets on the turn and then fold the river for one bet"

my conclusion is tommy has cloned himself and moved to vancouver where he sits right next to his clone and plays the local 10-20. neat.

as for your scenario mbe it seems fine. will you raise the river if bb bets into you? seems like the only logical question to ask.

btw dont play 97s ever if you can help it.

[Rushmore]

Am I the only one here who sees the fact that the disparity in the two analyses is a product of Ulysses including KQd in the mix?

Anyway, the real question IMO is how often is your flush draw good?

And even so, I don't like the turn raise. It's impossible to adequately assess the likelihood of your flush draw as being best here to the degree that you can be confident in this raise.

But that's just my little opinion.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one here who sees the fact that the disparity in the two analyses is a product of Ulysses including KQd in the mix?

[/ QUOTE ]

The Q9s I included in the mix is also quite significant.

[skp]

I haven't looked at all this Two dimes data in detail but it seems to me that a turn raise has to be a good semibluff. I mean, there is enough of a chance that the bettor may lay down even AA. I mean, would you always call with AA after having been raised on a board of JJxx (albeit with a two flush) after having been 3 bet preflop by the very same turn raiser?

Toss in the fact that the sb bet the turn in the dark and I think that MBE's turn raise is now an even better play.

[skp]

Incidentally, once you got rid of the sb with the turn raise and were left with the bb as your lone opponent, you may want to miss your flush. That is, I might hope to miss the flush because the bb appears to be on a draw with the flush draw being most likely. Many times in this spot, a baby blank might be better than a flush card.

[M.B.E.]

Thanks very much for the thoughtful responses.

The 2/images/graemlins/diamond.gif hit on the river making my flush. BB checked, I bet, and he folded so I raked in the pot without showing.

Comments: on the flop it's an easy raise for the reasons given by Clarkmeister and Ulysses. My pot equity could easily be as high as 0.481 in which case my flop threebet has huge EV if everyone calls. And the EV is even better considering that someone (likely the SB) could cap.

Even if someone has a bigger flush draw, I've still got seven outs (any ten and any five except the 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif) giving me about 29% pot equity (http://twodimes.net/h/?z=72072), so I get value for my threebet since I'll have at least four callers. The worst-case scenario is the one described by Ulysses, where there's a bigger flush draw and a Q9 gutshot straight draw out there. That's unlikely.

Also, it's rare in my game to see someone call one bet on the flop and then fold if it's raised and reraised. So for these reasons not threebetting on the flop would be terrible.

When I posted the hand I wasn't sure about my raise on the turn, but after the reading all the responses I agree with Clarkmeister and skp that raising the turn was best. With such a big pot already, there's a big advantage to representing trips (likely AJ), and I can do so convincingly since I was so aggressive on the flop.

The real drawback to the turn raise is that it will get rid of someone behind me with an 8, gaining me less money if I hit on the river. The flipside, however, is that maybe it will fold out someone with Q9 or TT, giving me two or three extra outs on the river. Plus there's a slim possibility of someone folding a bigger flush draw, afraid that I flopped a set and now have a full house. These reasons cancel each other out, leaving us with the tactical argument in favour of raising (i.e. represent a jack).

All in all, raising the turn was clearly the best play in that situation.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems pretty absurd here to just assume you have the best flush draw out there anything close to 100% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

As a guess I'd say there's a 70% chance I have the best flush draw. Is that reasonable?

But even the 30% or so of the time someone has a bigger flush draw, I still have straight outs.

I'm only worried about a full house, which is pretty unlikely because J8 and J6 would have probably folded preflop, while 88 and 66 would have probably capped the flop. And even if someone has a full house I'm not drawing totally dead.

If someone has trip jacks it only reduces my outs by two (the six of diamonds and the kicker of diamonds).

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
will you raise the river if bb bets into you? seems like the only logical question to ask.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question. If a diamond comes and BB bets, obviously I'm just calling. If I hit a straight and he bets, I'll probably raise but it's debatable.

If I totally miss and my opponent bets, then he's likely to have a good hand, but I think his bet would be a bluff often enough for me to have positive EV by bluff-raising. For one thing, it should look to him like I have a jack, so what's he going to value-bet on the river that he couldn't threebet on the turn? For example, suppose he has an ace-high diamond draw. If a black ace hits on the river, he's more likely to check and call on the river than bet out, because he's afraid I could have trips. So when he does bet on the river, it indicates either an excellent hand or a bluff.

The more I think about it, the more I realize that a bluff-raise on the river would have been correct if I missed. I don't know whether I would have done it at the table. Part of the reason is that if he had bet the river I would have taken so much time to think before I decided to raise, that his suspicions would be alerted.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
Incidentally, once you got rid of the sb with the turn raise and were left with the bb as your lone opponent, you may want to miss your flush. That is, I might hope to miss the flush because the bb appears to be on a draw with the flush draw being most likely. Many times in this spot, a baby blank might be better than a flush card.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excellent point. It's an example of how holdem is a counterintuitive form of poker as compared to, say, 7-card stud, as Mason has pointed out. I put in all those bets on earlier streets because I have such a great draw, but now I'm hoping to miss my draw so I can win with a bluff.

[mike l.]

re: a bluff raise on the river:

i think it's just trip jacks if he bets the river, more often than a bluff. the reason being that you 3 bet the flop and then raised the turn. after youve shown so much strength, it'd be pretty high level thinking for 10-20 for him to come at you again on the river looking for a fold. since you have to put in two bets to bluff raise him i think it leans towards -EV unless the guy is a chronic bluffer who would never ever bluff reraise on the river. even then i think it's a very marginal play here.

[brad]

i think in these and similiar situations even if its a -EV play, youre only giving up a fraction of a bet by raising instead of calling. (1/4, 1/3, 1/2, something like that)

so lets say in this specific situation the nay sayers were right and you cost yourself 1/8 or 1/4 BB by raising. i think if you play against the same group of players its worth it to mix up your play.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Even in this situation, I'm only losing .17SB per flop bet. Weigh that against the times that I'm making .5SB w/ each bet that goes into the pot and it's an easy raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

That should say "weigh that against the times that I'm making over 2SB w/ each bet that goes into the pot."

Best case: Make 2SB+ w/ every bet that goes into the pot.
Worst case: Lose .2SB w/ every bet that goes into the pot.

The real number is somewhere in the middle, but it's clear that pumping the flop is the right answer.

[mikelow]

Turn raise is ok to thin the field out. Perhaps you increase the chances to win the pot. If you plan to bluff if you miss, then the raise is correct.

Otherwise (like me) I would have called on the turn, just hoping to make my draw--a lousy way to play.

[Vehn]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, it's rare in my game to see someone call one bet on the flop and then fold if it's raised and reraised.

[/ QUOTE ]

Then I 3-bet every time. Enough said.

[Paluka]

I feel like people are somewhat using hindsight on this turn raise. Sure, his raise knocked out the 2 guys after him and got him into a pot with the overaggro sb and someone on a draw. But if we change the story to one of the guys after him having trip jacks or a slowplayed set and he gets re-raised and is possibly drawing dead people would be talking about what a sketchy play it was.

[skp]

But if someone has trip Jacks behind him, he will raise if MBE just calls (and he might not 3 bet if MBE raises). Granted, MBE may then go on to bluff on the river into trip Jacks who will no doubt call but the point is that the cost of MBE's raise (when someone else has trip Jacks) could very well be minimal. It would be greater if the sb had trip Jacks as he, more than anyone else, will likely 3 bet MBE.

The benefits of raising in such a big pot are obvious particularly when the raise will look pretty convincing to anyone not holding trip Jacks.

[Paluka]

I might just be wrong on this, as nobody is really agreeing with me. Maybe it is Partypoker rotting my mind. But with the kind of action that is being given on this hand, this just doesn't feel like a game filled with the types of players who are going to read the raise as trip jacks and fold in a huge pot. We limped with 97s in the first place, that says something about the kind of game it is. But, sometimes I'm wrong. And this might be one of those times.

[brad]

no i think youre right ive played in some 'spongy' games (low limit) where people will just call on the flop with (high like a Jack) top pair in a family pot.

in those games probably a Jack out there but in more aggressive games the flop action says maybe 50/50 Jack/noJack