$20-$40 Oceanside Hand

[Jim Brier]

I was visiting some friends in Oceanside when I stopped by Oceans 11 to play some $20-$40. I was moved from the "must move" table to the main table when the following hand came up. I am on the button with the Ad-Jd. Five players limp in and I raise. The big blind and the limpers call so we take the flop seven-handed.

The flop was: Td-5d-2d, giving me the nuts.

The big blind bet and only a middle player called. I just called, deciding to slow play.

The turn was: 6c.

The big blind bet. The middle player raised. I 3-bet and only the middle player called.

The river was: 6h

The middle player checked. What should I do?

I will post the results later.

P.S: Despite the so-called "boom" in poker, Oceans 11 does not spread a $40-$80 game anymore. I have also noticed that Casino Arizona doesn't seem to spread the $40-$80 game either preferring a mixed $60-$120 game instead. In my opinion there has been a noticeable decline in middle limit play over the past two years. I think the "boom" in poker must be occurring at the lower limits. Any thoughts?

[David Steele]

Welcome back!

I would bet the river here.

The poker boom may be mostly online.

D.

[Gabe]

I think it is close because you don't know the player and will have to call a check raise. He didn't reraise you on the turn, so he may not have a flush. I think he'll have a set more than one time in three.
The boom must be just here in Los Angeles.

[AJo Go All In]

i think most players would raise a flopped set on a monotone board, i think the middle player flopped a smaller flush than you. bet and pay off a check-raise. he could still put you on AdAx.

[Phat Mack]

I think the boom in poker may not have reached middle limits yet. A lot of young people are watching TV and getting interested in the game, but have not worked their way up. And they may start off more interested in tounements, online or big bet formats.

As to your hand, I would probably bet. He may have an over pair and/or a high diamond. If I were in your opponent's shoes, I would bet the river with a full house, so depending on my read of him, I might feel my flush was still good.

[Triple C]

There's no reason not to believe you're still ahead when the river pairs the board. To fear a full house would be too passive...I doubt many would slowplay a flopped set with a single suited flop. Get those chips in there...

As for the "boom," it's HUGE in online games, and lower limit games...many are getting introduced to hold'em in home games and especially from ESPN which loops the WSOP constantly. New players don't necessarily want to get into the higher limits when they're still learning.

[mikelow]

Welcome back to 2+2.

Admittedly it looks like a check raise is coming if you bet, you will gain a bet if MP has a straight or something like KT. Checking seems pessimistic to me. What kind of player is he? That would help.

As for your second question, middle limit play is alive and well. The Commerce has a lot of 40-80 going, with twice as many tables as 30-60. Ocean's Eleven had a hard time sustaining a 40-80 game; there's not enough players in that area. Also, online poker has cut into some of the action.

[Clarkmeister]

Jim,

I don't think this one is even close. Bet.

[mike l.]

ive played in that game quite a bit although i definitely had trouble winning in it's more loose aggressive moments.

this is a must-bet on the end and flat call a checkraise expecting to be shown a full house. more often than not though you will be looking at a smaller flush. i dont think it's close at all which is why im wondering why you posted this hand. im guessing you were checkraised and shown a full house. by the way i like how you played the flop. far too many players on here think mandatory raising the flop is the correct play. there may be something for flat calling the turn as well, given turn raiser and turn bettor can have very little.

as for your mid limit shrinking question i think the higher mid limits struggle to get a game going in most places, but smaller mid limits like 15-30 are doing well. oceans 11 does get a 40-80 overs going every now and then when there's a tournament or holiday weekend or something. last time i saw one there were some sort of complaints about possible collusion or something from some of the regulars. pretty ugly, but i have to admit i did not get the full scoop. there are sometimes 3 20-40 games going at once on summer weekends.

[M.B.E.]

Jim -- great to see you back on 2+2 after an 8-month absence. How are your studies going?

As for the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/diamond.gif hand, it seems like an easy bet to me but it could be interesting to analyse. First if you figure you can safely fold to a checkraise then you'd have to bet it, because you're easily a favourite those times you are called. The harder question is are you enough of a favourite to bet if you intend to call a checkraise. You might be able to work this out combinatorially if you make some simple assumptions, such as that he would have played a variety of hands exactly as he has done, such as a king-high flush, a queen-high flush, 66, 55, 22, 65s, 43s.

[Jeff V]

Sounds like a pretty easy bet to me.

[Bill Haywood]

If it's a good player, it is hard to picture him sticking around with 6 and something. But if he had pocket sixes, and got trips on the turn, that would explain betting out. Which means he is now check raising with quads.

But that would be a very subtle and well informed read.

I say bet out, unless you know the player well enough to spot quads.

[elysium]

hi jim
interesting hand. on the pre-flop, the good multi-way followed by your raise ties any good reasonable hands down pretty snuggly to the pot. while i don't think that a turn raise will get the fold now if you wind up with something like top pair by the turn, if you flop solidly you should keep them hanging in there.

ok, the blind bets on the flop.....,hmmmm. that's usually fantastic and you don't want to discourage him from betting again and then driving the bets around to you, but he must get a lot of respect and be a good player because many fold. well, while you wouldn't cap the flop if capping meant that the blind wouldn't drive those turn bets around, capping can still be ok-ish here since you're on the absolute button. but not capping is usually best. only if the BB was loose would you go ahead and cap.

ok, now of course here, you called 1 bet. that's ok if you want to get the fold on the turn, but the pot is already large and since it's impossible to reduce the size of the pot, we have to assume the pot size will keep the hands of lesser value than yours hanging in there. and i also follow your advice about tending to bet strongly from the button since your opponents will not suspect a very strong hand. here, if you were in EP, i think calling is more reasonable. if the pot were smaller, i think calling is more reasonable.

dang it jim, i miss your card player articles a lot. your techniques in small pot situations are perfect. you also make a finer gray line of when to and when not to, and when i looked and saw this post i said 'fantastic, boy....do i ever want to congradulate jim on perfect play so he will come back.", and i sit click getting all ready and find that you have given me this.

in all your cardplayer articles, there's nothing like this. i'm sure that you didn't play this hand like this., but you did. yeah, you get your once in a blue moon perfect turn confrontation; staring at 2 cold with the stone cold nuts, but that turn confrontation against the 2 cold mars this post because there is something very important here, in addition to how to play the button 101.

this is a great post because we find out what to do on the river. and with what frequency.

what has happened is so simple you can't see it. on the river you're tied to the pot. he would rarely check and risk losing the benefits of the tie-to. you will surely call. will he never go for a check-raise? no. occasionally he will. how often? with the same frequency that you face a 2 cold with the stone cold nuts. once in a blue moon. should you ever check it down? only if you want to be blue moon quirky, and that's fine as long as you're quirky only once in a blue moon for variance. should you ever pre-plan facing 2 cold with the stone cold nuts? yes, but only once in a blue moon of course.

you need to read j.b.c.p.a. (jim brier card player archives).

the reason for all the celestial references jim is because of mars proximity to earth. if you get a chance, take a breather outside to see mars. it's pretty spectacular. awesome.

i knew i would say the words 'spectacular' and 'awesome' in this thread. clear river bet.

[Sredni Vashtar]

Some ferrets believe that the sets he could hold represent ten hands (TT, 66, 55, 22: 3+1+3+3=10).

Yet other ferrets surmise that he could hold many flushes such as KQ, K9, Q9, J9, 89, 78, 97, 86, and possibly others. This is about 8 or so hands.

Some insolent ferrets suggested he could hold KK, QQ with a diamond, but a third of the group insisted that they couldn't, so we compromised. 6*2/3. That's kinda like 4
hands.

Yet more ferrets interjected that he might have KT, and QT with a diamond. A few dissenters were quickly ushered away. No one has yet heard from them. Some say hemlock....others say they went to a retirement hutch. So that's six more.

And that, dear ferrets, is getting pretty close to the fulcrum. And since guessing the opponents' hands is fun nebulous thing, we will speculate no further. Those of you at home that wish to speculate by your own hand may consider closing the curtains, but that's a personal choice.

So do those hands that represent the check raising hands look about right? If not, no worries.

So those that represent calling hands look about right? Oh, that would be not so bad, really.

You humans do worry so.

If the check raising hands are tighter (there are less than the fulcrum), then bet.

If the calling hands are tighter, don't bet.

If there is some evil combination of the two, adjust and act accordingly.

Be sure to make your ferret fulcrums before you goto the cardroom. We wouldn't want the f-word used in public.

Thank you for reading,

Peace.

Sredni Vashtar

Note: There are certain assumptions made above, left out for clarity, and presumably most of you can gather what they are, and Sredni is a lazy ferret. If you suspect what is posted above is wrong, it might be an interesting thought project to deduce what assumptions that Sredni did make , and thus you can see the wrongness of Sredni's ways. But bear in mind there is still some hemlock remaining and Sredni's teeth are glistening sharp, so govern yourself accordingly. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Philuva]

I think this is an easy bet as well on the river. I would still be forced to call a check-raise.

I think most players come out betting on the river if they made their full-house more often then going for the check-raise here.

[Jim Brier]

I bet because I thought my hand was still good and I would get calls from smaller flushes or maybe even two pair type hands given all the money in the pot. If my opponent had made a full house then I would think he would have bet the river. Furthermore, his raise on the turn seemed more consistent with someone who had flopped a flush than with someone who had made a set.

I turned out to be wrong. My opponent called and won the pot with fives full. A friend of mine, who is a top middle limit player, thought I should have checked.

Given the fact that my opponent was not going to check-raise me when he does fill up, does this make betting on the end more or less attractive? (I think it makes it more attractive).

[Philuva]

It makes it MUCH more attractive, as I think you have to pay-off the check-raise.

The chances of him having a full house is less than him having 2-pair or a smaller flush and only one bet is going in either way makes this a clear river bet.

[skp]

You have an easy bet and he had an easy checkraise on the river and then you would have had an "easy" crying call at the end.

I can't imagine how either of you can play it any diffferently (well, okay, maybe the guy might want to bet the river instead of going for the checkraise).

As for the poker boom, I can only surmise that if there is a boom, it surely must be in the lower limits in the first instance i.e., new players are not going to wade into the 40-80 (or even 20-40) waters as of yet. Perhaps, the effects of the boom will not touch the higher games for a couple of years yet as some of these newer players get some playing experience.

Last but not least, welcome back. I hope it's not just a temporary resurfacing. This place misses you big time.

[mikelow]

Look at it this way: your opponent missed a raise. Was he afraid of you holding pocket sixes or tens?

Personally, I have found the Ocean's Eleven 20-40 game hard to beat; that's why I hardly play there anymore.

[Phat Mack]

Given the fact that my opponent was not going to check-raise me when he does fill up,

I don't understand this. Are you saying it was correct for him not to raise with 5's full? Personally, I would have raised. I agree that his play makes your river bet more attractive.

[Tommy Angelo]

Hi Jim. A happy surge it was to see your name in the latest 2+2 font.

I would have bet the river and folded to a checkraise.

I would have bet the river because after the way the turn betting went down, I would expect a full house to bet out.

I would fold to a checkraise on the river, also because of the turn betting. If he has a flush, he indicated that he is already worried about a higher flush after you threebet the turn and he submissively declines to fourbet headsup. The last thing he wants to see is a pair on the river because that would put him in the familiar "if I wasn't beat before, I am now" pickle. If he can plow through that, emotionally and physically, and checkraise anyway with a flush (or less), in a situation where it is likely to be unthinkable in his mind that you would fold after all this fury, then all I can say is, Lennon bless 'em. He'll just have to take the pot.

I really missed our traditional Bellagio breakfast(s) at 11:30 AM during the WSOP this year with you and Morgan. Nothing is more disappointing to me than the spoiled expectation of free food. I'm going to pester Bob all the way until next year to make sure he shows.


Tommy

[anatta]

I am surprised he didn't check-raise you. Lucky for you, he didn't read your book. I know you have an example where your set is raised on the turn by a likely flush, and advocate check-raising the river when you hit. I think for sure if you know you aren't going to be check-raised, its a clear bet. I'd bet it anyways, but knowing its not a 2:1 proposition (which it would be for me, since I call in a second), really makes betting obvious.

Regarding the poker boom. I play that 20-40 game on the weekends, and its been the highest everytime I go there. No other San Diego casino or cardroom has started spreading higher games. The highest game remains the 30-60 kill in Chula Vista.

Interestingly, there are small buy in no-limit games now being spread at Viejas, Lucky Lady, and Oceans 11. This is a new thing, and I think its a result of the poker boom.

[Boris]

I played 40-80 at Ocean's 11 once last year. they had 3 players that were silent props. I would've been surprised if there wasn't collusion. The game was good though because of 3 players that had, IMO, too much money.

[Jim Brier]

I think he should have raised as well. But given that he didn't means that my risk of betting on the end has been reduced since I will not get check-raised when he has the better hand.

[andyfox]

A Brier and Sredni sighting in one thread, wow.

I'd have bet the river for the reasons eludicated in Tommy's wonderful reply. I probably would call his river check-raise, although Tommy's explanation for why a fold is in order is convincing.

If I knew he were the kind of meekish player to check-call with a full house on the river, I'd have no compunction whatsoever, if indeed I did anyway, about betting the river.

There are a lot of mid-limit games all the time at Commerce. But not a lot at the Bike. I find people all over the place talking about the World Series being shown on ESPN. When I stroll around Commerce, the lower limits section is jammed to the rafters, so perhaps your surmise that the people who are coming to poker are mostly at the lower limits.

As is I'm sure the case with everyone here who misses your posts, I hope we'll be seeing your name here more often and that you are well and doing well.

[Coilean]

Of course you like your river bet more if you know he won't check raise. It seems a little results oriented to justify a bet this way though, as I sure wouldn't be expecting any but your most passive opponents to check call with any hands that beat you on the river.

I do like the river bet, but not the post mortem "He won't check raise if I'm beat here, so that makes it better to bet" reasoning. The reason to bet is there's only 10 reasonable ways for him to have you beat (with the flopped set or runner runner quads), about 13 reasonable hands for him to have that you beat (KQd K9d Q9d Q8d 98d 97d 87d 86d 64d 43s), plus chances he overplayed something (a big diamond with a T) or was in there with something he shouldn't have been in there with that you can beat (Kxd Qxd 43).

In general, I think it's usually worth a bet anytime you're checked to on the river if you can think of at least as many reasonable hands that you can beat (and will call) as there are reasonable hands that beat you (even if they check raise). This is simply because I find most opponents aren't that reasonable, and the unreasonable hands you can beat (and be called by) generally far outnumber the unreasonable hands that beat you (and might check raise), particularly when your hand is the nut flush. They can't hang themselves if you won't give them the rope.