Short Stacked and in the money

[Huh]

Played in a party tournament when this situation came up.

I'm 14 out of 15...Pretty happy since the tournament started with 280. In the money, but the steps get much nicer in 9+.

7 people are at my table and the ante is 100, the blinds are 1000 and 2000. I have 9,873 in T Chips, after paying my 1k small blind and ante.

It's folded to me in the small blind and I pick up

JcKd. There is 3700 in the pot. And the Big Blind is the only person who I have a chip lead over. He has 5285 left after ante and blind.

I push all in.

Comments appreciated.

[Guy McSucker]

Against most opponents, the chance he'll fold plus the chance you'll win when he calls, plus the fact that you're short stacked and would really relish taking the blinds here, make this a good move in my opinion.

Guy.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Automatic.

Assuming all facts in your post, there are no additional facts you could add that would make any other choice better.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[akaholdem]

The best of it

[ZeeJustin]

Since when does Party have antes in tournaments?

[Tyler Durden]

Huh apologizes. He meant it was a Stars tourney.

[trillig]

I agree with the rest and have seen people ALL-IN BB with 2/7 and get wrecked with AA though, LOL! But worth the risk!

Although if you look at it this way:

Everyone else folded, likelihood of BB getting an Ace has significantly increased...

But you are down to nitty gritty time so your KJ is probably the best you will see in next 6 deals so yes, you must PUSH it.

I watch suicides late with QT and JT quite often, so KJ is above average. 8)

-t

[Huh]

Was definately Stars..Sorry bout' that. Unfortunately, I ran into AQ, but at least I had some chips left.


-Huh

[Copernicus]

You are giving him 1.7/1 odds and against random hands you are only a 3/2 favorite. Since its limped around there is also a better than random chance that he's holding an A, which would stink. So, early in a tourney or with an average stack Im not anxious to go all-in here.

In this situation, do you have any read on his play? By this time I might have been able to classify someone as an automatic caller with almost anything, a tight caller, or a folder without an A plus something decent. Since you may dominate even a tight caller, and are only at major risk to a call from A+ I would go all in unless you are sure he is the latter and definitely has the A if he calls. Absent a read that he is the last type, the odds of him having an A have probably gone up to 25% or so, but thats still worth the risk.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

with 3700 in the pot, you're laying a bit more than 2:1. With KJ, you're gold against a random hand, and you desperately need the chips. No matter what the outcome, you only had ONE choice.

al

[Copernicus]

What am I missing? (3700+5285)/5285 is what you are laying, which is 1.7/1, not over 2/1.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

He's got about 9700, and there's 3700 in the pot. The ratio of his stack compared to the amount he stands to win by stealing the blinds is actually closer to 2.6:1. You don't include the other player's stack in the calculation, because you don't stand to win that if you steal the blinds. If you calculated it all INCLUDING THE PLAYER CALLING, it would be different, not only because the pot odds would be different, but because KJ would not always win.

al

[Copernicus]

I disagree. On one part, we may just have a semantic difference. When I use the term "odds you are laying" it refers to the OTHER PLAYERS odds to call, which is based on and is limited to his stack. It is relevant in a steal situation, because it is what the other player is (or should be) basing his decision on. (What are my chances of winning vs a random hand, which takes into account both value and steal bets, compared to
1/(1+1.7) or 37.3%.)

Looking at it from the stealers side, it is not his entire stack that is relevant, only what he needs to risk to win the blinds, which is limited to the opponents stack, compared to the likelihood that he will fold. It doesnt matter if I have a billion chips and the blinds are 3700. The most I can lose is 5285. The percentage of time I need him to fold to break even (when Im on a total steal) is 5285/(3700+5285) or 58.8%. If I were risking my whole stack for the blinds (1,000,000,000)/(3700+1,000,000,000) I would never steal, since he has to fold virtually 100% of the time, but he would never fold because he could call the billion dollar bet with only 5285...which of course makes no sense.

The chances of my hand winning would only be factored in if I am including some value for my hand (ie its not just a steal), in which case I would be looking at total EV as a weighting of his folding and my winnning if he calls, which is easier than odds to understand (at least for an actuary, who's done contingency calculations all day long for much of his career!).

[Al_Capone_Junior]

The person in the SB doing the raising has 9000. The BB and the antes are 3700, with the BB being 2000. I will concede your point in that the BB only has whatever, 5800 or so to call, for a total of 7800 of the 9000 at risk, since even if the raiser loses it all, he will still have a bit more than a grand left. Therefore the true odds would be 7800 to 3700, not 9000 to 3700.

I don't really care what the odds the BB is being offered to call are going to be. I'm never going to be able to do the kind of math needed to also take that into account in my head at the table. I simply assess my best guess at the amount I must risk vs. the chances of him folding, and I add in the chances of my hand winning if I get called. After that, I decide whether to go for it or not. It's a guess, and the math is really only useful after the fact. I also make the odds as long for him as I can in this particular situation, thus the all-in. [note, with much smaller blinds and much bigger stacks, the situation would of course be much different]

I realize how to figure out mathematically where the break even point is, but again, at the table you must make your best guess and go with it.

al