AJs part 1

[Avivs]

Playing in a live 15-30 game on the button you pick up A /images/graemlins/heart.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif
1 limper in MP, you raise, an aggressive player in the SB Reraise and both MP and you calls.
Flop comes: 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
SB bets, MP calls.
Do you Fold, Call or Raise?
(to be continued)

[LondonBroil]

[bruce]

It's an easy call. If you routinely make this type of laydown you are playing way too tight. Firstly by calling you complete the betting action. Secondly and more importantly, and I'll skip the math, why would you even
consider folding? This is a huge pot. You may still have
the best hand, however slim that might be, and depending upon the turn card you may pick up a monster draw, including
an additional out if your Ace is good.

Bruce

[Diplomat]

Call for sure. I'm too tired to do a detailed elaboration, but some of the reasons include:

Your raise could look like an isolation raise of the MP. A three-bet may come from a wider range of hands than you think.

You can pick up quite a few draws on the turn.

The pot is large and looks to get bigger.

-Diplomat

[Avivs]

You call on the flop and the turn is the Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
The board so far: (10 /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif) Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
SB bets and MP Raise!
what do you think they have and what is the correct play?
(results to follow)

[bad beetz]

dending on the bettor and caller. I may call or fold, with calling happening more often. I don't think raising is worth while.

you have two overcards + 3 straight + 3 nutflush. That's enough to pay 1 closing the betting.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you Fold, Call or Raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

Call

[clovenhoof]

Fold fold fold fold fold.

As to the flop, maybe my EV can handle chasing with these hands, but my bankroll can't handle meeting the third standard deviation, which becomes an inevitability.

As to the turn, I guess I just gained an out (traded three jacks for four kings), and now I'm drawing to something that'll win, but I don't see enough cash there to call these two bets and the reraise that will come 33% of the time.

If you can put BB on 3 betting with KT or 99, and limper tagging along with 98 or 93, then by all means fire away, because those are pretty much the only hands you can have sufficient odds to beat.

I don't know the game you play with, but I don't think you can exclude from both hands all of AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AQ, AJ, AT, QT, JT, TT, T8, A8, J8, Q8, 88 or 33 with the certainty you need to make the hand worth playing.

'hoof

[Avivs]

[ QUOTE ]
As to the turn, I guess I just gained an out (traded three jacks for four kings)

'hoof

[/ QUOTE ]

Please count them again.
there are also 4 nines...

[mikelow]

Not even close. Two already in on this raggy rainbow flop with only one heart. Give it up.

[mikelow]

Or were you on tilt. FOLD!!! Now you want to call a raise with a double gutshot (OK, you have some outs now), but a nine might just split the pot.

This hand is much easier to "play" if you you fold on the flop.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
This hand is much easier to "play" if you you fold on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you want to make easy decisions, you could even fold pre-flop or not show up at the cardroom. If you want to make money, you're going to have to make tough decisions.

[Stork]

Let's see...you're getting 12:1 on the flop? And you have a runner-runner str8 and runner-runner flush, and an ace or a jack might be good...call. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[mikelow]

[ QUOTE ]
If you want to make money, you're going to have to make tough decisions.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree, but there's one you could avoid with a fold on the flop. Ok, sometimes you have to get into trouble to get out of it, but why get involved on the flop. There's been a bet and a call on a rainbow flop. I would have tossed this hand into the muck without hesitation.

[Dynasty]

I don't want to avoid making tough decisions. That's where your money is made. You don't fold on the flop because a backdoor nut flush draw and an Ace overcard is worth about 12:1 with position.

[clovenhoof]

Assuming you're right, aren't you 3 bets short? I count nine bets in the flop for your 12 to 1 shot. (Or did I misunderstand what "12:1" means?)

As to the whole tough decision thing, we're talking about a situation where, if the call is right, all the stars have to be in proper alignment, or else you're just another chaser. I don't know if there is anybody who can make the read at the table that you need to make to correctly conclude, "yes, THIS is the time to call."

Not every rainbow has a pot of gold at the end... except maybe for your opponents.

'hoof

[clovenhoof]

[clovenhoof]

Do it like David would do it: what are you hoping to find in the other two hands that you can beat? What is the consequence of hitting an Ace -- how often are you winning the pot, and how often are you paying off an extra bet? And, is a jack even an out now -- if you hit it, will you call a bet?

Pick some numbers, & crunch 'em out. At this point, it isn't all that complicated.

'hoof

[Ed Miller]

I would call the flop and then call again on the turn. All of your straight outs look clean.

[Diplomat]

I would expect to see a couple hands like KK and QT or T8 here, even AQ and J9...but then again, maybe I'm giving your opponents too much credit.

On the turn, you are open-ended with 4.5-1 on your call -- It's a call, although I'd grit my teeth and close my eyes as I pushed 60 bucks into the pot.

I very much doubt there is another J out there to split the pot with you, so a 9 should be good (unless MP limped with J9)

-Diplomat

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Assuming you're right, aren't you 3 bets short? I count nine bets in the flop for your 12 to 1 shot. (Or did I misunderstand what "12:1" means?)

[/ QUOTE ]

You did not misunderstand what 12:1 means. You simply stopped counting at 9. MP, Hero, and Small Blind all put 3 small bets in the pot pre-flop. That's 9. The big blind is 10. Small Blind's flop bet and MP's call makes 12.

[ QUOTE ]
As to the whole tough decision thing, we're talking about a situation where, if the call is right, all the stars have to be in proper alignment

[/ QUOTE ]

There is no need for stars to be in proper alignment. If you have a hand which is worth a call getting 12:1 and you are getting 12:1, then your call is +EV. It doesn't matter if a total brick comes on the turn or if you make a second best hand sometimes.

As far as how you calculate what odds you are getting in this spot, I would usually assume I have 3 good pair outs and definitely a good backdoor flush draw which is worth approximately 1.5 outs. Throw in the backdoor straight draw and I think it's fair to call this a 5-out hand. You only need 8.4:1 to call drawing to a 5-out hand. If you want to be more pessimistic and call it a 4-out hand, you need 10.75:1 pot odds.

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if there is anybody who can make the read at the table that you need to make to correctly conclude, "yes, THIS is the time to call."

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not that difficult a read once you understand that the pot is laying you such large odds that you can call with a very weak hand.

The turn is Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[CrackerZack]

On the flop he's talking about. the 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif is out there, you have AJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif therefore a backdoor nut flush draw. I probably fold here also, but that's why I play LL. Me and tough and marginal decisions often part ways.

[RydenStoompala]

I would raise here, playing off the possible weak call by middle position and the chances of a nothing bet by the agressive player in the blind. This could fold one hand or at least try for a free card if nothing comes on the turn.

[RydenStoompala]

Now that I've correctly raised into this mess, if I do not get a free peak I'm going to put the laces on top and punt. The exception may be a call against the small blind because he just may be working the low pair.

[Avivs]

our hero called on the flop and on the turn and when a rug hit on the river he had to fold...
SB had a set of 10's and MP had a set of 3's.
after the smoke cleared our hero started doubting himself for the way he played the hand.
one point that no one mentioned was that calling on the turn also has the risk of another raise from SB and maybe even a cap from MP so it might cost $120 (and not $60) to call on the turn.
I want to thank everyone for their posts and I would appreciate any final comments anyone might have.

[elysium]

hi aviv
your call closes the action, you're getting correct odds, excellent position, you must call. if you want to get fancy, you could raise, but....no. a raise isn't awful, but you want the SB to bet out, not check, on the turn. no, you won't know until the turn how you will respond to the bet, but you don't want to screw this thing up by scaring the little SB. call.

[skp]

Lots of cards on the turn can give you 12 and maybe even 18 outs for the river. You can't get raised on the flop. Therefore, you should usually call and occasionally raise i.e. if you can get a reliable read by the sb's reaction to your raise as to whether he just has AK/AQ etc.

It's too early to fold, IMO.

[Pot-A]

Another reason you might not want to raise is to avoid a re-raise.

I'm voting for "call" as well.