50-100 overcard problem; odd betting pattern.

[Diplomat]

The recent posts about betting with an overcard or overpair on the board made me think about this hand that I played late last week that I struggled with.

Decent but not great, early morning 50-100 game, 8-handed.

I pick up TT in late position. A decent winning player, but by no means super tricky or tough opponent limps in from middle position. I raise, we end up heads up for two bets.

The flop comes down Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. Check/bet/call.

The turn is a black deuce. Check/bet/call.

The river is the 2 of /images/graemlins/heart.gif for a final board of (Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif) (2 /images/graemlins/club.gif (?) ) (2 /images/graemlins/heart.gif). MP bets.

What action is best on the river? How did I play the hand up to this point? All comments and thoughts appriciated.

-Diplomat

[AJo Go All In]

seems like a no-brainer call. most likely he'll show you busted diamonds. i'm certainly not folding and raising seems pointless, as i doubt he's gonna lay down a Q or call with an 8.

[Gabe]

Call.
I don't think this betting pattern is odd. It is the exact way I would ususally play AQ if the board wasn't suited. (With this board I would usually check-raise the turn.)

[DanZ]

he is most likely afraid of you checking it down. He should not have a busted flush draw with no pair, because he would have tried to take the pot. It's probable he has Ad2d, or a queen, probably with an overcard. Had he had a hand like 99 or so, he would want to end the hand earlier. With Ad2d or a Q, especially QK, he can afford to slowplay more. I would say A8s is possible, but again, this hand probably makes a play for the pot.

I would very strongly condider folding, but calling is not terrible. you are right that raising only has value as a bluff. I would assess the chances of that working based on how likely he folds KQ and plays it that way.

Dan Z

[Rushmore]

I don't see anything odd about this betting pattern.

If the MP knows he's going to call, he's confident that you are not going to try to push him off the best hand by raising on the end, and he suspects he might actually have the best hand and/or have some possibility of pushing you off a better hand, he'll bet 100% of the time with many hands that you can beat.

I consider this an auto-call.

[bruce]

The play of this hand seems pretty staightforward. Unless you know that your opponents is incapable of betting with a worse hand than yours I think you pretty much have to call.
Few players exist who will not take a shot on the river with
an Ace Eight trying to represent a Queen. I would pretty much call most of the time. As a side note if you play against the same opponents you might want to vary your flop play on occassion. Check the flop and regardless of what comes on the turn raise if your opponent bets or bet if he checks. Your play will be much less predictable in the eyes of your opponents.

Bruce

[Diplomat]

I'm not sure this is as no-brainer as people say it is; to me the river bet screamed like a value bet. Any thoughts on that?

-Diplomat

[mike l.]

yeah looks like a stop and go with top pair to me, or maybe he has the overpair? wouldnt surprise me at all. obviously not the time to raise him on the river, but definitely raise here when youre holding AQ and he pulls the same stunt. i wouldnt be shocked if he has A8 and he decided youd call with AK on the end. if he's playing that way with you use sklansky style game theory to raise him with your middle pairs and stuff more often.

[Coilean]

It looks a lot like he has QJs and didn't want to face a raise earlier, but is now betting for value. But he may also be trying to scare you off an AK that he can't beat or even betting an 8 for value, so it seems like you have to make the crying call unless you think he would attempt this less than 13% of the time. Keep in mind you haven't really done anything to make him read you for better than ace high yet.

[Philuva]

I think you have to call. I don't see much value in raising as it will probably not get him to fold a Q, only worse hands will fold. I don't like a fold here either.

I think he could be betting for 3 reasons:
1. Value bet (that you can beat) with him fearing you will check your big A behind. A hand like 77, 99 or A8. Also, he figues he is going to call anyways so he might as well bet the river and plans to fold to a river raise.

2. Value bet (that you can't beat) with him fearing you will check your big A or underpair behind. A hand like QJ, TJ, A2s.

3. Bluff with a missed flush.

In all three situations, I could see him playing it the same way on a streets, except in situation 2, I would expect a bet or check-raise on the flop or turn more often. This leads me to call even more here on the river given the possible scenarios.

[ML4L]

Hey Diplomat,

I would call the river and expect to see a busted flush draw or smaller pocket pair often enough to make it profitable. I think you played the rest of the hand well.

ML4L

[Diplomat]

Thanks for the responses. For those of you who suggest calling and assume I would be shown a pocket pair or middle pair most of the time (or even a good portion of the time), why not raise?

-Diplomat

[ALL1N]

[ QUOTE ]
As a side note if you play against the same opponents you might want to vary your flop play on occassion. Check the flop and regardless of what comes on the turn raise if your opponent bets or bet if he checks.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is terrible Bruce. Giving free cards with a pair as low as tens is something you don't do. He'll fold (or better still, call) with Ax, AJ, KJ etc - and you propose to let him see the turn for free to hit a higher pair. That's a nono. Save this play for AK, Bruce.

ALL1N

[bruce]

All I proposed was on occassion, a small percentage of the time, to make this type of play. I like to mix up my play.
Players pretty much expect your automatic bet on the flop. If you never make this type of play your play is too predictable. Granted, when you make this type of play you are giving up a potentially bad free card, but what you give
up offsets what you gain in being a hard read.


bruce

[mike l.]

raise the river? why get tricky here? a Q will crying call, time to just pay off and get over it. overworrying about river folds is silly, this is not that big a deal. next hand.

[elysium]

hi diplomat
looks like a fold here.

[Diplomat]

Hi E,

Could you elaborate as to why this should be a fold?

-Diplomat

[ALL1N]

[ QUOTE ]
Granted, when you make this type of play you are giving up a potentially bad free card, but what you give
up offsets what you gain in being a hard read.


[/ QUOTE ]

Checking once in a while will make you an easier read, not a harder one. If you bet 100% of the time, then you are giving away absolutely nothing when you bet; this is not so when you choose to check some of the time.

NB: I am not advocating betting 100% of the time. There are times when checking behind is advantageous. Just remember that if you check your strong hands behind, you must also check your weak hands behind to balance your play. Not your leading but vulnerable hands, however (such as you advocated). These should always be bet.

A good example is this:

You raise and end up headsup with position. The flop is TT5 rb. You should bet KK and lower pairs, and any ace (all vulnerable leading hands), and mix between checking or betting with AA, any ten, and missed hands. Good players are capable of checkraising you when they miss here, representing trips. By checking behind with crap, they will become ultra-cautious, and taking it down becomes a lot easier.

Cheers

ALL1N

[elysium]

hi diplomat
as you do the posts here, you begin to develop hand-reading of the poster. i know for example that this has not been a good session, and that you're down at this point. also, your opponent is winning, and is likely coming in with strong starters and you haven't been able to connect on him because he's dodging when weak. and i think you ran a bad bluff against this guy, only that's a guess.

i just know that you lose here because of the style of this post. i know you call. he shows JJ and you think there is something that you could have done.

no, there's nothing you could have done, and since tough folds here and there should be done on occasion, since i suspect you bluffed him earlier and got called, your due for a tough fold.

make sure that you don't fold like this even a third of the time. about 80% of the time, call. but since you've been steaming a little in this session, just fold. i know you called, but it would have been better to fold, tighten and ram and jam with the goods.

awww diplomat, you'll never believe it. i had a better thread for you but i picked up the stupid keyboard thing and hit the escape. everything got erased, unless i could have retreived it somehow. i was trying to explain how to use the card room t.v. to increase your ev a little. how to get the floor person to come over quickly when you call for a channel change; what channel for what hands; c-span for small suiteds when you want passive action,etc.

if you decide to study how opponent habits are influenced by television, pay particular attention to the stock market. if the market goes down and your opponent is unhappy but bets, he could be steaming. i have noticed this. and many other ways the t.v. influences the table. when they're showing a boxing match, i've noticed if i say, "devestating right!", as i bet, few will call if i put my chips in a certain way. or, if they're showing a tennis match, if i go "ughh!", like that as i put my chips in on the serve, many will volley with their chips. that's good for calls. just little things i've picked up here and there from studying television and opponent betting habits. even which channel for which type hands. oh well. stupid escape button.

[Diplomat]

Hi E,

fortunately for me, your thoughts about my session were quite incorrect. I think I was up close to 27 big bets at this point, and I did win the hand. And my opponent was about even for the night.

As many of you guessed, my opponent turned over A8s and I won the pot with my thunderbirds. I thought the hand was interesting because I thought there was a marginal yet profitable chance to raise the river with an overcard on the board to my pocket pair. This betting pattern, to me, signifed a weak hand. Any further comments or thoughts?

-Diplomat