Is it worth the risk?

[Spencer S. Smith]

4th round of a paradise $10 tourney and I've caught 3 monsters and busted 3 people from the tourney. I'm in a massive cheap lead with over 5,000 chips, 2nd place has 2,000 or so.

Tight table, a better field than your average $10 crowd.

My table image is tight and aggressive, I have shown down only quality winners and trapped 2 people preflop, once with AA and once with KK (running about as well as I could).

2nd place chip leader (T2200) in mid/late position doubles the blinds (200 to go) and I make it 600 from the cutoff with 89o (its a bluff).

Button cold calls and opener calls the T400 raise.

Flop comes

8 /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif

opener checks to me and I lead enough to put them both all-in (T2000ish from my stack of T5000ish) and they both call.

MP opener shows K /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and LP shows A /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif

Turn and river come 10 Q to give the Ks his runner runner straight.

I ran the hand in a hand calculator, and I was the biggest favorite on the flop with a 43% chance of winning. Since I was getting at least 2:1 when they both called me (not to mention the added equity of my leading into that pot after a big preflop raise increases the chance of opps folding) allows me to justify my decision.

I think I made the right (albeit very aggressive, and optional) play. The question is, as the chip leader, do I get involved in this pot or should I have passed?

If I should of passed at any time, it should of been preflop, but I think once the flop hit, I was committed.

Thoughts?

[ohkanada]

Fold pre-flop and its not even close.

Once you played it and flopped 2 pair, get the chips in the middle as you did.

Ken Poklitar

[Copernicus]

IMO a big stack and tight image early in a tournament is wasted if you are going to run pre-flop total bluffs. The stack is better used to apply extra pressure with solid, but vulnerable hands and for judicious bluffing on the turn or river (eg when it is apparent a draw has been missed, but you still may not be best hand, or when a threatening board hits that is consistent with your betting.)

[Scooterdoo]

Yes, you took a chance at a bluff which I think was wrong at this point for a few reasons (with so many chips you should let the others knock themselves around a bit, and use your chip lead to go for blind steals and semi-bluffs. In this circumstance since someone already opened with a raise it wasn't worth the risk).

Once you did this and flopped two pair you still had two people that had been in for your raise so they easily could have had at least one pair over yours, a flush draw, or a gut straight draw. Yes, you were most likely a favorite, but your edge was likely less than 10%. In a tournament situation unless you are a large favorite why risk so many chips against two players when you are already well in the lead? Over the long haul you probably had the right odds, and betting heavily in a ring game was the right move, but I'm not convinced it was in this situation.

[cferejohn]

Everyone else is already saying this, but I wouldn't try this kind of pre-flop bluff on a hand where someone has already shown strength. If you want to raise with 89o first into the pot on a blind steal, but if you're going to be re-raising someone, you generally want some kind of a hand.

That out of the way, I think the all-in on the flop is correct.

Also, MP needs his head examined for not coming over the top pre-flop. I mean, what's the point of the min-raise slowplay with a monster if you are not going to get as many chips in with a big advantage as you can? Worked out for him though.

[happyjaypee]

pre flop fold. Your goal is to finish 1st, not to make the smarter play.

Post flop perfect, you actually where agains the worst possible hands (That does not already has you beat like a set) for them to draw out and you still were the bigger favorit.


-Happy /images/graemlins/laugh.gif