value bet with trip aces on board

[mikelow]

Online 15-30. I'm dealt 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif on the button. EP call, folded to me. I raise to isolate (?), but both blinds call, as does EP. EP is a bit loose.

Flop is A/images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Checked to me, and I bet my underpair. Both blinds fold, but EP calls.

Turn is:

[A/images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif] 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Checked to me. I bet and EP calls.

River is:

[A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif]A /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Checked to me. Is this a value bet? Results to follow.

[Ginogino]

Mike:
Clearly yes. The only question in my mind is whether you'd make more by checking to induce a bluff (that is, how often your opponent will call if you bet versus how often he'll bluff if you check). This is very player specific, of course. But most of the time EP's limp pre-flop means he doesn't hold pocket pair 8's or higher, and odds are against his holding an Ace. I'd think you'd have heard a bet from someone with a 7. Pocket 6's? Maybe, but worrying about that seems unhelpful.

This is a spot where player knowledge really pays off. I know folks who'd are slowplay addicts with any Ace in this situation, against whom I'd give more thought to checking here. I know others who'd have had to check-raise at some point before the river with any pocket pair, 7, or 4.

Gino

[elysium]

hi mike
you are very close to being a 60% favorite if called and the conditions are ok. but remember, when you make a value bet, you must have a fairly solid image. if you've been betting under-pairs strongly heads up, then you check it down here. if you have been showing down the goods, but you're up against a steamer, strongly consider checking it dowm. your image and the table has to be on a level keel and conservative-ish, just like it needs to be before bluffing, in order to value bet in these marginal situations. it is not just getting money into the pot. one component of a value bet is some realistic possibility of getting the fold, but also, and just as importantly, not being raised. if you wouldn't run a total bluff because of the conditions, then don't value bet.

it looks like you're good here. but many players tend to value bet because they have a tiny lead and want to get more money in the pot, not considering their image or the table. that's wrong because value betting is not strategically betting to fold out middle pairs higher than yours, hands that may fold. value betting is done with only a slim chance of getting a fold and a more likely chance of getting called by lesser hands. obviously, if your opponent is going to fold all hands that you beat, and only call with better hands, value betting is wrong. you're then risking an avoidable raise. here mike, he looks K high to me and i think he will call. he may have 22, 33, but he also may have middle pair. there is a slim chance that he will fold it if bluffing conditions exist, and as long as you are perceived as solid, go for it. the great majority of the time, you won't have all these factors, and therefore you should usually check it down.

[Rushmore]

What beatable hands can this EP caller have here?

Uh, 22, 33, KQ, or, uh...what?

This seems to me to be a perfect spot to check the turn and call the river. But seeing as you have decided to bet the turn (to be called by...what?), I don't see a value bet on the end.

The biggest question you can ask is what did this player call with on the flop? The 3 hands I listed above are the only 3 remotely likely beatable hands that I can find.

If this is true, you can't really see a value bet here, can you?

[Inthacup]

I'd bet.

[DrSavage]

I put him on pocket pair. Since you don't beat a whole lot of pocket pairs i think it's check and call situation

[Inthacup]

The only question in my mind is whether you'd make more by checking to induce a bluff (that is, how often your opponent will call if you bet versus how often he'll bluff if you check).

I assume you're talking about the river. How can he check to induce a bluff if he's last to act?

[DrSavage]

check out of turn ? /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Inthacup]

lol

[pilchard]

As always, it depends on the player but I would take the following factors into account.

He limps from EP and you raise so he should (depending on your table image) put you on a decent holding.

It is checked to you on the flop and you bet an AA7 r board. He calls. There are no draws there at all. Depending on the player he is unlikely to have a 7 after limping from EP. It all depends on your table image. If you make this isolation raise with a lot of hands (which you probably do given your 55 raise and the fact both blinds called you) he may think he is drawing live with a hand like KQ or KJ. The point is that he does not believe that you have an A.

The turn is a blank and he check calls. This situation is so specific to each other's playing characteristics. If you are the kind of player who keeps betting but are prepared to fold to a turn check raise he may have an A (although the river card reduces the chances of this).

On the river the 3rd A falls and it is checked to you. I would check here. As stated previously, he did not believe you had an A before the river card and he definitely doesn't now. Given he did not raise up front he is unlikely to have TT-KK. 99,88,66,44(unlikely as no turn raise),33,22 are possibilities. He may have paired a 7 instead. By checking you also remove the possibility of getting check raised as you would have to fold unless the player was extremely tricky.

He has shown no intention of folding a better hand. You do have a pair to showdown. If you bet 33 or 22 may call you depending on the player. You may get a K to call you but there are too few worse hands that will call to merit a bet in this position for my liking and you remove the possibility of being moved off your hand by a bluff raise.

[Philuva]

I think you have a clear bet on the river. I think the fact your 55 is higher than the low card on the board, plus the fact he will most likely call you down with K and probably even Q high makes this a clear value bet.

[Rushmore]

So, then, the EP player puts our hero on, what...T/J?

Is this table still open? Can I get a seat?

[Diplomat]

I am not really sure what hand EP could call with if you bet, except a hand that beats you. Also I presume you could not push EP off a hand that beats you by betting the river. I'd check and hope to win against face cards or a 4.

-Diplomat

[skp]

IMO, checking the turn is the wrong play. This is because you cannot be put in a tough spot if you bet the turn. If you get raised, you fold. Simple. On the other hand, betting might get the other guy to fold a hand better than yours (i.e. 88, 87 etc.) or fold a draw with 6 outs i.e. KQ etc.

As for the river play, I would check here. The chances of being called by a 7 or a bigger pocket pair are way higher than the chances of getting called by King high or a tiny pocket pair. If the flop were AA4 and the turn was a 7, I could more easily accept the logic of a value bet on the river.

[Philuva]

You would be surprised what people would call here with. Most people don't think about what the other person has. They think, no way this guy has an Ace here, I am calling him down with my KJ, or QT, etc.

[Rushmore]

I've been down that thought process myself, and I guess ultimately, the question is about the type of player we're facing.

Not much chance of getting a better hand to fold on the turn, IMO, so I won't address the 88 or 8/7 scenarios.

As for the KQ, I don't see it as particularly likely, given the circumstances, so I don't consider it likely enough to try to protect against.

I realize the fact that in this position with pocket 5's, we're vulnerable and want to protect our hand. But opening the betting after he's checked in front of us might be exactly the worst way to do that. I know plenty of players who could make the play (check-raise bluffing at the turn here) if they read you for weak.

I dunno.

[mikelow]

To recap: I had pocket fives. The board was:

A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/club.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

EP checked, and I bet. He called and showed 9/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/spade.gif and took the pot.

In retrospect the bet on the end was dubious as there was almost nothing I could beat (22, 33, Kx) and I will more likely be called by a better hand.

[skp]

I agree with portions of your post but not the part where you say "not much chance of getting a better hand to fold on the turn".

Look at it at the other way; suppose I posted this hand:

I limp UTG with 88 and button raises. Both blinds call. The flop is AA7. I check to the button who bets. Both Blinds fold. I call.

The turn is a 4.

I check. Button bets. What should I do?

I guarantee you that almost everyone will say that (a) I should have played the flop harder or (b) having played the flop the way I did, I should fold now on the turn when the preflop raiser bets again. After all, most of the time, the PFR is going to have an Ace or a pocket pair bigger than 8's.

So...I think a turn bet by the button with 55 is a must.

[mikelow]

Would be betting all the way. Now suppose I had pocket fives and the board was:

AA 4 7A.

Now I would value bet the river beacuse there are more hands I could beat, namely a pair of fours. The sequence
of how the cards came is important.

[M.B.E.]

Personally I would value-bet the river in my regular game because of my image as someone who bluffs a lot on the river.

Many players in my regular game would have played KQ, KJ, KT, even K9 against me exactly as this opponent did, and would definitely call one more bet on the river with KQ or KJ.