A Paired Board

[jen]

I hadn't played limit in awhile and decided to step into this live game. I wasn't in this particular hand but was wondering what you guys thought of this laydown.

40-80. Tight, solid UTG limped. Live MP who plays any two limped. LP who was holding black Qs raised. Both players called.

Flop: [J /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif]

Check-check-bet-call-call.

Turn: [J /images/graemlins/club.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif]8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Bet-raise-fold-fold.

I never found out what MP had, but I thought the pocket Qs fold was horrible. What do you guys think?

[FletchJr.]

I think one of them has at least an eight. Maybe there's a slight possiblity that the live guy has something weaker or he may be even wilder and have only a flush draw. but having to call 2BB's cold there and maybe even a possible 3 if the original better re-raises, it's probably the correct play to muck. If the live raiser is capable of making that play with only a jack then the situation really calls for a reraise. Either way it's a pretty tough decison and it's going to be expensive to see it through. Mucking is my choice aswell.
let's try to break it down.
7.5sb's preflop
3 more sb's the flop.
so on the turn with a bet and a raise to the QQ's the pot will have 8 bb's when it's up to the QQ's to act.
it's going to probably be at least 3 Bb's to see it down.
if the QQ's just call. and the original better folds.
and the river's a blank and the action goes bet, call.
(probably one of the best situations for the QQ's)
The effective odds on the turn will be 9:3.
This means you got to be good at least 33% of the time after a blank comes on the river.
On top of that, at the time of the fold in the hand the player didn't know if the turn was going to 3 bets or 4 bets. Plus he doesn't know what the turn will bring. What if an overcard comes down or what about a heart, does that change anything??
Tough decision on the turn, I'd just fold.

[mike l.]

"I never found out what MP had, but I thought the pocket Qs fold was horrible. What do you guys think?"

we'd have to know more about mp, but it looks like a good fold to me. it seems pretty clear that mp probably has an 8, and that there are a lot of 8s he could have if he's a live player. am i missing something here jen?

[elysium]

hi jen
it's not as a bad a fold as it looks, and while i would need a little more info than what is posted here to make this same fold, it looks like a good tough fold.

good players can fold here if their image is right, and they don't suspect a bluff. yes, there is a loose player in there, but this is a lay-down that can be made.

if the folder has not made some recent tough calls that he showed down, or the solid hasn't recently departed a little from his solid play, then i wouldn't go along with the fold. if the folder wasn't sure about what conditions existed or wasn't paying attention, then the fold is wrong. this one jen unfortunately depends on a lot of factors, and while 90% of the time it's a call, there is nothing in the post excluding this hand from falling out of the 10% folding range. the main point is that one solid is betting into another solid who showed pre-flop and flop strength. furthermore, he gets raised by a player who expects to have that raise called. the solid also makes a dangerous check-call. he is a favorite to have QQ beaten and QQ can't close the action. the reasons to call are that there is a draw on board and a loose player in this 3 way, and of course the over-pair can improve to the near nuts.

in this situation, good average players should always call, but a very good experienced player CAN make this tough fold. that's as well as i can describe it. and jen, a highly experienced player can reraise with QQ here. but conditions must be perfect to do so. no one right answer. there is an answer though, that is never wrong, and that of course is to call.

[jen]

True, I guess you'd have to know more about MP who's a totally live player. He plays almost any two pre-flop, calls down if he's got any piece of the board, stays in for gutshots to the river. Interestingly, he was hitting everything while I was there.

I thought there was no way UTG was holding an 8 (unless he was holding two of them, in which case he wouldn't have bet out). He's tight and came in UTG. If he were holding a J, he would've bet or raised the flop. I figured he had a pair and was making a play for the pot. I thought MP could've been holding a J just as well as an 8 (or even a 3). I would've called the turn at the very least.

[jen]

"the main point is that one solid is betting into another solid who showed pre-flop and flop strength..."

I don't think I described the pre-flop raiser as solid. I'd call him loose-passive actually. He was getting run over by the table and was getting so frustrated that he started showing me the top pairs that he kept throwing away. (I've never seen this guy before in my life.) After he threw this one away, I told him I thought his hand was good.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
After he threw this one away, I told him I thought his hand was good.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I said anything to him, it would be something like "easy laydown - that guy definitely has trips." I want him to still make this kind of laydown when I'm in the hand.

[elysium]

hi jen
ok, the info that you didn't include jen is pretty important, but is often omitted by posters. the only thing though, is that if you didn't include the vital opponent knowledge info about the MP in your post, no problem, we can sense something is missing. you'll get advice with notice that we think something is missing. you'll even sense our feeling that something is lacking when you read our replys, and get enough advice to put the pieces together with, or without giving us all the vital info; no, not as direct and maybe lacking here or there on something we might have added on for clarification in a relevent point of interest in the specific situation posted, but you'll get by.

the only thing though, is that if you leave out vital opponent information in your post, you are also not including it in your poker decisions at the table, where you have even less opportunity to consider everything going into your decisions. and if you leave that info out here where you do have the time and tranquility, you are also leaving it out there, at the table in the heat of battle, when you may not want to be so analytical at the table. and that is important.

at the table, when you act on the information that you have processed, if you fail to include in your decision making process vital and important opponent knowledge, you will likewise sense that your opponents think that you have left something out; that something is missing. he will say, "is something missing here jen? raise!"; not in so many words, but you'll get the point. and you will not find that opponent so benevolent and supplementing, and when you reach for your chips to put everything back together again, they will be gone; because you didn't include vital opponent information in your decision making process.

very important jen. not considering opponent knowledge in your decisions will cost you many, many bets.

[andyfox]

I wouldn't have laid the hand down. You've got a tightass UTG; he doesn't have an 8. You've got a wildman raising on the turn when a second heart hits the board. I wouldn't be worried about a 3-bet from UTG and I wouldn't be surprised if the wildman doesn't have an 8. And I can still spike a Queen on the river.

I agree it's a tough decision, but I'd lean towards not laying it down. And if I don't lay down, a raise might be better than a call. (There, now we'll have some real controversy.)

[jen]

Man, you're cold... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Ulysses]

Seriously, what's the point of telling a stranger who's getting run over in the game that you thought his hand was good?

Ideally, all my opponents at the table feel good and play bad. In a scenario like this, it seems like your comment to him will potentially accomplish the opposite - make him feel bad about his laydown and make him play better in the game.

On the flip side, I'm more than happy to tell a poker buddy at the table that he made a ridiculous laydown or a terrible call. I save most of my spewing of BS for people I don't know. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[jen]

Well, I felt a little badly for the guy. I mostly just empathized with him -- but I hated this laydown. And I didn't even discuss the hand with him -- just told him that I thought his hand was good. If he plays a little tougher because of my comment, then good for him.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, I felt a little badly for the guy. I mostly just empathized with him -- but I hated this laydown. And I didn't even discuss the hand with him -- just told him that I thought his hand was good. If he plays a little tougher because of my comment, then good for him.


[/ QUOTE ]

Sure. You probably just made him feel bad, though. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[Pot-A]

Remember that when he calls your bluff.

[M.B.E.]

Could UTG's turn bet indicate a draw? In other words either T9s or Ahxh? (Or maybe Th9h?) Or are we certain that UTG would not have limped preflop with T9s and would not have called the flop with Ahxh.

The MP might have an 8 or might have a jack. Or maybe the MP is the one who picked up a heart draw.

It isn't "horrible" to fold QQ here, but I do think raising is better.

[Tommy Angelo]

I wasn't there but here's what I think happened. There's a human male who plays $40-80 and all of a sudden he finds himself sitting next to an attractive and confident human female and he hasn't even left the poker table. Having lost contol of his comportment, he genetically slips into showoff mode. He flashes his pocket queens.

Then the turn card comes and he faces two cold. Oops. He wishes he hadn't shown his hand. Two choices he has. Call and payoff trip eights or full house or bigger overpair or whatever, for many small piles of chips on two streets, and look bad and feel bad and yuck. Or. He can flex his tail and make the big laydown. The risk, that it goes to showdown and he would have won. But he still saves face even then because the effort at greatness was supreme. The best result: that it goes to showdown and he would have lost and Jen has a proper chance to be most impressed.

The result:

"I thought the pocket Qs fold was horrible."

Oh well. He tried!


Tommy