overplayed along the way?

[offTopic]

I was trying to redo the hand so it wouldn't be another "How to play aces" post, but the fact that I had an ace is central to the hand, so...

3-6 game, EP limps, I raise in MP with AA, LP coldcalls, BB calls, 4 to the pot for 8sb.

Flop is Q64, all diamonds. I have the ace of trump.

BB checks, EP bets, I auto-pilot raise. Here's question 1...if I had a hand like AQo, no diamonds, I'd want to raise here:
- because I likely have the best hand
- to charge/shutout single-diamond flush draws
- to see if anyone flopped a hand that beat mine (set/flush most likely in this case)
- to get the button

In this case, though, I don't really want to shut out the single-diamond draws, and unless something wacky happens, I'll likely see the river, if not the showdown, so the information aspect is probably not that important. In short, by raising, I'll likely fold out the people I want to stick around, while possibly getting reraised by any hand (however unlikely) that beats mine. Is this raise a mistake?

Coldcaller folds, BB folds, limper 3-bets it.

OK, I'm thinking he might have a flush, a small set, or something like QJd or KdQ, all possible limping hands. The one thing I know for sure is that he doesn't have the nut flush, and must be wary of it, so I cap (Overplay?) 15 sb in the pot (accounting for rake)

Turn is the As, giving me top set + nut flush draw...limper leads out again! He's apparently not kidding around, but if I'm not already leading, I've picked up a ton of outs.

Clear raise here, right? Even if I _know_ he's got the flush? If I give my opponent a made flush, without straight flush potential (maybe a faulty assumption, but it makes the calculation a little harder) then I'm a 27-17 dog on the river and the pot's laying me 4.75-1 on a raise...I should be happy to put in a _few_ bets here, right?

This may all be really straightforward, but I've been making some plays lately that have me questioning my thought processes.

TIA

[Joe Tall]

I think you played it fine. I'd cap the flop and raise the turn every time. If he 3-bets the turn, I'd call down, unless the board pairs or your diamonds hit.

He could be playing a set of 6s like this.

Peace,
LJF33

[JTG51]

I'd cap the flop and raise the turn also, however some of your thought process is a little off.

The amount of money in the pot is irrelevant when you are heads up and thinking about a raise. You are getting 1-1 on your raise, since only one other person is putting in money. Therefore, if you are an underdog on the turn and you are heads up, you lose money with every bet that goes into the pot no matter how much is already in there.

That doesn't mean you shouldn't raise the turn though, since you'll often have the best hand. It just means you shouldn't raise here if you know he has a flush. As you said you have 17 outs to win against a flush on the turn, so you'll only win about 39% of the time. That means for every dollar that goes into the pot on the turn your equity is only 39 cents.

However, if there was a third player in the pot that was drawing dead, and willing to call all bets, you'd want to raise and reraise even knowing your opponent had a flush. That's because you are only putting in 1/3 of the money, but your equity is more than 33%.

Make sense?

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]
then I'm a 27-17 dog on the river and the pot's laying me 4.75-1 on a raise...I should be happy to put in a _few_ bets here, right?


[/ QUOTE ]

The 4.75 to 1 are the pot odds. You clearly have the odds to call, but you are not calculating the odds to raise correctly. To profitably raise here, you need to win more than half the time becuase you only have one opponent. If you opponent has a flush, you do not have the odds to raise, since you a 27-15 dog. (you only have 7 diamond outs, since two are in your opponents hand if you are sure he has a flush, and 8 outs to quads or a full house.) With another caller, or if your opponent has anything other than a flush, you clearly have the odds to raise, since top set is the second nuts.

Since your opponent could have a set, a pair and the K diamonds or 2 pair, in addition to a flush, I might raise here on the turn, even though you capped the flop and he is still comming.

I would raise the flop too, since you flop raise looks like a big pair trying to charge the draws and the K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif is unlikly to fold for one or two bets, but I think the J folds either way. A queen with no diamond redraw may call one but not two flop bets. While it may be hard to say how many overcalls you get if you merely call, I like you hand heads up most of the time and hopefully your opponents are fond of making bad calls.

[JTG51]

If you opponent has a flush, you do not have the odds to raise, since you a 27-15 dog. (you only have 7 diamond outs, since two are in your opponents hand if you are sure he has a flush, and 8 outs to quads or a full house.)

I hate to nitpick, but...

He does have 17 outs against a flush. He's got 10 full house/quads outs, not 8. Also, if he had 15 outs he'd be a 29-15 dog, not a 27-15 dog.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
The amount of money in the pot is irrelevant when you are heads up and thinking about a raise. You are getting 1-1 on your raise, since only one other person is putting in money. Therefore, if you are an underdog on the turn and you are heads up, you lose money with every bet that goes into the pot no matter how much is already in there.

That doesn't mean you shouldn't raise the turn though, since you'll often have the best hand. It just means you shouldn't raise here if you know he has a flush. As you said you have 17 outs to win against a flush on the turn, so you'll only win about 39% of the time. That means for every dollar that goes into the pot on the turn your equity is only 39 cents.

However, if there was a third player in the pot that was drawing dead, and willing to call all bets, you'd want to raise and reraise even knowing your opponent had a flush. That's because you are only putting in 1/3 of the money, but your equity is more than 33%.

Make sense?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nicely put JTG. Yes, that makes perfect sense. Thanks!

"Sometimes when learning comes before experience It doesn't make sense right away."
-- Richard David Bach (b. 1936), American author, "Jonathan Livingston Seagull"

[J.R.]

[J.R.]

[Ed Miller]

There is no such thing as "odds to raise." In this case, I think the raise is clearly the best play against most players. He plans to show his hand down, and he can likely take a free showdown if he raises the turn. The difference lies in what happens when a fourth diamond hits. Either way (raise or call the turn), his opponent is likely to check to him on the river. So he wins 3 bets when he raises the turn, but only 2 when he just called on the turn.

[offTopic]

[ QUOTE ]

<snip>

Make sense?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, thanks - I thought there might be something amiss in that whole process.

Not that it matters, but the river came a 4 pairing the board, and I checked behind fearing quads. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

OK, I'm joking about checking behind...it went check-bet-call, and the limper had Td 8d for the flopped flush, so I drew out on him (albeit with a monster draw).