15-30 Turn Situation...Raise, fold or call? And is it close?

[Jeffage]

Playing 15-30 online. Game is typical in that many players are seeing the flop for one or two bets. I'm dealt J /images/graemlins/heart.gifJ /images/graemlins/spade.gif in late middle position. UTG calls, next player raises, fold to me, I make it 45, very loose button coldcalls, SB mucks, BB calls, limper calls, original raiser calls. 5 to the flop, $230 pot. Flop comes 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif2 /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif. Check to me, I bet, everyone calls. Turn comes the 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif. BB checks, first limper bets, original preflop raiser calls, now it's up to you with the button and BB to act behind you. Call, fold, or raise? Why? This is the kind of game where someone may come alive and bet a turned flush draw with a pair. But with all the other players in the pot do I still have a raise? Many ways I feel like I should to protect my hand...a queen seems unlikely because everyone just check-called the flop, but in these games something like Q7s is very possible. The sheer number of callers makes it more likely that a queen is out but I also feel like I might still have the best hand? When in doubt, raise? What would you do? What I did and my thinking to follow.

Thanks,
Jeff

[jujujaja34]

Hey Jeff,

It's definitly a unique situation when you raise with JJ and the board comes Qxx as opposed to QQ with a Kxx board or KK with a Axx board. I see no real reason to believe you're behind although you obviously very well could be.

I see it like this as far as your three options (in order):

1. Raise (you very well could be ahead and a raise should let you know where everyone else is at)

1a. Fold (very close to a raise in my opinion b/c you could very well only have 2 outs)

1643. Call (way behind a raise and fold for a multitude of reasons)

I thinks it's nip and tuck between a raise and fold b/c of the game you describe. Much comes down to the general perception you have of your opponents. I'm curious to hear what the big boys think. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

jujujaja34

[bugstud]

Way outta my league here, but I'll stab at mucking this. Granted, I wouldn't like it at all, but it's a reasonable play. I think the analysis given above is dead on

[elysium]

hi jeff
good post. well, you raised. after a while you start to hand-read these dang posts. anyone else see jeff's raise here? it does help at the table when hand-reading, answering these posts.

anyway, no jeff, i don't like your raise here, fold. i know. you raised and got heads up with AK or TT, but you have too much against you here jeff to continue on further. if the Qxs is clubs, you could easily be raised from behind.

i agree that it looks like a flop bet and turn raise. and while you took out the EP in this one, you will more often than not get reraised or called down by a better hand. too many opponents, poor position, over-carded.....yuck. fold it.

[stripsqueez]

fold

its the 2 guys behind me that really scare me

calling is a distant third

[MrHeadsUp]

[hutz]

i would never bet the flop

Never?! That's a strongly worded weak (and necessarily incorrect) statement. I can think of many, many situations in which a bet on that flop would be correct, including when I didn't know anyone at the table.

It's not often that someone posts in a thread following an elysium post and actually gives worse advice. Congratulations! /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

Sorry if this comes across as being mean, but your statement made my eyes cross and my head hurt.

[Jeffage]

I raised the turn. I did this because I thought I may have the best hand but wasn't sure and I figured raising was better than calling. I knew the 60 I was putting in on the turn was the last money going into the pot for me bc I was folding to a reraise or a river bet. I knew I was sunk when the button coldcalled the 60. The original bettor called and the turn caller mucked. The The river was the 10 /images/graemlins/club.gif to complete a running flush draw. It got checked through. First player showed Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif (yes for 3 bets preflop). The button showed K /images/graemlins/heart.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif for the winner. The more I think about it, despite the results I kinda like my turn raise. If the first bettor had a pair and a turned draw, my raise could potentially fold a weak queen behind me. But I admit it was close. I really appreciate the comments and welcome more discussion.

Thanks,
Jeff

[Philuva]

I have not read the results yet, but with that many callers, it appears that someone has a Q. I think this is probably a fold situation.

Although, if I did play on, I think a raise is in order. With the apparent passiveness of this table, it appears a turn raise followed by a river check might work well.

[Rushmore]

After an extensive amount of computer analysis and deeply existential contemplation, I have to say...

Fold here every time. You don't even have top pair, and there are players to act behind you.

Maybe I'm too tight, but it just seems like a gigantic rationalization to raise the turn here. I'll gladly muck 100% of the time, thankful that I didn't get trapped by an even bigger hand than actually won the pot.

I think many of us are so desperately seeking an edge, that we see one where it does not exist.

[Pot-A]

I think this is a fold. There are just too many people in the pot for you to be ahead, and even if you are you're still vulnerable to the flush on the river. In any case I don't see the Qx laying it down because of the flush draw.

I'd probably raise and check behind on the river if I were facing less than three opponents.