Albert Pujols

[Clarkmeister]

As a big-time Cardinal fan, I can't begin to say how excited I am about this guy's future. I just ordered an authentic Pujols jersey from mlb.com.

While he sits on #30 in his hit streak, I looked up his stats. Pretty amazing for a 23 year old.

2001: 37HR 130RBI .329AVG 1.013OPS
2002: 34HR 127RBI .314AVG .955OPS
2003: 34HR 108RBI .371AVG 1.128OPS

And he still has 35 games to go. Sitting on a 30 game hit streak, battling with Bonds for the MVP. Only 46 stikeouts this year. And 23 years old. Yikes.

The funny thing is, if McGwire hadn't gotten hurt 3 years ago, he might just now be finding his way to the show. Funny how things work out sometimes.

[Uston]

When I get the energy, I'll mess around on baseball-reference.com in an effort to prove my contention that Pujols is having the best three season start to a career in the history of baseball.

With all the games Bonds has missed this year, even a staunch Bonds supporter like me is supporting Pujols for MVP.

[andyfox]

Unless he totally collapses, Pujols will win the MVP award. Bond still has a higher on-base percentage and slugging percentage, but I wouldn't argue with Pujols being the MVP. Sheffield should get some consideration too.

Who do you think the competition is for best three years at the start of a career? Ted Williams comes to mind, and Joe Dimagggio, perhaps A Rod. Pretty good company.

[Uston]

I'm going to change my contention to "Other than Ted Williams, Pujols has had the best three season start to a career in baseball history".

Dimaggio and ARod aren't even close. If you consider Ruth's first three seasons with over 300 ABs (which you probably shouldn't), he's very close.

[Clarkmeister]

FWIW, Pujols vs Bonds this year:

Pujols: 34HR 108RBI .371AVG 1.128OPS
Bonds: 38HR 78RBI .341AVG 1.276OPS


Cardinal fan that I am, I'd still vote for Bonds. He *is* the Giants. Sucks for Albert that Barry is so dominant right now, or he'd be a shoe in for his 2nd MVP in his first 3 years as a big leaguer.

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/frown.giftwo words...

andruw jones...braves...gl /images/graemlins/shocked.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Clarkmeister]

Jones is sweet, but not even the best player on his own team as long as Sheffield is in a contract year.

[JTG51]

Pujols is a monster. Getting to see Pujols and Bonds is the only reasons I enjoy interleague play.

I heard a pretty amazing stat about his current hitting streak and Dimaggio. The last Cardinal to have a hitting streak this long was Rogers Hornsby, 80 or so years ago, and Pujols is barely half way to Dimaggio. When you think of all the great Cardinals that makes what Dimaggio did that much more impressive.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
The funny thing is, if McGwire hadn't gotten hurt 3 years ago, he might just now be finding his way to the show.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. The funny thing is saying his name. Pujols. Pujols. Pujols. Hehehe.

[JTG51]

Sorry, I'm still voting for Bonds. Without Pujols, the Cards are still a pretty good team. Without Bonds, the Giants are barely a major league club.

As you know, RBI are very misleading. Bonds has exactly 1 AB this year with runners on second and third. One AB and 15 BB. That's disgusting. Here's one more random Bonds stat (that has nothing to do with MVP voting but is amazing) that I just ran across. This season with the count 2-0 Bonds is hitting .538 and slugging 1.462. Wow.

You won't have to work very hard to prove that Pujols is having the best non Ted Williams start to a career ever. Isn't he the only guy in baseball history with 30+ HR, 100+ RBI, and 100+ R in his first 3 seasons?

[Glenn]

"As you know, RBI are very misleading. Bonds has exactly 1 AB this year with runners on second and third. One AB and 15 BB. That's disgusting. "

This is the same reason that Bonds' on-base percentage is so much higher though, so it is kind of a wash.

[Uston]

Don't get me wrong. I think Bonds is having, by far, the better season of the two. I'm just saying that if Barry ends up playing in only 125-130 games, his value goes way down in relation to Pujols'.

Isn't he the only guy in baseball history with 30+ HR, 100+ RBI, and 100+ R in his first 3 seasons?

Well, Williams fell short on the HRs one year and I can't think of anyone else who would be close.

[andyfox]

Dimaggio's first 3 years:

29 125 .323 .928
46 167 .346 1.085
32 140 .324 .967

Bill James gives him 25, 39 and 30 win shares. He hit 107 home runs and struck out 97 times in the 3 years.

James gives Pujols 29 and 32 wins shares his first two years, giving Dimaggio the edge for those two years.

A-Rod had 142 at bats in 1995, so he didn't qualify as a rookie in 1996. James gives him 34, 22 and 30 win shares for 1996-97-98.

Others of interest: (win shares first three years)

Johnny Mize: 26-34-28 total: 88
Arky Vaughn: 21-34-36 total: 91
Ted Williams: 32-30-42 total: 104
Stan Musial: 28-39-38 total: 105
(1942-44: he had 47 at bats [.426 batting average] in 1941)
Johnny Pesky: 28-34-25 total: 87
Jackie Robinson: 21-25-36 total: 82
Dick Allen: 41-33-35 total: 109
(1964-66: he had 24 at bats in 1963)
Tony Oliva: 27-33-28 total: 88
(1964-66: he had 16 at bats [.438 batting average] 1962-63)
Cal Ripken: 23-35-37 total: 95
(1982-84: he had 39 at bats in 1981)
Paul Waner: 28-36-34 total: 98
Lou Gehrig: 15-30-44 total: 89
Wally Berger: 26-31-26 total: 83

[andyfox]

The only other Cardinals with 30 game hitting streaks are (indeed) Hornsby (33 games in 1922) and Stan Musial (30 in 1950). Two pretty fair hitters.

BTW, Dom Dimaggio once had a 34 game hitting streak. Then again, so did Benito Santiago and George McQuinn, so go figure.

[andyfox]

I'll take Sheff, Chipper, Smoltz, Javy and Smoltz, all of them, over Andruw.

[andyfox]

Dimaggio had 29 home runs his rookie year, otherwise he makes it. He averaged 137 runs scored, 36 homre runs, 144 RBIs, and .332 his first 3 years.

Then he got better. He led the league in batting average the next two years (.381 and .352) and then had his hitting streak the following year.

[Sooga]

Yea I don't think anyone else has done it... though Frank Thomas (unless you count his first 191AB season), had .300/.420/.550/30HR/100R/100RBI/100BB for SIX of his first 7 full seasons, much like Ted Williams. Ted Williams's OBP's were way higher and he had better other numbers (doubles, etc), but obviously Ted Williams is one of a kind.

On a sorta unrelated topic, people are saying that Frank Thomas has fallen off and he's not a hall of famer anymore. Those people are nuts. Thomas has never had a 'bad' season. His lowest OPS for a full season has been .833, hardly horrible. 2001 was his only lost year, but otherwise, his hitting numbers are fantastic. He has a .930 OPS this year, easily in the AL top 10, but nobody's really noticed, since his batting average is way down since his heyday. The man has a .310/.429/.556 avg along with 400HR (should easily be 500+ by the time he's done) for his career. Anyone who doesn't think he is a hall of famer should be institutionalized. Ok, enough ranting /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[andyfox]

Williams hit only 23 home runs his second year.

Here are Williams hit and walk totals during his prime:

1941: 330 in 143 games
1942: 331 in 150 games
1946: 332 in 150 games
1947: 343 in 156 games
1948: 314 in 137 games
1949: 356 in 155 games

Not a bad offensive player . . . He led the league in on base percentage and slugging percentage every year. And he managed to help win a war in his spare time.

[andyfox]

That was during his prime. After that, all he did was average .344 from 1950-1958. While taking time off to help in another war.

[andyfox]

There was a day this year when Frank Thomas and Jeff Bagwell (both future HOFers, born on the exact same day, had the exact same number of lifetime home runs.

Sosa and Piazza were also born that year (1968). 1931 was a pretty good year (Mantle, Mays, Mathews, Banks) and so was 1934 (Aaron, Kaline, Clemente) but 1968 wasn't too bad either.

[Clarkmeister]

What's a win share? Normalized HR's?

[Uston]

Thanks, Andy. You even included Wally Berger, who is clearly one of the most overlooked players of the century. Also, the fact that Musial has more WS than Williams in those three years is shocking.

[Uston]

Agree about Thomas. In no way should he not be a mortal lock for the Hall. I think people have been overlooking him for the past several years mostly because he's been whining like a little bitch. His numbers have continued to be excellent.

[andyfox]

One guy I forgot was Eddie Matthews because I remembered he had a tough rookie year. But his win share totals for his 1st three years are 19-39-33 total: 91.

[andyfox]

According to James, a win share is, in essence, wins created. It takes his concept of runs created and moved it from runs to wins (actually each win share is worth a third of a win). He claims it's the most accurate way to rate and compare players. The math behind it is incredibly complicated. The explanation of how it works is 86 pages in James's book Win Shares, plus another 18 pages of "Whys and Wherefores."

[adios]

Someday though he'll be eligible for free agency and of course if his numbers hold up (this season is a tough act to follow) to the average performance he's had or better, he'll command monster dollars in the free agency market. The Cardinals have a great organization but we'll see if they pay him the bucks down the road. I mean why wouldn't he ask for ARod type money if he performs at this level?

[Clarkmeister]

Well, I doubt anyone will see Arod money for a long long time. That ship has sailed IMO.

But to answer your question, I am not worried at all. No one leaves St. Louis when they are wanted. In fact, not only do they not leave, they take less to stay (Rolen, Edmonds, McGwire). I'll be astounded if he plays for any other franchise in the next 10 years.

[adios]

If he continues to put up years like this on a consistent basis we'll be talking about Pujols kind of money /images/graemlins/smile.gif. IMO since he's a right handed hitter there's a real good chance the Cards keep him.

[andyfox]

Alfredo Griffin.

Take his 1981 season. Please. He hit .209. OBP of .243. Slugging percentage of .289. And stole 8 bases in just 20 attempts.

His punishment? He played every game, all 162, at shortstop for the same team (Toronto) in 1982. And again in 1983. He slugged a total of 5 home runs in those 324 games. Stole 18 more bases in just 38 attempts, giving him, for his career, 67 in 140 tries.

More evidence for the main argument of Moneyball: most baseball people don't know what they're doing.