A Newbie's Story -- and an object lesson for other newbies out there!

[Bokonon]

Howdy folks. I'm new here, and given that I'm going to be posting a bunch in the near future, I figured an introductory post was called for. And maybe other newbies can learn from my experience over the last couple of months . . .

So bear with me.

I never really played poker at all growing up. Once or twice in college, a little before that, and that's about it. But I've always loved the idea of being a Gambler. Taught myself how to count cards, played around with some horserace handicapping systems, etc. Appealed to the mathematician in me -- but I never really risked any real money, and I only dabbled here and there for short periods of time. But the desire was always there . . .

Then, no doubt like more than a few of you, I started catching the WSOP on the Travel Channel. Damn! I'd caught the WSOP here and there on ESPN2 over the last few years, but THIS was just so much better. And on every week!

Long story short, I decided that it might be fun to go to give it a shot online. Unlike horse racing, in which the rake is ~18% a game, the rake in poker seemed low enough that a good player could really make some cash. I started by playing for play money for a bit . . . and then figured that you know, maybe it wouldn't hurt to try this for a little real $$.

I was smart -- I didn't just go in throwing money around. I bought the Turbo Texas Hold 'em program, practiced on it for a few hours. Probably more importantly, I bought Lee Jones' book, had it in front of me while I was playing. I started at pokerroom.com with 50 bucks, on the $1/$2 tables. And damn if Mr. Jones wasn't on to something -- maybe 40 or 50 hours later, I was up $500! Woohoo!!!

Stars in my eyes, I went to PartyPoker. Played their $2/$4 tables. Then heard you could play two tables, and started doing THAT. I mean, there's not much to this, right? You only go in with the correct hands, you get out if you don't have pot-odds for a draw or top pair with decent kicker, and that's that. Not rocket science.

The money rolled in. I probably made an average of 4BB a table, maybe more. Over another 50 or 60 hours, I was up around $2000. That was around the beginning of July. At that point I started playing the NL tables and the shorthanded $5/$10 tables. Limit poker was getting a little dull, after all, and hey, it was clear that I was ready to move on! Sure, maybe some of that profit was luck, but obviously -- OBVIOUSLY -- a lot of it was skill.

I think maybe it was fourth of July weekend that I hit it big. Played two $5/$10 shorthanded tables at PartyPoker for about four or five hours, and damn if I wasn't in the Zone. I was very aggressive, and the Poker Gods rewarded me by giving me a kick-ass river card every time I needed it. After five hours went by, I was up to around +$3400. This was after just over 120 hours of play.

Hell yeah! What can I say? I had stars in my eyes. I'll spare you my thoughts about monthly winnings and how much I could clear and whether I could avoid paying taxes on it and what I could buy.

It suffices to say that I was Ten Feet Tall and Bulletproof.

. . .

. . .

. . .

Yeah, you know what happened next.

Over the rest of the 4th of July weekend, I lost everything I had made that weekend, plus maybe $200. Most of the losses were at the shorthanded tables that had been so damn good to me! What's up with that?! Also lost EVERYTHING I had made over at Pacific Poker, including my bonus . . . (Lord I hate that place. Had some very very weird runs there.)

So I took a few deep breaths, said to myself that this kind of thing happens . . . and kept going.

I would say that it took maybe a week-and-a-half for me to lose the next $1000. Most of the losses at this point were at Party. If I flopped top pair with good kicker, someone else had two pair. If I flopped two pair, someone else flopped a set. If I flopped a set, someone else had a straight or flush. If I had a straight or flush, then sure as hell someone doofus managed to get a full house.

AUUUUUUUGGGHHHHH! WHAT the hell was I doing WRONG?!

During this entire time I was massively panicked. I did everything -- I started playing high unsuited connectors (seems to work for the fish!), I threw money at the $10/$20 game (only takes a little luck to make back what I've lost!) . . . none of these horrible ideas worked!

I came here and looked around to find advice on starting hands for short-handed games. Found squat! Some nimrod said "Well, it depends who you're playing against." What kind of advice is THAT?! I mean, only way to learn what they play with is to call them to the river, and by the time I do that enough I'll be down another few hundred! Shees. Lee Jones never said that it was important to learn how to read opponents . . .

It goes without saying that at the end of a lot of those sessions I had what Phillips ("Zen and the Art of Poker") called the Death Wish. The "Take my money, please" state of mind in which you know you're going to lose anyway, so you might as well go out with a bang. I wasn't re-raising every hand with 72o, but . . . well, let's leave it at that /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

Took another week to grab another $400 from me. Down to +$750 now. I tightened up, I went back to having Jones in front of me, I got out of NL games . . . and it still didn't work. The luck was all bad, ALL bad. AUUUUGHH! Maybe those guys on the rgp list are right -- maybe the game is fixed to lure in players early, and then take their money after they're hooked!

And that's when I stopped, and stopped cold. I knew I had a problem.

No, not an Addiction to Gambling problem -- please. Nothing wrong with being addicted to it if you win /images/graemlins/smile.gif. My problem was that I was playing poker with an empty head. Was I trying to read opponents? Guess hole cards? Study hand histories? Study betting behavior? Um, no . . . I was on autopilot, and autopilot was dragging me down.

. . .

It's two weeks later, and I'm starting up again. But I'm changing a few things.

I'm keeping records. Before the extent of my record-keeping was how long I'd played and where I was in $$. A few player notes, but not much (and I only started that during the ride down). Now I'm trying to be much more anal, though I'm still a bit lost on how to set it all up.

I'm also trying to guess hole cards. Look at hand histories. Write down mistakes I've made so I don't make them again. Playing lower-limit tables until I'm sure I know what I'm doing. And ONE f'ing TABLE at a TIME, dammit!

I've only been playing poker for two months at this point . . . and it's time to realize that there might just be more for me to learn.

Anyway, that's my story. I apologize for its length. You may now commence posting comments such as

"You should have known that runs like that happen, dork -- both ways (up, and down)" and

"Unsuited connectors in a limit game? Are you on drugs?"

and so on . . . .

/images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Ulysses]

So, let's summarize:

You've...

...been playing two months.
...made $750.
...experienced the wild swings that come w/ shorthanded play.
...gotten experience playing a wide range of games and limits.
...figured out some things you need to learn.
...managed to pull yourself out of full-scale tilt without losing money (and even keeping some profits!).

Sounds like you've gotten a great poker education in just two months and have gone through a set of experiences much faster than most players. Sounds good to me.

Have fun.

[Cosimo]

I've seen many similar posts. I think the #1 reason why people bust out at poker is that they never understand probability, or that they don't believe that a poker player's standard deviation is really higher than 2-4BB per thirty hands, or that they've never bothered to run the numbers. I can't help with the first or the second, but here are some sobering figures.

Let's say that you are a good player, there's some swings in your game, and you play one table at a time. Your EV over 30 hands is 1BB, your SD is 15BB per 30 hands, and you play 60 hands an hour. Your expected standing (two standard deviations, 95.5% confidence) is:
* one hour: -40BB to +44BB
* four hours: -77BB to +93BB
* thirty-six hours: -182BB to +326BB
* one hundred hours: -224BB to +624BB
* 441 hours: 0 to +882BB

A busy week of after-hours play will be 36 hours, which is really a ton of time. That's hard to maintain if you have school, a job, and/or a social life. 100 hours a month is a more reasonable 23 hours a week. Given some time off here and there to read, go visit the 'rents, etc and it might take six months or more to work up to 441 hours. Note that there's still a 2% chance that you'll be behind after that 441 hours.

What if you still have holes in your game, and are only winning .5BB per 30 hands? This is much more common for beginning players. On the other hands, you play two tables at a time. EV per hour is still 2BB but your SD jumps up to 30BB/hr.
* one hour: -58BB to +62BB
* four hours: -112BB to +128BB
* thirty-six hours: -288BB to +432BB
* one hundred hours: -400BB to +800BB
* 900 hours: 0BB to +3600BB

A lower win-rate destroys the time that it will take you to be sure to break even; even doubling the number of hands played per hour still means that you will have to play for a FULL YEAR to stand a good chance of being ahead.

Don't be discouraged by any means! Just realize that it's going to take a long time to get into the long run. You will only win one out of every 15 hands. Your pots will vary from the blinds to huge monsters. Some tables, you'll be on a giant rush, banking 60BB or more withing 15 minutes (my biggest run to date was +63BB in three orbits). At other times, you'll go hours without winning A SINGLE HAND. This makes much more sense when you realize that the bit that is varying is the "win one hand out of every 15." You have to play a lot of hands for that to start settling down.

-Cosimo

[Mike Gallo]

I'm new here, and given that I'm going to be posting a bunch in the near future, I figured an introductory post was called for. And maybe other newbies can learn from my experience over the last couple of months

Thank you for the introduction what can you share with all of us not just the newbies?

Then, no doubt like more than a few of you, I started catching the WSOP on the Travel Channel. Damn! I'd caught the WSOP here and there on ESPN2 over the last few years, but THIS was just so much better. And on every week!

I have not watched a single episode.

I mean, there's not much to this, right? You only go in with the correct hands, you get out if you don't have pot-odds for a draw or top pair with decent kicker, and that's that. Not rocket science.

Please newbies, do not believe this. This thinkings draws the suckers back.

I had to stop reading the post. I saw where you lost it all. That should serve as the lesson.

I think you have a bigger problem than poker theory. I will leave you to figure that out.

Nice meeting you.

Michael

[Bokonon]

Well, I said it was an object lesson /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

Or does it have to all end unhappily to be an object lesson? Eh, semantics. Point is that while I learned my lesson fast enough to not lose it all, I wish I had learned it sooner! You're right, though. It was a wild ride, but it taught me a helluva lot. And wild rides that end up profitable -- even just a little -- are definitely preferable to those that don't . . .

[ QUOTE ]
So, let's summarize:

You've...

...been playing two months.
...made $750.
...experienced the wild swings that come w/ shorthanded play.
...gotten experience playing a wide range of games and limits.
...figured out some things you need to learn.
...managed to pull yourself out of full-scale tilt without losing money (and even keeping some profits!).

Sounds like you've gotten a great poker education in just two months and have gone through a set of experiences much faster than most players. Sounds good to me.

Have fun.



[/ QUOTE ]

[Bokonon]

You must be a blast at parties, Michael.

I'm not sure what you want the newbies to "not believe". Can't tell whether or not you picked up on my sarcasm . . . obviously, a great deal of the game is having top pair with good kicker, and having pot-odds for your draws and flushes. Point is that there's a whole lot more. When I was on autopilot, I didn't see it . . . but I'm seeing it now.

And no doubt you're right that I've got many, many problems that have nothing to do with poker theory /images/graemlins/tongue.gif.

[ QUOTE ]

I mean, there's not much to this, right? You only go in with the correct hands, you get out if you don't have pot-odds for a draw or top pair with decent kicker, and that's that. Not rocket science.

Please newbies, do not believe this. This thinkings draws the suckers back.


[/ QUOTE ]

[Redleg7]

That was a very entertaining post (form a newbies perspective)

I'm in the same boat, but without the wild ride. Thanks for the lessons learned. I've taken a more methodical approach to "training" (20 years in the Army can do that to you). I lost my initial investment at Party (no biggie $25 tuition and my own lessons learned). I hit the books, hit the sim (Turbo), then hit the tables again this time at Party. So far I've been doing ok, I made back my initial investment, plus $150 playing the .5/1 tables. I'm encouraged but have noticed some serious shortcomings in my game offest by the even greater shortcomings of some of my opponents at Party, so I'm in another playing freeze until I can get a handle on the situation.

My next step is to post some hands on this board with the goal of improving.

Part of my motivation was to make some pocket change to fund my other hobbies, but that has changed in the last few weeks of playing (I've only been at it since 1 AUG). My motivation now is to become a strong player. I've been lurking on this forum trying to get a feel for the tone, as well as the etiquette, hopefully I won't offend anyone with my questionable plays /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

Anyway's thanks for the entertaining post, hope to see you on the Party tables (Steel_Rain7, although I plan to stay at .5/1 until I feel comfortable moving up, not to mention my bankroll requirements).

The biggest lesson I've learned is that it pays to be disciplined.

[Mike Gallo]

You must be a blast at parties, Michael.

Funny you should say that.

Can't tell whether or not you picked up on my sarcasm

I did not. I thought you posted in a bragging look at me I can beat the game after reading a book manner. I have read many posts from players like that. Glad to see your post contained more than that.

After I read what happened, I kind of figured your post had a sarcastic tone to it. Good to read that you got yourself in check and realized what it takes to play winning poker.


Point is that there's a whole lot more. When I was on autopilot, I didn't see it . . . but I'm seeing it now.

Excellent observation and adjustment.

And no doubt you're right that I've got many, many problems that have nothing to do with poker theory .

Amen to that.

Good luck to you, post some hands and take it from there.

Michael

[MaxPower]

Hey Bokonon,

Great screen name. I wish I had thought of it myself. Just remember that 2+2 is a Granfalloon, not a Karass.

Good post. What are the lessons you learned from this? If you could list 4 or 5 things, I think it would be helpful, For instance, one thing you should have learned is that you shouldn't sit down in a game unless you are prepared for it. Lee Jones' book does not prepare you to play shorthanded or no-lmit.

[Wake up CALL]

[ QUOTE ]

Just remember that 2+2 is a Granfalloon, not a Karass.



[/ QUOTE ]

If you believe this to be true you either misunderstand 2+2 or need to read Cat's Cradle again.

[MaxPower]

I do need to read it again. Its been about 10 years, so maybe I'm a little rusty on Bokononism.

[Dru Lee Parsec]

Hey Bokonon, How ya doin? We've played at the same table at PokerRoom several times.

I just had a pretty decent lesson (lost $100 in 15 minutes). However, I wouldn't say that I was getting bad beats, I just played really poorly. I was playing too many low hands, chasing too many pots, etc.

Looking back at my play I realized that I had just come off of a nice rush of cards and was feeling invincible. That made me play WAY looser than I should have. My solution? Drop back down to the $1-$2 tables, play like I'm suppose to (Playing an 8c 3c on the button? What was I thinking??). Remember that I can't bluff in low limit. If everyone checks to the river and then someone bet they arn't trying to steal the pot, they actually caught the card! You know, those kinds of things.

So I'm back at the $1-$2 and grinding away winning $15-$30 an hour playing as tight as I know how and pushing the good hands aggresivly. I'll be back up to the $500 range pretty soon.

Oh, one other thing I found. When I came home and only had 15 or 20 minutes to play I lost money consistently. I wasn't giving myself enough time to let the odds come my way. I was just getting trash cards and the blinds were eating me up. Then came the mistake: Thinking "I havn't played one hand in the last 40. There's a K 10 offsuit, let's play it!" If the cards don't come then they done come. Become a folding machine.

Remember what Lee Jones says: "Look for a way to get out of the hand".

[GrinningBuddha]

Good post Bokonon. As Ulysses said, you've got a lot going for you at this point. Just imagine the outcome if you had hit the downswing first. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

This board has a lot to offer; I invite you to check out the playing diaries that some of us have put up. I've found it offers people a chance to see what is happening to other 2+2ers on a regular basis, and there are several opportunities to discuss troublesome, odd, or just plain stupid hands. Confession is good for the soul, ya know.

davidross and I have journals in The Hold'em general section (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/postlist.php?Cat=&Board=holdem) and Jason Holdem also posts in the Internet section (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/postlist.php?Cat=&Board=inet) . david and Jason are on a brief hiatus, and I'm only playing .50/1.00 for now, but come pay us a visit and follow along. Maybe we can teach each other something along the way...

Good luck!