Value Bet Jacks?

[Noo Yawk]

Semi-tight, semi-aggressive 20-40. I open raise in middle position with red Jacks. A good, but not great player calls from the button. The blind both drop. Heads up.

The Flop: Ac-8d-9d

I bet, he raises, I call. He may be ahead, he may be on a draw. He'd play either one the same, and look for a free card with a draw.

The Turn: 4c(Ac-8d-9d)

I bet out(no free cards here), he just calls.

The River is a 2s (4c-Ac-8d-9d)

Is it worth betting?

[Sooga]

I don't think so... if you've put him on a draw, how is he gonna call a river bet? If he's on a small ace, he'll call you for sure. Check and hope he bluffs at it if he is indeed on a draw.

[cero_z]

Noo Yawk,
Definitely don't bet. He'll call with a small ace, raise with anything better, and fold anything worse, none of which you want him to do (except folding KK or QQ--extremely unlikely holdings). I expect to see a small or medium ace.

[Rick Nebiolo]

Noo Yawk,

A "good" player might play the draw this way but he also would tend to play the weak ace the same way too. There aren't too many other hands that fit this pattern.

If you bet the river the weak ace calls (since he called the turn) and the missed draw gives it up (except perhaps a king high flush draw).

If you check the river you call all bets. Some of those will be by busted draws that wouldn't have called your bet. Some will be by aces that would have called you anyway. But sometimes the weak ace will check behind.

This appears to be a clear check IMO.

~ Rick

[elysium]

hi noo
you missed a check-raise. you must bet the river. he's got an 8 or 9.

[cero_z]

Noo Yawk,
I misread the initial post, and was thinking he'd acted first, betting the turn and then checking the river. I would bet just about every time on the river, given what actually happened. Sorry about that dumb-ass post earlier.

[elysium]

hi noo
you must bet.

[Diplomat]

Check the river and it's not close. Rick explained why.

-Diplomat

[Noo Yawk]

Rick, as usual, nailed it perfectly. I was a bit suprised to see a few people say to bet.

[turnipmonster]

what do y'all think about 3-betting the flop here? (provided you are going to lead the turn and call the river if you have to). seems to me like a weak ace will check the river, thus saving a small bet. this move works great when you have position, but what about out of position? thoughts?

--turnipmonster