Going to war headsup--what's its EV?

[mikelow]

Rather than lose both preseason bets (thanks, Wildbill), I played a few hours after work at the Hustler's 25-50 game (I was able to get a seat this time).

After catching nothing for a while, I'm dealt A /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/diamond.gif in the cutoff. Apparent maniac raises in EP, folded to me and I threebet. Heads-up.

Flop is:

Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

He bets, I raise, he three-bets, and I four-bet. He now five-bets. Anyone for another raise? Or should I call him down? Even though he's a maniac, he could have a set or J9 suited.

I just called. Results will follow later.

[Coilean]

Maniac or not, you are likely drawing, so I think you just call. With you having the trump ace, he can't be all that thrilled with any draws he might have given all those spades out there, so I think he has a hand that beats 1 pair. Maybe he's in love with his KsQx or KsJx, but it seems he could just as easily have something like QT J9 T8 88 or a made flush.

[elysium]

hi mike
i think you can call the 3 bet on the flop. the problem here is that this is a maniac. if you 4 bet, he may 5 bet. against an average opponent, a 5 bet tells you something, so you get info in exchange for risking your read. what i mean by that is, when an opponent 5 bets, any read you may have had goes out the window. since you're a fairly good hand reader, you don't want your read messed around with a lot. now if joe average 5 bets you, well there goes your read. now you are forced to attach greater importance to his action, rather than your read. he bet your read away from you. but you don't mind that so much if an average player does that because your read wasn't any good to start with. you gained info telling you that your read was no good. and now you KNOW he doesn't have the hand you had him on. yea, it's an extra bet or two, but look at the info you got in exchange.

no problem there. against an average opponent, you can risk getting 5 betted because you immediately gain something in return. valuable reliable info that your read was no good. that's worth at least 1 small bet, maybe 2 small bets.

the problem is that when the maniac 5 bets, your read also goes out the window. only the info he's giving you isn't reliable. he may be 5 betting with the hand you put him on. you gain absolutely nothing in exchange for calling his 5 bet, nothing. and you lose your read because whatever your read was is now worthless. you are forced to attach greater importance to the maniacs 5 bet than your own good read. and your action will now be dictated to you by his action.

but if you don't allow him to 5 bet, you save your read. it may cost you 1 or 2 small bets that don't make it into the pot, but just as in the first case with the average opponent, it's worth it because against the maniac, your read is valuable. you gain nothing by 4 betting unless he calls. if he slips up and 5 bets, which he is liable to do, you lose and he wins. he takes control of the hand. and if you look further into the hand, to say the river for example, you'll see that your read will give you back a lot more than just 1 or 2 small bets.

so never risk 4 betting a maniac on the flop. there is nothing to gain but a lot to lose.

what if he calls your 4 bet? he won't. because you're not going to risk his 5 betting you. so there won't be a 4 bet.

what if you have the nuts? then set him up for a turn check-raise.

[mikelow]

Sorry for the delay, but Vegas thunderstorms are so much fun!

To recap, the flop was:

Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif.

Turn was:

[Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif]6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.

Maniac bet, and I called.

River was:

[Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif10 /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif] 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif.

Maniac checked! So his two pair got counterfeited. I bet, and he folded in disgust. I was lucky, but I think perhaps
elysium is correct. If I get my read, perhaps I have a turn raise with all the outs I had. I think the maniac had QT.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the maniac had QT.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't imagine a maniac would fold top two for one bet on the river here.

[mikelow]

Yes, the maniac would have won with QT. So his only hand could have been T8--a maniac's hand.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, the maniac would have won with QT. So his only hand could have been T8--a maniac's hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he were a real maniac he'd have something like KsTh at best and was disgusted that his big flush didn't make it on the turn or river.