Misguided, stupid or unlucky

[Magician]

OK so I tried to play the men and not the cards.

Down to 1,900 chips in an FPP super-satellite (there would be another round if you survive Round One).

Had 2,500 earlier, tried to steal with K7o from MP (raise to 3 BB, $100/$200 rolling antes round), one big stack moved in, another big stack thought for a long time then mucked, I mucked. Two guys tell each other they had QQ and TT respectively.

I had managed to steal a lot earlier in the tournament at another table but upon being moved to this table it had so many big stacks compared to mine (I arrived with about 4K when that was the average and there must have been at least 3 stacks of at least 8K each and most to my left). Would've had more than 4K but got Aces cracked by an underpair (all-in pre-flop, that's another story) - had 4K crippled down to 1,500, and came back to 4K again.

Anyway at this table people were raising a lot around me and I didn't catch a hand. A couple of times I tried to make a play, but a big stack to my left would call me, I'd miss the flop, I was afraid to bluff bigger stacks who could easily set me all in for the rest of my chips (and I had nothing) and as a result I found myself down to 2,500.

Anyway, now I find myself with Q5o in UTG + 1 (a perfectly "average" hand which wins 50.1 percent of the time against a random hand). Blinds moved up to 200/400 with rolling antes. If I let the blinds hit me I am down to 1,300 chips. I decide to move in and pray that either there is no caller or if there is a caller that I am not a big dog.

Since arriving at the table I hadn't played many hands and I was hoping for at least some respect.

UTG + 2 moves in. Everyone mucks.

UTG + 2 turns over KK.

No help and I'm out.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Here's a big part of the problem.

You're playing online. You can't play the man, and it's much harder to play the situation, because you're missing so much of the information about the situation that is available live.

Secondly, why are you afraid to bet the flop after you miss when you were only called preflop? Remember, if you don't start with a pair, you're only going to flop a pair about 1/3 of the time. And if you do start with a small-to-medium pair (and you don't expect them to have a big pair since they didn't reraise), you'll be facing 1-3 overcards most of the time.

Given this, it is quite likely that your opponents aren't going to be very happy when you bet into them on the flop. Yes, it's true, they could have been slowplaying a big pair. And yes, it's true, they could've hit the flop good enough that they won't go away. But isn't it even more likely that they missed the flop, and will fold if you make a big bet?

The main reason your cards matter at all is the better they are, the more outs you will have when a situation like this backfires and you get called. If you start with AJ, you're more likely to have an overcard or two to their hand at this point, and thus more chance of getting lucky after your bluff fails. Same thing with suited cards and connected cards. They flop more good draws than unsuited and unconnected cards, and thus make it more possible you have some outs if the bluff fails.

Here's the good part about being online. You can talk to yourself. Before it's your turn to act, ask yourself who's going to call if you raise, and with what kinds of cards. Next, ask yourself, how do I think they will play postflop? Will they bluff or semi-bluff, or will they play straightforwardly? If I check to them, will they take that as a sign of weakness, or as a trap? If they check to me, is it a trap or a sign of weakness? Etc. Speak out loud as you go through this analysis.

Once you ask yourself the right questions, the smart play will usually be pretty obvious. When it's not so obvious, it is often a toss-up, and the major alternate plays are all close enough in EV for it not to be that critical which one you pick.

But, you're going to be wrong a LOT. Even more so online, as you just can't judge the player's attitude at the moment.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Magician]

Looks like I have so much more to learn!

What types of notes should I be taking on my opponents?

Right now it's mostly starting hands (when it reaches a showdown I try to take note of what they went in with and if say they limped in with aces), also if they will defend their blind - I notice some guys will move in on a stealer, others will flat call to defend.

What scares me is when I raise pre-flop, get called, and I completely have nothing.

Sometimes when they check I can feel they are weak, bet out, and take it down. But what really gets me suspicious is when somebody will check so FAST.

Like what happened earlier today - one guy checked so FAST, it meant he didn't even think of bluffing or something. He must have had a monster. And so I checked along, then on the turn he bets me my remaining (much shorter than his) stack.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

What scares me is when I raise pre-flop, get called, and I completely have nothing.

Then you ask yourself, "with what hands will this person call a preflop raise?" (from observing play, this is something you should note). If the answer is pairs like TT, JJ, QQ bet at any flop that has an A or a K. Really, your opponent doesn't know you have 62o, he now is afraid you have AK (unless of course he calls or raises). Online it's more of a guessing game, but you do have to take some chances to win.

Getting reraised when you try to steal with nothing is easy, because you just fold. One reason that a pure steal is a good play early is that it gives you the chance to show your opponents that you *can* lay down a hand to a reraise, which may help you later on when you have the goods.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

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Looks like I have so much more to learn!

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Don't we all.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)