Stealing - relative to stack size

[Magician]

I find it's easier for me to go for the steal when I've got a big stack and that I am more reluctant to do it when my stack is short.

At which point (initial bet relative to stack) - should I be more reluctant to steal and at which point should I steal more?

Does it make sense to start stealing from the 10/20 round?

Sure the blinds aren't much but you aren't risking much either (just be careful post-flop of course so you don't lose your whole stack then and there).

In a way it's like baseball or pro football - the stealing game is like trying to establish the running game in either sport?

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If your stack is so short that they're getting good odds on the call, then expect them to call. And that means you only "steal" with a hand that can fare well enough against a call. If I have KJo on the button and 3xBB in my stack, I'm going to raise. While I don't expect to steal the blinds very often, I do expect to have the best hand pretty often instead. Basically, if they're too tight, you get to steal a lot; and if they're too loose, you'll have the best of it; and in some cases there is no middle ground where you're ever getting the worst of it. That is, no matter what range of hands they select to call with, you're getting the best of it. All they can do is minimize your edge (or read you, and call only when they should, but that's beyond the scope of this discussion).

As for early stealing, better be careful. Only do it with hands that you can play well postflop. While it's true that raising to T60 with KJ and getting reraised off the pot is only going to cost you T60, if you get called and flop top pair you could lose a whole lot more. You're better off raising with hands you figure to be the best, OR hands that will help you outplay the opposition postflop. Good examples are small pairs, suited connectors, and suited one-gappers. I'd rather "steal-raise" early with 9h7h rather than KhJd.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Magician]

Wouldn't you prefer to limp in with pocket pairs and suited connectors?

My thinking is I steal with junk and limp in with hands that offer me good implied odds.

Of course, I won't be telling my opponents this.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Wouldn't you prefer to limp in with pocket pairs and suited connectors?

Depends on position and stack size relative to the blinds. I'm not going to limp with 55 first in from the cutoff at any level, and I'm probably not going to limp in EP with 76s unless the blinds are small.

[Magician]

So with 55 in cutoff and first in you'd raise even if the blinds are tiny?

Why not just limp in, hope for a set?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

From the cutoff, first-in, whether this is a NLHE tournament or a limit cash game, if I am not going to fold, I raise 99.9% (never say never) of the time with any playable hand.

Sure if I hit my set I *might* get more chips, but by just calling, I let a lot of 2-overcard cheese like 96o see the flop for free.

[Magician]

OK but to me it seems like you are increasing your cost.

Say you raise, and the flop has 2 or 3 overcards.

Say only the BB called and he bets out on the flop.

Do you value the blinds that much more?

My intuition is - it depends on how big the blinds are relative to the stacks. If the blinds are tiny, just call - so what if they see the flop free? But if the blinds are big enough, raise.

This also seems to me like a good opportunity to make a mini-raise pre-flop especially if you do the same thing with AA or KK. It sets them up for future hands.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Cost is irrelevant. The issue is EV.

If your EV goes up by raising, you should raise. Yes, it will cost you more when you lose, but it will win you more when you win. It will cause your opponents to tend to play their hands in certain ways, and if you know this you can take advantage of it.

Most importantly, if you limp in, they may bet the flop whether they hit or not, and now you've lost 1 BB. If you raise, they will more often check-and-fold when they miss, and you win 3+ BBs instead. The issue is the relative occurrence of each of these scenarios.

IME, raising when first in from late position has higher EV than limping in, or mini-raising.

In fact, I HATE mini-raising, and believe that it is almost always a mistake.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Greg (FossilMan)]

You shouldn't be stealing with junk unless the remaining players are going to be so tight that it's correct to steal with any two cards. What you want to steal with are semi-junk hands that can flop big hands and/or big draws. That way, if they just call with JT, they think they've got you crushed on the JT8 flop, not knowing you're holding 97.

It all depends upon what they've seen you do already, how often they think you'll do it, or if they don't know you, what they think is the right way to play. When I crack somebody with a hand like 97, even though 95% of the money went in when I was a huge favorite, they still shake their heads and whine about how the fish always get lucky against them.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Magician]

What kind of hands do you raise from in EP?

If you aren't comfortable giving it away publicly, at least private message me.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

It depends. Almost anything if the situation is right. But, as you would expect, I play a lot more hands from late position than from early.

In all your posts I see a strong tendency for you to focus on the cards. That is typical of newer players. You will eventually learn (or not, some never do) that the situation is the first thing to look at, and THEN the cards. It is no just how strong your cards are, or how often they will hit the flop, but just as importantly, how strong are your opponent's cards, how often will they hit the flop, and how will they play those cards as the hand develops? If you know the anwer to those questions, especially in a big bet format (cash game or tourney), your cards become of much less importance.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Magician]

Greg,

That's fine but when I try to play the situation I run into people who have QQ, KK etc.

And there's no effective defense against that is there?

Sigh.

What I have trouble with is when I am a medium or slightly small stack - usually after most of the players have been eliminated and it's down to the last 20-30% of the field.

How can I make plays when a bigger stack can easily re-raise me or flat call then bully me on the flop?

When I make a stand, boom turns out they have me beat.

Am I just unlucky?

[Greg (FossilMan)]

You're either unlucky, or you're doing a poor job of reading the situation. Or both.

One thing I will say. If you read them for folding almost anything, and they come back at you, they're not bullying you, they've got the goods (or, again, you're reading the situation really poorly).

If you read them for calling loosely, and you've got a decent hand (e.g., KQ), don't let them bully you. Take them on. Even more so if you've committed a lot of your chips.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Magician]

Greg,

If they have a stack of 12K and mine is 3K, and I try a steal, and they flat call, and I miss the flop, and I'm checked to:

It becomes tough, doesn't it?

If I bet, they might have hit and are trapping me and it doesn't cost much for them to call and see a showdown if they are not sure.

If I check along, I could be ahead even though I've missed the flop and am giving free cards away.

Also say I check along - I miss on the turn too, then I'm bet at for the rest of my stack.

Seems there's not much you can do then.

Or similarly I go for a steal, get called, and the 12K stack bets out at me on the flop - not small, not big, just 60% of the pot but costly enough for me and I've completedly missed the flop.

I normally muck - hard to try and bluff those big stacks when it wouldn't cost them much more to call (relative to their stack.

[Magician]

Greg,

I thought you mentioned earlier that you wouldn't steal with pure junk.

What are possible stealing hands for you? How low would you go?

Would J9o be a steal hand? J8o? 54s?

64s? 75s? 75o? A2o? K40?

What to you is pure junk and what is playable as a steal hand?

Obviously you can move in with 72o in the right situation but there must be some guideline as to what has some reasonable chance of flopping big (apart from the obvious pairs and zero gap suited connectors).

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Yes, sometimes the right thing IS hard to do.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[BuffaloSoldier]

Magician-

It sounds to me from your posts that you are having a hard time walking away from failed steal attempts. Lets say that you raise 4X big blind and are called. If you are checked to, its ok to check as well. If they bet and you can't call, then don't. Greg is right... if you read the situation correctly and steal at the right times, then more often than not (hopefully more than 4:1 steal-to-throw away ratio) when you make a 4X BB steal, you will profit. If you cant steal and miss the flop, it is sometimes better to love and fight another day. If 4XBB will cripple your stack, then go all-in. But I wouldn't throw all my chips in on a mediocre hand.

[Magician]

Tried it in a tournament and it seemed to work.

In a cash game, I got killed as people are much tighter.

Thoughts and experiences please?

[Shaun]

In a live game I raise with just about everything pre-flop- when I have position. By everything I mean any pair, suited connectors 45 and up, etc etc. Of course sometimes this is useless, but against tight players it works wonders. Online, I would suggest a mix of pre-flop raises as well. With small to medium pairs you can steal a lot of pots when the flop misses your one or two opponents, and when you do hit the set or hit a flop of 456 when you have 77, etc, you will often win a lot of cash. Once everyone gets used to your "wild" play, you will get paid off more when you hit a strong hand. I actually think people are looser in live games, but then again I have proven to myself lately that tournaments are not my game.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I play PLH pretty often at Foxwoods.

You don't EVEN want to know how I play. If you did, I don't think I could describe it. Let's just say I'm known as the resident maniac, yet I book a win a large majority ofthe time. Go figure.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)