Generic River Situation (Tournaments or Cash)

[Magician]

NLHE:

You've raised pre-flop, were called, bet the flop, were called, bet the turn, were called, and now you're convinced your opponent has missed his draw.

What to do on the river?

Check hoping that he bluffs, bet small enough that he HAS to call or bet about half the pot?

[Guy McSucker]

If he's missed his draw, will he call any bet? Seems unlikely. Perhaps he had a nut flush draw and might call a small bet with his ace-high on the off chance that you were also betting a draw. But, usually, a player with a missed draw will not call, and it's also rare for them to raise a bet as a bluff since it's so dangerous to raise someone who has been betting throughout the deal.

However, it's not that rare for a busted draw to decide to bluff if you suddenly check the river.

So most players will bet more often than they will call with a losing hand in this situation, and the best play is therefore:

Check-call against most players. This also has the advantage of giving you a chance to see his cards, whereas if he folds you don't get that chance.

(Note for online play: on most sites, if it goes check-check and you win, his cards will be mucked but the hand history will reveal them to you. This can be quite valuable.)

Guy.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If you're convinced he missed, and you can beat any drawing hand he could hold, there is only one reason to bet. And that's because he's going to bluff-raise your bet, and you'll win even more than if you check-call a bluff.

Don't bet small, again unless you're doing it to induce a bluff that you WILL call. It's going to suck when he senses weakness from your small bet, goes all-in, and you then realize you're not able to call.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Magician]

Assume you are happy to call if he moves in over the top of you.

Is it better to check to induce a bluff or mini-bet?

For you, how big is a mini-bet? For me it's about 20% of the pot.

What size is likely to signal weakness and induce a bluff?

[Greg (FossilMan)]

No set answer. Some folks will bluff more after the check, others after the mini-bet. Some would bluff more after a real-sized bet, as the other two smell funny to them.

You just have to learn the tendencies of your opponents. Your recent past will matter a lot. Have they seen you bluffing or value-betting the river anytime recently? Which was it, and what was your betting pattern? You should figure they will read you to be doing the same more often than they expect you to be changing your stripes. Have you ever made a mini-bet into them before, or into somebody else this session? What did you have? Etc.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)