Getting there with the wrong card

[Ulysses]

$15-30 game. Relatively passive and very loose pre-flop, but VERY aggressive post flop. Lots of flops and turns are capped. People are very aggressive w/ draws.

I limp UTG w/ black 44. 7 of us see the flop.

Flop 2c Jd 8d

SB and BB check. I contemplate taking a stab, but think better of it and check. Everyone else, including a couple of very aggressive players, check. WTF?

Turn (2c Jd 8d) 4d

Well, I got there. SB and BB check. I'm pretty sure one of the aggressive players in late position will take a stab at this, so I check. As expected, LP bets. BB, a player I haven't played with before who I've seen make a couple of moves in this game, raises. I 3-bet.

How'd I do?

[elysium]

hi ulysses
good post. played perfectly. there is a little room to consider calling because your holding is hidden and the field looks weak, allowing your odds to improve by getting the over-calls, you may be against the flush so call and try to fill, etc.; but clearly that would be absolutely wrong. no matter how you look at this, it's a must 3-bet. the double coordinated board mandates that you charge the draws the maximum. and no matter what you do, you will still be better than the 3 or 4 to 1.

if you had the possible completed flush on board without the straight draw, calling makes more sense. if your call closed the action in this case, calling can be more reasonable. but when you consider that you must call the river so you'll likely be betting out on the river, you must represent the A high flush now. if you get 4 bet, then check-call the river.

[Clarkmeister]

I like it a lot unless you have several players behind you that for whatever reason you suspect will call 2 cold and not 3.

[Mike Gallo]

You did well. Hopefully you filled and dragged the pot.


Michael

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I like it a lot unless you have several players behind you that for whatever reason you suspect will call 2 cold and not 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

If lone Ad or Kd are going to call 2 cold, they'll call 3. Ad will almost definitely call if he's out there.

[Ulysses]

I really didn't think anyone had a flush draw in this hand when the flop got checked around. Nobody in late position had a pair or any kind of straight draw either.

On the turn, I think anyone w/ a reasonable diamond is going to call one bet if I bet out and I think it's near impossible for it to get checked around twice.

When LP bets the turn, I put him on his most likely hand, nothing. BB is decent enough to make that read and could be raising w/ any pair. I suspect he had a weak Jack, probably with a diamond. There's a good chance I'm in the lead here and if that's the case, I definitely don't want to let these guys draw out on me for cheap.

Anyway, LP insta-folded to my 3-bet. BB thought about it very briefly then folded as well.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
You did well. Hopefully you filled and dragged the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmm... If I thought I needed to fill, I'd probably just cold-call here. Did you think there was a good chance I was behind?

[Mike Gallo]

Hmmmm... If I thought I needed to fill, I'd probably just cold-call here. Did you think there was a good chance I was behind?

Nahhhh..I knew your hand was good /images/graemlins/cool.gif


Michael

[Ulysses]

Well, in addition to being right about my hand being good, you were also right about what would have happened on the river. Had anyone called (or 4-bet), given the way I was running that session, I'd say there was a 50% chance I'd fill up on the river and a 50% chance I'd make quads.

[Hat Trick]

The only thing I would have worried about would have been if someone else was planning on a check-raise on the flop with a high diamond draw and couldn't because no one opened. Unlikely but possible. Also, if it was capped back to me on the turn I would have to call and check/fold to a bet on the river if I didn't fill up. Looks like your play worked out quite well though, good hand.

[skp]

I could be wrong but what I think Clark means is that you may want to just call to let guys behind you who are drawing dead to also call i.e. if there are guys behind you who may be willing to call 2 cold with a hapless hand but not three cold.

Since the chances of that happening are slim (i.e. guys coldcalling two when drawing dead but not 3 cold and you being able to know this with a reasonable degree of certainty), this reason for calling will not usually be present. Therefore, Clark likes the raise. I do too.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
The only thing I would have worried about would have been if someone else was planning on a check-raise on the flop with a high diamond draw and couldn't because no one opened. Unlikely but possible.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. But that would mean it was followed up by another check on the turn in this case. After it got checked around, I think a made flush is likely to be too worried about that happening again (in reality that's highly unlikely) and would probably just bet out.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if it was capped back to me on the turn I would have to call and check/fold to a bet on the river if I didn't fill up. Looks like your play worked out quite well though, good hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't remember the last time I folded a set for one bet on the river, but I probably would in this case if re-raised on the turn.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I could be wrong but what I think Clark means is that you may want to just call to let guys behind you who are drawing dead to also call i.e. if there are guys behind you who may be willing to call 2 cold with a hapless hand but not three cold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aha. Yes, I think you're probably right. I wasn't really considering that. In this game, I think the only cold-callers of 2 would be guys drawing live. And if there's a Jack in there (unlikely) willing to call 2, he'll call 3 as well.

[ QUOTE ]
Therefore, Clark likes the raise. I do too.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cool.

There's one more benefit to the 3-bet that I didn't mention in my initial results post. If LP is in there with a baby flush (not unlikely to limp w/ something like 3d5d in this game), there's a good chance he'll lay it down to a turn checkraise followed by a turn 3-bet. I don't think that's what happened here, but it's definitely a possibility, as everyone put me on the obvious nut (or very close to it) flush.

[Clarkmeister]

You got my drift.

Basically I was thinking along the lines of: "I'm 95% certain I have the best hand and there's already likely at least one diamond along for the ride. So how can I milk the most money out of this situation."

If I don't think I can entice some crappy middle pair or gutshot to come along for 2 bets, I'm definitely 3 betting and getting what I can from the 2 guys already involved. But its worth considering the chance of getting bets not only on this street, but also on the river. His coldcall would look an awful lot like a stiff Ad, and he may induce a bluff or a very weak call on the river.