What's a good card

[Louie Landale]

Got a pair of Qs and raised and 6 of us took the flop. Flop was 993, I bet and got 4 calls. I wasn't too worried since this is a pretty good game. Turn was a 3 (9-9-3-3), I bet and got 2 calls. Its unlikely they are slow-playing but maybe they will.

A Q would be the best river card. Which rank would be the next best?

- Louie

[Homer]

best ---> worst

9 ---> 3 ---> 2-J (not including 3 or 9) ---> K-A

-- Homer

[Allan]

How can the case 3 be good for your hand?

Allan

[Homer]

A 9 is clearly the best card because if you were ahead you stay ahead and if you were behind to someone with trip 3's you surpass them. A 3 is next best because it doesn't change your hand value relative to that of your opponents, and it makes it more likely that you will get paid off by opponents hoping to chop by playing the board. 2-J, then K, then A are the next worse cards since there is an increasingly likely chance that your hand, if previously ahead, has just been surpassed.

Essentially, no card other than a 9 improves your hand, so it is obviously the best. Next, look at what cards are least likely to hurt your hand....

-- Homer

[rayrns]

I believe a 3 would be best. If anyone held a set of 3's at this point, they would have the full house. They would not let anyone draw cheap even if it means "telling" their hand. Followed by the 9 and then a 2.

[Homer]

Why do you think a 3 is better than a 9?

A 9 does not allow another hand to surpass yours (if you were ahead) and allows you to surpass someone with trip 3's (since they will now be playing the board). Also, you are likely to get calls on the river (and maybe even a raise) from pocket pairs > 33.

A 3, like a 9, does not allow another hand to surpass yours. However, it does nothing to improve your hand, whereas a 9 has to potential for your hand to surpass someone elses. Also, there is less of a chance to get action on the river from a hand worse than yours, since your opponents will be fearing you having a third 9.

Comments?

-- Homer

[Wake up CALL]

[ QUOTE ]
Why do you think a 3 is better than a 9?

A 9 does not allow another hand to surpass yours (if you were ahead) and allows you to surpass someone with trip 3's (since they will now be playing the board). Also, you are likely to get calls on the river (and maybe even a raise) from pocket pairs > 33.

A 3, like a 9, does not allow another hand to surpass yours. However, it does nothing to improve your hand, whereas a 9 has to potential for your hand to surpass someone elses. Also, there is less of a chance to get action on the river from a hand worse than yours, since your opponents will be fearing you having a third 9.

Comments?

-- Homer

[/ QUOTE ]

I am not disagreeing that a 3 is a good river card Homer but it does allow another hand to surpass your pocket queens (Quads). However it also induces river calls from smaller pocket pairs (deuces thru jacks) that your hand still beats.

[Allan]

Oops I read the board wrong. I thought there were 3 treys out and you were saying the case trey on the river would be good for your hand. I knew I was missing something. Thanks


Allan

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
I am not disagreeing that a 3 is a good river card Homer but it does allow another hand to surpass your pocket queens (Quads). However it also induces river calls from smaller pocket pairs (deuces thru jacks) that your hand still beats.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have QQ, opponent has 3x

Board on turn - 9933 --- You have Q's over 9's and opponent has 3's full of 9's

Board on river - 99333 --- You have 3s full of Q's and opponent has quad 3's

...so, how does the 3 on the river allow another hand to surpass yours? Anyone who made quad 3's on the river was already ahead of you on the turn.

-- Homer

[rayrns]

My thinking was:
If a player is holding a 3 on the turn, he will have to bet to protect his hand and make the 2 pair draws "pay" for the privelege of beating him. Therefore if there is no bet, then no one holds the 3 in his pocket cards. If a 3 comes on the river, you can feel safe that your 3's full of Q's is good.
A player "might" slow play if he has a 9 in the hole, therefore you may not get any information on the turn from him. If a 9 comes on the river, you still do not know where you stand as the opponent may have quads.
Might be flawed thinking. But it was what hit me at the time.

[Homer]

Interesting thought, definitely something that I had not considered. I'm not sure what I think now. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

-- Homer

[Louie Landale]

I have QQ, board is 9-9-3-3. Since I don't fear an over-pair there are 4 cards in the deck that can have me beat right now.

Q is best river card.

9 is next since it takes away 3 of the 4 bad cards that can have you beat: if someone had one of two 3s you just outdrew them. Also, rivering a 9 means that 9 is NOT in anybody's hand. Basically, a 9 means you are beat 1/4 as often as you would be. Also a 9 is a card that couldn't help anybody else.

3 is next since that's one less bad card left in the deck and it couldn't help anybody.

2 is next since nobody is going to call with pocked 2s when the board is 9933.

4-J is next, could make someone a set,but could also make someone a pair to pay you off.

A-K are pretty bad.

The only reason I posted this is because it came up in practice. My first reaction to the river 9 was "darn" but realized, right away, it was a great card. Usually I know ahead of time what I want, but didn't bother thinking about it that time. Got paid off in two spots.

- Louie