Axs In Blinds ?

[WalleyeJason]

Ok Im in a very loose, 4-8 game.

Im in SB with A8d

Its capped before it gets to me, 5 players

Do I call?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Absolutely not. You've got a weak hand, out of position, and you don't know how many opponents you'll have.

[lil']

You don't want to put in 3.5 bets in this spot. Unless you make your flush you have nothing. Flopping an ace just isn't going to be enough here.

[WalleyeJason]

Ok what if....

There are 7 players or more? Am I getting the right pot odds now?

[slavic]

You need to make up your 14 to 1 on making the flush. So with 7 players you still have to bring in 14(7x2) BB post flop to break even. That would be a huge pot, I don't think it will make it.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

No. This is a Crap hand out of position. There is also no guarantee of your flush being good if you hit it.

Board: Ks Ao xs ys Ko sucks for your As 4s, or
Board: A-A-4-K-Q also sucks for your hand.

And these are only 2 examples.

If you can get in cheap, play this, if not throw it away.

[brian0729]

[ QUOTE ]
There is also no guarantee of your flush being good if you hit it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I ashamed to admit this but I have never even thought of this when calling 3 or 4 bets pre flop. Just thinking "I flop my flush, and I'm going to get paid" This is one of those cant see the forest for trees or something. Great point!

[ropey]

Even if you are assured of winning with a flush, i think this would be a bad call. Your only out is the flush here...you can't play the ace in a preflop that his been capped, as somebody is likely to have you outkicked. In this situation, you want to get in for as cheaply as you can to improve your pot odds.

-ropey

[Joe Tall]

No, you've got to learn to release this hand in this situation.

Don't worry they'll deal again.

[trillig]

I'd toss it, you're a long shot...

Been there, tried that...

You want proof?

Deal yourself a few 10 handed Hold'em games, except that you always have A8s as your two cards, and see how many times you would win it; ignore bets, LOL!

8)

-t

[ccwhoelse?]

your 8.1 to 1 to flop just a four-flush.
cheap is the keyword

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Would you call 4 cold on the button with Axs? Answer that honestly, then ask if you'd call 3.5 cold in the SB.

[Bob T.]

NO.

You need either a couple of diamonds, or a couple of 8s to make continueing after the flop worthwhile. Neither event will occur often enough to make investing 3 or 4 small bets a good idea.

[HUSKER'66]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to make up your 14 to 1 on making the flush. So with 7 palyers you still have to bring in 14(7x2)BB post flop to break even. etc........

[/ QUOTE ]where/how did you come up with these odds?!?!?

[slavic]

two suited cards make a flush 6.5% of the time. (100 - 6.5)/6.5 = 14.38

So odds of making a flush with an Axs are ~ 14 To 1 for the sake of simplicity.

So let's go back to the theoretical example.

7 players seeing the flop for 4 bets in a typical HE limit game.

So before you enter the pot from the blind you are getting 7 To 1 on your call, and we are assuming you can only win with a flush, that flush will be good, and you will draw out to that flush, if you catch any part of the flop.

The best scenario is, you flop the flush and you have to get the implide side of your bet out of the hand, so 14 BB.

Your initial investment was 2 BB so just to make even odds you need 28 BB, you get 14 from the initial pot. Now you have to get 2 more from each player.

Oversimplified? Absolutley. I was simply trying to make a case for myself that this is not a good idea. Sometimes however you have no choice. Your in the CO 6 limpers and you call one then the BB decides to pop it, well you have to call now, Now the SB pops it you call that one too and for good measure the Button says lets do it again. In this case you made the decidion to continue on what the pot was offering you, not as in the case listed were it's 4 bets to you.

Now to do this proper I should take the odds of completeing the flush when a 4 flush or better hits along with the additional times you'll have to put more money in the pot and those expected values. The thing is I can look at the simple form and say nope, Axs not good.

Or so it seems to me....

[Inthacup]

two suited cards make a flush 6.5% of the time. (100 - 6.5)/6.5 = 14.38

This is assuming a 5 card board. You'll only flop a 4-flush or better(which you need to continue) on the flop around 1 in 30 times. I don't think the times that you flop a 3 flush and hit your runner runner should be taken into account in the scenario you provided.

[slavic]

I agree. I biased the equation so that my estimation should be tilted away from my most likely conclusion. So knowing that I'm looking at the best case for the hand, and it's still taking it in the shorts I don't need to go further.

[Bob T.]

But you didn't count the two pair/trips/full house/quads flops either.