15-30: Maniacs force one to make tough decisions

[Clarkmeister]

15-30 Bellagio.

Maniac 2 to my right is destroying a game of generally weak tight Vegas regulars. In one stretch, he stole the blinds 2 of 3 times from MP and in the 3rd of those hands, he won with a bet on the flop. He showed his hands: 94s, 65o, T6o. He plays pretty fast on the flop if he has something, but is capable of slowplaying. Is also capable of bluffing, bluff raising, blah blah blah. Total maniac who is winning because IMO people fold too much rather than because he is running good.

So. A little tilty but sane player limps in EP, Maniac raises in the CO. I look down and see AcQh and 3-bet. BB folds, EP folds, Maniac calls. 3 to the flop for 4BBs.

We've been chatting, he looks at me and says: "You have a five?" Which is a reference to the many pots he has won with a 5 in his hand. In one such hand he 3-bet a totally tight local and flopped 558 against JJ. I say "No, I promise you I don't have even one five".

Flop: Js Ts 6d. I bet, he looks at me, pauses (which he does all the time) and calls.

Turn: 6s. Putting 3 spades on the board. I bet my Ace high, gutshot straight draw with no spade. He looks at me again, deciding what to do. I look back and say "Flush good". He says "really?" I say "yup, I can't beat a flush yet." He finally says, "OK, then I raise my flush".

I don't think he has a flush yet because he would have raised the flop with a 4 flush 100% of the time. He could easily have a 6 though, or a pair with the As, or even just be trying to blow me off a hand in what is now a 6BB pot when it gets to him.

So its raised to me. 8BBs in the pot. What's your move, raise, call or fold?

If you call, do you plan to call unimproved on the river if you don't make a pair or a straight? What if you improve but do so with a spade?

[mikelow]

You may have overplayed this one, but you can still extricate yourself by calling and betting if an ace, queen, jack, ten or spade comes on the river.

[Dynasty]

I don't know why you are tempting your opponent to make a play at the pot while you've got just Ace-high. Sure, he's losing money if he makes a play with his 85o-no spade hand. But, he's still drawing live to six outs. The pot is big enough that you want him to fold most hands.

Of course, you call his turn raise and at least call a river bet if you don't improve.

[adios]

I'm fairly certain you're behind at this point but take a card off for sure. Probably have to call the river too. Probably many will disagree but even though I'd give a free card on the turn, I'd check behind on the turn and call on the river.

[elysium]

hi clark
i'm starting to hand-read the posts. the amount of info you have typed in tells me that you won this one with a pair against his missed draw. you may have even called a river raise.

i'm setting that read aside.....dynasty. i'm going to treat this post as though i were unfamiliar with clark's voice stress indications about his holding.

clark, you're against a completed flush on the turn. i recommend that you check-fold. assuming that the third flush card didn't get there on the turn, you should check-call the turn, and check-call the river. again, this is advice in a generic situation. here though clark, this opponent bets into you on the river with Q9 or K9 busted draw and you take this thing down. i just want to get a little generically counter-intuitive with ya.

[Michael Davis]

I'm not sure why you think Clark overplayed this one.

Do you recommend checking behind on the turn, calling a bet on the river?

I prefer betting. There are many hands you are still ahead of, and you only have ace high. You don't want the maniac drawing to a possibly losing but still alive six-outer for free?

-Mike

[Georgia Peach]

Well, if he's got 6, you only have four outs being the K and the pot odds don't justify a call. Right?

If he's got two pair then you have every reason to call the raise and a river bet.

I think with the luck this guy's been having, I would probably assume a set and fold and just wait for a hand to punish him for loose play.

[adios]

"I think with the luck this guy's been having"

minus EV thinking IMO.

[Pot-A]

This kind of guy would have check-raised you on the flop if he didn't have anything - it's the only way he can win. Usually maniacs play predictably on the turn. You told him you'd call and he raised anyway. I'm thinking he has the flush - throw it away.

Personally, I would have checked behind him on the turn. You don't even have a pair.

[Clarkmeister]

My mistake for making it not more clear. I stated in the post that maniac was 2 to my right, and he was. So his open raise in the CO put me in the SB.

Therefore I cannot check behind on the turn. I led at the flop, he called, I led at the turn, then he raised.

Sorry for any confusion from not explicitly stating I was in the Small Blind.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Clark:

You wrote:

He plays pretty fast on the flop if he has something, but is capable of slowplaying. Is also capable of bluffing, bluff raising, blah blah blah.

With this being the case, even though he is playing (and raising with) way too many hands before the flop, he becomes a formiable opponent after the flop. This in my mind makes your three bet with the ace-queen questionable. I'm not saying it's wrong, and there's a good chance I would make the exact same play, but you need to be aware that you could have problems on the later streets. This usually means that you may not want to bet a marginal hand on fourth street since you may get raised as a bluff about the right amount of time. However, if you do check, make sure to call on the river.

Best wishes,
Mason

[Clarkmeister]

"I don't know why you are tempting your opponent to make a play at the pot while you've got just Ace-high. Sure, he's losing money if he makes a play with his 85o-no spade hand. But, he's still drawing live to six outs. The pot is big enough that you want him to fold most hands."

Because I thought he didn't have a 4-flush on the flop, I actually thought he'd fold. I've been experimenting, and its my experience that people tend to overestimate your hand when you say things like that. So I thought he'd put me on top two pair or an overpair for sure and likely fold.

[Clarkmeister]

"I'm not sure why you think Clark overplayed this one. "

Me neither, especially given that I didn't have position. I hope everyone reads my post clarifying that I was in the SB (2 to the left of the maniac).

"I prefer betting. There are many hands you are still ahead of, and you only have ace high"

And before he raises the turn, the hands I am ahead of include just about every hand in the deck with 2 suited cards 3 or higher, and 2 offsuit cards 5 or higher.

[Clarkmeister]

"I'm fairly certain you're behind at this point but take a card off for sure. Probably have to call the river too. Probably many will disagree but even though I'd give a free card on the turn, I'd check behind on the turn and call on the river"

Tom,

Given that I was in the SB, would you lead the turn?

[adios]

To be honest I probably would lead at it most of the time.

[Clarkmeister]

"I think with the luck this guy's been having, I would probably assume a set and fold and just wait for a hand to punish him for loose play."

Georgia,

I agree with Tom that this is -EV thinking, and let me elaborate on why.

In my initial post, I gave an example where he did, in fact, get lucky. And to be sure, there are other examples. However, he wasn't running amazingly well or anything with his garbage hands.

He was crushing the table because people were waiting for AA-JJ and AK to take him on and were not properly adjusting their 3-betting and blind defence standards. He was crushing the game because everyone was waiting for a "monster" to pummel him with, and folding the rest of the time. So he was picking up way more than his fair share of the pots simply by betting. I have no doubt that his style was profitable given that the weak-tight table was making virtually no adjustments to his play.

So automatically folding (and maybe its right to fold *this* time) with an 8BB pot because he "might" have a 6 is suicide against this opponent. His range of hands that he would raise the turn with is far far wider than that.

Of course, it always feels silly when they show the 6, but its a game of imperfect information.

[Clarkmeister]

"With this being the case, even though he is playing (and raising with) way too many hands before the flop, he becomes a formiable opponent after the flop."

I agree with you.

"This in my mind makes your three bet with the ace-queen questionable. I'm not saying it's wrong, and there's a good chance I would make the exact same play, but you need to be aware that you could have problems on the later streets."

In some situations, I agree. However here he raised a sane (meaning, capable of limp-folding) limper and the BB was too tight. I thought there was a large chance of getting headsup with my 3-bet from the Small Blind. So my 3-bet can not only get me headsup, it can put 1BB of dead money in the pot. Given this specific situation, I think 3-betting is the only play to make.

"This usually means that you may not want to bet a marginal hand on fourth street since you may get raised as a bluff about the right amount of time. However, if you do check, make sure to call on the river."

Good point. Basically once its headsup, I intend to have a ticket to showdown against this opponent. However, the board is rapidly getting scary enough that I think it may be prudent to change plans and consider folding the river, espeically if I do not improve and a spade comes.

[Clarkmeister]

"To be honest I probably would lead at it most of the time."

Yeah, and I think I would lead again if I had it to do over, though Mason makes a good case for checking. Especially given that I read him for no 4-flush on the flop, this is a scary board for him. I don't want to give a 6-out hand a chance to draw out, and I also want to let a hand like 22 fold.

Unfortunately, betting forces one to make a difficult decision here and on the river if this very unpredictable opponent chooses to apply pressure. Hence the post. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Clarkmeister]

I decided to call with really no plan yet other than the thought that I had 13 (2A's, 3K's, 3Q's, 3J's and 3T's) outs against a hand like 3s3h, and 7 against a hand like ThXs or 7h7s. I figured 8-1 was ample price to continue.

After the river, the board was [Js Ts 6d 6s] 4h.

Bet? Check-fold? Check-call? or Check-raise?

[JimRivett]

Do you really think that he's a maniac or just being very aggressive? It seems to me that in this game of weak tight players his plan doesn't seem to be too far out of place.

I don't like to discuss hands either when they are happening or after they end. When someone tries to discuss a hand in progress, I try to stay silent and give them my "school boy" grim.

I may have been inclined to check my ace high on the turn and get to the river, as cheap as possible for a show down. You say he's been running over the table, and I think that calling him down (assuming he bets the turn and river) could be the best play here.

Regards,
Jim

[Georgia Peach]

I have no doubt y'all are correct about my suggestion (folding) being -EV. I'm still not on firm ground when it comes to EV. I guess it comes down to what are the odds that he's holding a set versus two pair or a stone cold bluff. Just from the description you've given, I place him on a set.

But, back to the hand. You've just been re-raised on the turn 6 by a fellow who has (unless I missed something) not bluffed and has stayed in hands when he has the best cards, no matter how much garbage they are.

You called and a rag shows up on the river. Now you're forced to check and call because you can't muck and hope he shows you his cards.

I hope I'm wrong and he was bluffing with nothing and your ace high takes it. It would be a nice pot for you and might make him burn a little.

[Clarkmeister]

"You've just been re-raised on the turn 6 by a fellow who has (unless I missed something) not bluffed and has stayed in hands when he has the best cards"

From my initial post:

"Is also capable of bluffing, bluff raising, blah blah blah. Total maniac who is winning because IMO people fold too much rather than because he is running good."

So just to be clear, I had seen him bluff on several occassions prior to this hand. That is what makes the turn and subsequent river choice difficult.

[Clarkmeister]

"After the river, the board was [Js Ts 6d 6s] 4h."

I checked, he checked behind and said "your Jack is good".

I flipped over my AQ. He kind of shook his head, slooooowly rolled over the 5c. Looked at my hand again, looked at his other card again, and flashed the As as he tapped the felt and said "ni han".

[Georgia Peach]

[bruce]

Looking back retrospectively it's easy to second guess yourself about betting the turn. Three betting BTF seems like the best play esp. if you can get the pot headsup. After three betting the flop betting the flop is pretty routine although I suppose you can make a case for checking the flop and then automatically raising the turn. I think
against aggressive live ones checking the turn is clearly the best play. When you are checkraised you really have no idea where you are and if you are behing you lose the maximum. In a headsup pot giving up a free card is not nearly as dangerous as in a multiway pot. If I check the turn unless a real scare card comes I will call almost always on the river.

Bruce

[hutz]

I have no doubt y'all are correct about my suggestion (folding) being -EV.

I believe the -EV thinking to which they were referring is the same that made me groan when I read your first reply -- your thinking that the guy was "lucky" and, thus, must have trips. Thinking someone has a particular hand (good or bad) based on the quality of their recent "luck" (good or bad) is a path to ruin.