JJ on the button on the bubble

[shaniac]

Pokerstars $100+9 NLHE tournament. 141 in, 18 paid, 23 left.

You have almost 8K a bit lower than average. Blinds 300/600 50 ante.

You have JJ on the button and player 'Donkey' raises allin for $5,200 in early position.

what's your play?

thanks. Results and comments to follow.

Shane

[act]

If i knew nothing else about the guy I would not hesitate to fold.
He too is on the bubble, and with a small but not tiny stack he is not likely to risk it all with a bad hand.
Your are probably with a 50% chance at best, and with the blinds and antes being less than 15% of the total pot if yoy call (I assume ten handed table), I don't think it is worth it.
... not to mention that the blinds could have strong hands.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

This is a tough one. Sure, you don't want to be crippled this close to the money, but a big win here would sure give you a real shot at all the marbles.

I'd be likely to discount AA or KK, since he'd probably want a caller and thus only bet 1,800 or so. QQ, AK and AQ are possible. The real question is - would he make this raise with TT, 99 or Ax (where x < Q)?

The more I think, the more I want to lay it down. If this raise came from the C/O I'd be tempted to call, but not here.

[Runner Runner]

I think this is a call. KK or AA are unlikely because he would want callers and would not raise all in. That leaves QQ as the only hand you are up against that has you in bad shape. AK, AQ, KQ you are a small favorite against. Your opponent could also be moving in with a pair as small as 7's or maybe something like AJ, you are a big favorite against those hands and that is why you must call. Please don't pass here, the blinds and antes are too big to pass with the 4th best starting hand in hold em. I hate calling all ins too but you must call here.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Your opponent could also be moving in with a pair as small as 7's or maybe something like AJ, you are a big favorite against those hands and that is why you must call.

If I were relatively sure of this (which I would be if the raiser were closer to the button) I would agree 100%. From UTG, I think this is less likely, thus I think calling here is a very tough decision.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If I recall correctly, Donkey is an experienced player who has a clue. As such, he knows he's going to hate taking the blinds and losing 20+% of his stack in a hand or two. And he knows he's still got enough chips that it will be hard for most people to call his all-in, but if he gets blinded down much more, he won't be able to scare away callers and steal the blinds.

Therefore, I don't give him credit for all that much of a hand, and I would reraise him all-in myself (to discourage further callers).

As others have mentioned, many players would be more likely to make a regular-sized raise of 1800 or so with AA or KK, hoping to get played back at. QQ is also a strong enough hand that he shouldn't mind some action (especially since AK is going to come along either way).

While this is somewhat close, it seems like a clear all-in to me. If Donkey is a known newbie who's been playing passively, then I might actually give him credit for MORE of a hand here, and be more inclined to fold.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[shaniac]

I thought for a little while and my reasoning was similar to many of my repondents, and I raised allin for another 2K just to discourage the blinds from coming in.

The BB--who had 21K in chips thought for about 20-30 seconds and then called. Donkey, the original raiser, shows AKs, the BB (who had just called of 1/3 of his stack) reveals AQo.

So the question is this: was this a good call because I had the correct read AND the better hand? I'm thinking that is is not necessarily. This might be as good a time as there could be the avoid a coinflip, even with the best of it. The money is around the corner and 8K is enough to work with. A great player once told me that a key to playing in tournaments is avoiding coinflips, and I think if I can't internalize that, I will never be great myself.

I think Donkey's play is fine and the BB's is of course attrocious.

Results FWIW: Flipper comes down with rags--T-high. Turn: Ace. River: Ace, adding insult to injury.

thanks to all,
shane

[cferejohn]

I think against Donkey I would have played as you did. He is a good player and gets very aggressive when he gets short stacked. Actually, he is the player I have run into there who I think plays most like me. I think he'd make this play with any pair better than 88, and also AK and possibly AQ.

The BB call was, as you said, horrible.

[Bozeman]

I think coin flip refers to those times where you are close to 50-50, or when you have pot odds, not the times when you are 2:1 favorite with dead money in the pot.

If you read them as both having an ace, you can be 3:1 favorite even if both stay in (though you are only 1.75:1 if they are both suited in the suits you don't hold). This is way too good to pass up.

Craig

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
I think coin flip refers to those times where you are close to 50-50, or when you have pot odds, not the times when you are 2:1 favorite with dead money in the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

JJ is a 7:6 favourite against AKs, not 2:1. In my book, 7:6 is close enough to be called a coin flip.

[Bozeman]

Sorry, I thought I was in a different message.

[youtalkfunny]

I fold here. It's tough enough to win a big pot with JJ when you're the aggressor. Playing these rags, then having the extra handicap of being the CALLER, makes this hand a loser, IMO.

Andy Glazer wrote (what I thought was) a great piece recently about JJ in NL HE. The jist was, "So many people treat JJ like it was QQ or even KK. Treat the hand like it was 88."

If you'd muck 88 here, you should probably muck JJ.