You Know You're Running Good When...

[CMangano]

Ok, here are 2 hands against the same opponent. 3/6 full table at Party.

First hand I am dealt A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif in the SB. UTG calls, 2 MP's call, I call and BB checks.

Flop comes K/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif. Not a bad flop. I decide to bet out rather than take a chance of it getting checked around. BB folds, UTG calls and 1 MP calls.

Turn comes 8/images/graemlins/club.gif [K/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif]. I bet again (questionable?) and both players call.

River comes A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif [K/images/graemlins/heart.gif T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif 8/images/graemlins/club.gif]. This is a good/bad card for me. I have Aces up, but the straight is out there. I bet, UTG raises, MP folds and I make a crying call.

UTG shows TT for the slowplayed set, ouch, and I am wishing I hit my flush sooooo badly.

Ok, the very next hand I am dealt QQ on the button. 4 limpers to me, I raise, both blinds call (last opponent is the bb now) and everyone else calls.

Flop comes 8 9 2 rainbow. BB bets into me (I read this for a draw since he had just slowplayed a big hand). One caller to me I raise, both just call.

Turn comes 5 [8 9 2] two hearts now. Again BB bets into me. 67?!? I raise again and he just calls (bad raise here? My thinking was, if he had a big hand he would slowplay it). He just calls, other player calls also.

River comes K [8 9 2 5]. BB bets again! Other player folds and I make a crying call again and BB shows 99!

The dude flopped a set back to back! I can't even fathom what the odds are of getting dealt TT and 99 back to back, let alone flopping a set with them back to back.

Oh well, when you're running good you're running good I guess.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
The dude flopped a set back to back! I can't even fathom what the odds are of getting dealt TT and 99 back to back, let alone flopping a set with them back to back.


[/ QUOTE ]

The odds are 220-1 to get TT everytime you are dealt two cards. The odds are 220-1 to get 99 everytime you are dealt two cards. The odds are 7.5-1 to flopping a set.

On the very next hand:

The odds are 220-1 to get TT everytime you are dealt two cards. The odds are 220-1 to get 99 everytime you are dealt two cards. The odds are 7.5-1 to flopping a set.

BUT on the NEXT hand:

The odds are 220-1 to get TT everytime you are dealt two cards. The odds are 220-1 to get 99 everytime you are dealt two cards. The odds are 7.5-1 to flopping a set.

Shuffle, shuffle,
Larry Joe

[CMangano]

LOL. Ok, but what are the odds that he gets TT and 99 back to back, flops a set with them, and has me to pay him off the whole way? /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[JohnShaft]

Hand 1 I would tend to bet the flop, and check the turn on that board, it doesn't look like you are getting rid of both of them, and you'd prefer a free river. I know a lot of people will bet in that spot though.
I'd have made the bet on the river, and called the raise too.

Hand 2, you're lucky the BB didn't make you pay more for it. I 3-bet you on the turn here everytime. There wasn't a lot you could have done about the hand though. Some people bet out of the blinds repeatedly on draws, and you could have thought about just calling him down. I'm not sure that would be right though. Just be grateful he only got 3 bets out of you despite your turn raise (when there's no way he doesn't have you beat).

[Mike Gallo]

Excellent explanation.

[oddjob]

not sure about the odds, but i once got JJ back to back and flopped a set both times. in fact, it was raised from ep, by the same guy and i reraised him preflop both times.

the other day i saw a guy gt AK 4 times in a row, then he got AQ, then he got AK again.

so weird.

[Joe Tall]

LOL. Ok, but what are the odds that he gets TT and 99 back to back, flops a set with them, and has me to pay him off the whole way?

Given the sampling of hands....100% /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[CrackerZack]

I was playing a single table tourney 3 nights ago and with 5 players left, I had in 5 consecutive hands KK, AA, KK, [rags, folded], QQ and flopped a set with the 2nd KK and QQ. Needless to say, I won the tourney. I had 85% of the chips after these hands. on the QQ hand, I got called by 44 on a board of QT755. They didn't want to believe me. I got beat up at the cash games though so I wasn't really running good.