Is this too tight and weak?

[valueplayer]

A $40-80 game, an aggressive UTG raises the pot and I three bet with pocket Aces. A very solid tight regular on my left thought for a while and decided to smooth call and I say to myself he must have had KK, QQ, JJ. 3 way go see the flop and it was JQQ. I did the initial bet to see his reaction, he smooth called and the initial raiser mucked. Easier to play now I feel. A blank came and I checked the turn and he bet and I called. Same goes with the river. Should I have mucked here because I was about 75% sure that he had me beat. The only hand I could beat is KKs.

2 hands later. I'm UTG +1 open raise with Pocket Queens, the same solid player on my left 3 bets me and very good aggressive player (he only raises you when he knows that he has you beat or tries to outplay you) on the button caps it. I mucked my Queens because I put at least one of them had me beat. Let say if your read is correct that one of them had you beat before the flop, would you still make this kind of lay down or pay to see the flop? We sometimes three bet people with a wide range of hands include AK, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, Tens and so on. Please advise. Thanks.

[Instinct]

I don't play at these limits but my reaction is that you played too weak.
I think that is a terrible fold of your QQ. You almost have correct odds to call based on hitting your set. Plus you still could be good. Even the most solid players have trouble mucking AKs. You could be ahead.
In the first hand I would bet turn and still call a raise. If raised I would check call river.
Maybe the very solid players at 40-80 are more solid than at 10-20 and 20-40 but in both cases I think you are underestimating the percentage that you ahead.

[valueplayer]

What about your reads? do you just throw that out the window and don't take them into consideration? I don't want to be one of those guys saying "I know you have me beat but I'll pay you off"

[Yeknom58]

On the first hand, what did he have? I don't think you gained too much info from his "smooth call on the flop". I think you check raise him on the turn and fold to a re-raise.

[valueplayer]

Hand 1. He took down the pot with pocket Jacks. Flopped full-house.

Hand 2. The solid player on my left had 2 Kings and the aggressive button had 2 Aces. 2 Aces took that one down with a rag board.

Calling a hand when you are sure that you are beat isn't that a weak play? I don't know if it's a correct call in hoping to flop a set in a three way pot?

[Dante]

You don't want to consistently fold like that either or people will raise you so you can make "a good laydown".

Dante

[Coilean]

Hand 1 one is simple, you already answered it yourself. You said you were 75% sure he had you beat. With 9 bets in the pot on the river, that means you must call: EV = 0.75(-1BB) + 0.25(+9BB) = +1.5BB.

Hand 2 I would call. You are getting 11:2 to call, and it should be pretty easy to pick up another 10-12 bets if you flop a set. If both of them are in the AK/AA-TT range you cited (41 hands, of which you beat 28), your propects of having the best starting hand are nearly 50% anyway.

[AceHigh]

[ QUOTE ]
You said you were 75% sure he had you beat. With 9 bets in the pot on the river, that means you must call: EV = 0.75(-1BB) + 0.25(+9BB) = +1.5BB.


[/ QUOTE ]

If he is 75% sure on the turn wouldn't the EV equation be:
EV = .75 (-2BB) + .25 (+7BB) = .25BB?

Still +EV and calling is still the right play. But closer decision.

[elysium]

hi value
disregard the button's cap. if he is good and likes to outplay as you describe, from the button you must rate his holding downward. this isn't true in the case of an opponent who is tight but who wouldn't be knoweldgeable enough to know to lower his entry standards from the button position. the opponent you describe would do just that, so if you were going to call the 3 bet, you should call the cap with your holding.

if you flop an over-pair, your QQ is the favorite and you must bet it as such until your opponents tell you that you're beat. as long as you're not over-carded, you should at least call any reraise and check-call the rest of the way. if an A or K comes off along the way, or the board gets scary with a lot of raising, then you can consider folding. but here, you're the favorite.

the first hand was played fine.

[Instinct]

I just read the results.

I can see your reasoning for playing less aggressively in hand #1 than I usually would and at times I feel like I am sometimes paying off when some more seasoned players would be laying hands down. There are a couple of players I play against that I would just bet flop and check turn in this situation as well but unless I feel I have an excellent read I would play more aggressively. I think you played hand #1 fine, not weak, but just less aggressively than I would have.

Hand #2 I still think you call pre-flop, and if you don't hit your set or have a draw then it may be an easy laydown on flop with your reads. Its close of course with the reads you have but I wouldn't hesitate myself and "blindly" through my chips in and pray for a Queen.

Obviously I would have lost more $$ than you on these hands but unless I'm convinced otherwise I would still play them this way.

[hillbilly]

"if he is 75% sure on the turn wouldn't the EV equation be:
EV = .75 (-2BB) + .25 (+7BB) = .25BB?"

i understand how you changed the equation to a turn AND river bet but doesn't the .25 part stay at 9BB? (final pot size at river?)

[AceHigh]

Yes, you are correct, my bad, D'oh! Should be EV = +.75BB.

Nice catch.

I guess I should leave EV calcs to experts like Coilean.

[Coilean]

If you look at it from the turn, hero should profit 8BB for the 25% of the time he wins, unless you're assuming there is no bet on the river when the aces are good (which doesn't seem reasonable as the most likely hand hero beats is KK, which would surely bet given the action). So you should probably use +8BB in your modified equation for deciding on the turn, but then you have to account for each players probable 2 outs as well (leading to an EV of 0.75(42/44(-2BB)+2/44(+8BB)) + 0.25(2/44(-2BB)+42/44(+8BB)) = +0.73BB). You can pick up another +0.04BB if assume you can get in a check raise on the river by spiking an ace.

Anyway, I wasn't assuming hero had already decided he was 75% beat on the turn, since he didn't mention that bit until after his river action. Nevertheless, as you say, the answer is still to call, regardless of when hero decided his chance to win was only 25%. And hero's equity in the pot might be as good as 60% if opponent can only have AA-JJ and would play all of them this way.

[hillbilly]

i'm an ev moron actually, but i try....(sigh)

i'm sure glad coilean is posting again though.

[Coilean]

Hillbilly and AceHigh,

The figure you use as your potential profit in making a turn decision for Hand 1 should actually be +8BB. When you decide to call on the turn, your turn bet is an additional cost, and shouldn't be counted as a profit. When deciding to call on the river, your turn bet is already part of the pot, and is thus profit.

Another way to look at it: the final pot size will be 10BB. The cost it takes you to see the showdown is always deducted from the final pot size in order to determine your profit from the time of your decision. So on the turn you look at it as costing you 2BB to win 8BB, and on the river you would instead look at it as costing 1BB to win 9BB.

[Coilean]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm an ev moron actually, but i try....(sigh)

[/ QUOTE ]
No one who plays winning poker is an EV moron. Making a correct decision by instinct and experience is just as good as doing it by math. It's a bit impractical (at least for mere mortals such as myself) to do these equations mentally at the table, but they're a useful tool to aid you in finding the right play after the fact. And then the next time you're in a similar spot, you might be able to make a better decision.

[ QUOTE ]
i'm sure glad coilean is posting again though.

[/ QUOTE ]
Me too /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Yeknom58]

That's exactly what I mean. You either take a shot at this pot with a raise or you fold, calling being a distant third.

So I guess yes calling was weak tight.

[AceHigh]

I appreciate the detailed answer/correction. I think I learned something.

I thought the most important decision was on the turn, so I thought the EV analysis should be done there.

[Gabe]

[ QUOTE ]
A $40-80 game, an aggressive UTG raises the pot and I three bet with pocket Aces. A very solid tight regular on my left thought for a while and decided to smooth call and I say to myself he must have had KK, QQ, JJ. 3 way go see the flop and it was JQQ. I did the initial bet to see his reaction, he smooth called and the initial raiser mucked. Easier to play now I feel. A blank came and I checked the turn and he bet and I called. Same goes with the river. Should I have mucked here because I was about 75% sure that he had me beat. The only hand I could beat is KKs.

[/ QUOTE ]

You were a favorite. 3 to 2.