Tough NLHE situation heads-up against very strong player

[Ulysses]

1-2-2. 5 to go. UTG (terrible player) makes it 10 to go. My read is that this guy has a very big hand. I think he'll re-raise if given a chance. Also in front of me are two very aggressive players who will make a big move w/ any reasonable hand.

I have two black Aces. I make it 20, expecting one of the aggressive players or UTG to come over the top. 3 players cold-call (including 2 strong players) and UTG just calls.

Flop 2c 5c 6s

100 in the pot. SB checks. UTG checks. I bet 100. My stack is about 2000. SB is a strong NL player (Keith) w/ equal-sized stack to mine, cold-calls. He plays any two cards pre-flop when big stacks are involved. He just took down a huge pot from AKs and JJ when he called 100 pre-flop and his 36s saw a J45 flop (flush draw for AK) followed by a turned deuce and rivered Ace. SB would call my bet/ w any pair, flopped straight, flush draw, straight draw, etc. SB calls and then checks the turn in the dark.

Flop (2c 5c 6s) 6h

I bet the pot (300). SB check-raises making it 400 more. This guy is capable of doing this w/ anything - any pair, full house, straight, flush draw, etc.

What now? FWIW, I'm pretty sure that if I call here, this guy will push all-in on the river (over 1000 more) w/ the same range of hands.

If I'm considering folding here, should I have checked behind? The problem w/ that is that if I check behind on the turn, it's 100% guaranteed that he will push all-in on the river.

Against a player like this in this situation, should I just be happy to call all-in w/ Aces every time?

[The Gift Of Gab]

Since I've played with both of you, I have much more to say about this hand then I want to type. If you make it to the LC's 5-5 game this evening I'd love to talk about it, but in a word, I think you're f***ed.

[TAFKAn]

This game sounds like it's tougher than it's worth. I would say that the regular players should probably look for better spots.

[Mike Gallo]

If I'm considering folding here, should I have checked behind? The problem w/ that is that if I check behind on the turn, it's 100% guaranteed that he will push all-in on the river Excellent point. Why bet if you can't handle a raise. Why didnt you put him all in yourself, did you fear a 56 or a 34? Would he make a bet like this with a flush draw? If he has 34 suited, he could have the srtaight flush draw.

You need to ask yourself what does your opponent put you on here? What did you put him on? What do you think he thought that he had? He could easily have a hand like 56 or 34 suited from the way you have described this player.

If he had a flush draw (doubtful since you have the ace of trump)would he bet this strong to make you laydown your overpair? Does he judge you as a solid player, who can make huge laydowns? If so he might think you can laydown your overpair and make a big semi bluff raise.

Against a player like this in this situation, should I just be happy to call all-in w/ Aces every time?

If he bluffs too much yes, if he only puts in money with the nuts then no. If its somewhere in the middle, use game theory.

Either way, I think you have a very difficult decision to make.

Please post the results. I have a sneaking suspicion your opponent didnt have a flush draw but had 56...not 34 suited.

[jen]

Tough spot. I strongly agree with MG -- if you can't take a raise, then you shouldn't have bet the turn -- regardless of whether you think SB would've pushed all-in on the river.

I haven't played enough with Keith to know how he plays except that I pretty much agree with your profile. I'd also add overpairs to Keith's possible holdings. It's a hard call, but if you're willing to call here, then I think you should push all-in.

[Ignatius]

I think the cardinal mistake here is your minimum reraise preflop which gives your hand away w/o charging a proper price for trying to outflop you. A normal reraise (to, say, $40 or $50) is much less suspicious as it looks like an isolation raise / effort to take it down, whereas begging for a reraise with $10 more litterally screams aces.
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SB check-raises making it 400 more. What now?
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I think you have to muck. It's too easy to put you on an overpair and the amount of his raise (1/4 of the remaining stack while laying you almost 4:1) more looks like trap play to me w/ a str8 or a six (probably 65 for the boat, as he would have to fear the flush draw otherwise).
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The problem w/ that is that if I check behind on the turn, it's 100% guaranteed that he will push all-in on the river. Against a player like this in this situation, should I just be happy to call all-in w/ Aces every time?
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In theory: yes. However, I doubt that your 100% statement is really accurate. If he really is that good a player, then I doubt that he would move in on medium hands like an overpair, thereby turning a hand that might be good into a pure bluff.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

[ QUOTE ]
It's a hard call, but if you're willing to call here, then I think you should push all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Gotta disagree with this statement. This isn't limit holdem, where you're willing to call with your unimproved AK, but where betting it instead might get a small pair to fold. This is big bet, and you've got a hand that can beat ALL bluffs, and some legitimate hands. If you bet all-in, you'll only get called by better hands, and you won't get any of those better hands to fold (with very few exceptions in either category). However, if the opponent is aggressive, by checking and calling the all-in, you will still lose your stack to most of those better hands (a very few will check behind you), but you will double up against all the bluffs and a few of the mistaken value bets.

If I go all-in on the river playing big bet, it's either because I expect a call and want to win the most, or it's a bluff. I will seldom have a medium strength hand.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Ulysses]

I mucked pretty quickly. I felt there was a good chance I was ahead, but knew I would likely be committing my whole stack to find out. The game was full of weak players w/ decent stacks, so I decided to wait for a better spot.

Keith said "AK no good" and flipped over 88. All the weak players at the table were impressed by Keith's obviously correct read. I knew he knew better.

After the session, I talked with Keith about this hand and he said he was sure on the flop I had a bigger pair (most likely TT/JJ, but possibly bigger) than his. He said his plan in the hand was to either fold on the turn or checkraise if it was a 2,3,4,5,6,7 or 8. He had a lot of outs. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I think GiftOfGab was right and I was pretty much screwed on this hand. Part of the reason I bet was that I felt there were a lot of hands he would call w/ and then make a checkraise move on the river (this is a pretty standard betting pattern of his). I thought betting the turn then checking behind on the river was a reasonable plan.

But I knew a turn checkraise was a possibility and I knew I'd probably lay down to it. Given that, perhaps I should have checked behind. I feel like an Ace, Six, or maybe even any face card gets me the pot on the river.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Since I've played with both of you, I have much more to say about this hand then I want to type. If you make it to the LC's 5-5 game this evening I'd love to talk about it, but in a word, I think you're f***ed.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your assessment of my situation is pretty much right on the money. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

I made it to LC about 11:30 and played 20-40 'til 1:30. Never got called for the NL - made it from #6 to #1 on the list when I left. Ugh. Around 1am, the three tough players in the NL game all left. Would have been a great game then, but unfortunately I couldn't stay all night.

[jen]

What you're saying makes sense to me as does Ignatius's post. I stand corrected -- Keith likely isn't holding an overpair. Ulysses should fold. But if Ulysses does call, then going all-in isn't correct here.

This wasn't my hand, but these were very instructive posts - thanks Greg and Ignatius.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
This game sounds like it's tougher than it's worth. I would say that the regular players should probably look for better spots.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say the regulars should be pretty happy that clowns like me are joining the party. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

A quote from a regular about the game on Saturday night: "Very good game. Three new players. All learn no-limit on TV."

I'm glad there are some players like that so novices like myself stand a fighting chance. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[jen]

Quit making fun of my schooling... how else am I supposed to learn NLHE if not from WPT... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the cardinal mistake here is your minimum reraise preflop which gives your hand away w/o charging a proper price for trying to outflop you.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree that it's a mistake, but FWIW, it didn't give away my hand quite as much as you thought. In fact, Keith felt sure I had something in the range of 99-JJ or maybe AKs/AQs. He was pretty sure I didn't have QQ/KK/AA since I pretty consistently make a good-sized raise w/ those hands. Unfortunately, my mistaken read on the opener definitely makes my small raise a mistake. He said he thought he could get me lay down a medium overpair but was probably screwed if I actually had Kings or Aces as he expected me to call down w/ those two hands.

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to muck. It's too easy to put you on an overpair and the amount of his raise (1/4 of the remaining stack while laying you almost 4:1) more looks like trap play to me w/ a str8 or a six (probably 65 for the boat, as he would have to fear the flush draw otherwise).

[/ QUOTE ]
I felt I had to muck for the same reasons. I think more times than not he will have me drawing to two outs in this spot.

[ QUOTE ]
In theory: yes. However, I doubt that your 100% statement is really accurate. If he really is that good a player, then I doubt that he would move in on medium hands like an overpair, thereby turning a hand that might be good into a pure bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good point. It's probably less than 100% in any case, plus a number of big cards might freeze the action as well.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
if you can't take a raise, then you shouldn't have bet the turn

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm inclined to agree w/ you on this point, though I'm still not completely sure.

[ QUOTE ]
It's a hard call, but if you're willing to call here, then I think you should push all-in.

[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree. What's he going to call me with? If I'm going to commit my whole stack in this situation, I'd rather call him than get called (which means I'm dead).

[Mike Gallo]

Ulysses,

Tough hand. I gave him too much credit.

FWIW, you did have a very difficult decision to make.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Tough hand. I gave him too much credit.


[/ QUOTE ]

Or not enough. /images/graemlins/cool.gif