Overpair fearing another Overpair

[Josh W]

Swung by the Hustler tonight....good times, good times.

I jumped into a shorthanded 25-50 game that quickly filled up after I sat down. That shoulda been my cue to leave, I guess /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

Anyways....it's 8 or 9 handed now, and fairly loose. The only other tight player at the table in on my immediate left...he's been a pro for 19 years, and no longer factors into the story, so I'm gonna stop talking about him right NOW!!

Anyhoo, UTG raises. UTG plays a lot, and is probably slowly going broke. He plays a lot too loose, and a little too aggressive. Two players cold-call, and I call in the cutoff with TT. Yes, I see merits to threebetting. Yes, I see merits (fewer) to folding. The SB mucks (wait, he was tight, too, my bad), and the BB calls. 5 of us see the flop.

Flop comes 552. BB checks, UTG bets, one caller, I raise, BB mucks, UTG calls, and the caller mucks (beats me!!). So, now we are heads up.

But here's the thing....The way UTG called my raise...after the BB folded, he probably felt safe that nobody had a 5, he quite possibly had a bigger overpair than mine, and was going to checkraise the turn. That's what he'd do here with AA, KK, and likely QQ. Maybe JJ, too.

The turn brings a 9.

Now, he checks, and I really don't know what to do.

As Mason points out in the recent "My TurN Raise" by HotTubMan#1, a medium overpair like my TT needs to bet here to protect against overcards. However, I'm not sure that he's going to fold two overcards (AK or AQ the very most likely) here for one bet, heads up, in a 9 Big Bet pot. In fact, he'd be wrong (according to FTOP) for doing so.

Now, I understand, I want to charge drawing hands to draw. But I was so unsure what to do if checkraised. Against many opponents, I'd be able to muck without a second thought to a checkraise, but not necessarily against this guy.

So, I checked, because I'm a wimp. Oh, and I knew he'd bluff the river with a miss, so I was going to call a bet on the river no matter what, and likely gain a bet here if he raised UTG with A6s or some such.

Comments on my turn check? (Also, on my flop raise...would you wait till the turn? I wouldn't, but some might....)

Thanks.

Josh

[Josh W]

Well, the river was a Ten, giving me a full house. He bet out nearly blind after I checked the turn. I raised, he threebet after a fair amount of thought, and I fourbet. He said "you've got a 5?" and mucked. I'm somewhat confident he had AK or some similar hand. He's one of very few players I know who will threebet bluff the river, and likely only against me, because he knows I'll bluff raise the river (and will also bluff threebet the river). I showed my hand, just so he could then say something like "I had kings" to save face, not be embarrassed, and not leave.

I left shortly thereafter, though. I was going to go to Hardtimes to play pool with Duke, but decided against it as they were closing soon, and I wanted to get home to eat some leftovers.

It was good, yum.

Josh

[rtrombone]

Your turn check was clearly correct since you admitted that you wouldn't know what to do if you got check-raised. You had position and chose to make use of it.

I'm not sure what I would have done in your shoes. I think I would have 3-bet the flop, though, in an attempt to get it 4-handed. Notice that 3-betting the flop also makes your post-flop play easier. When you 3-bet pre-flop (after two cold callers, no less) and raise the flop, it makes it harder for a guy to check-raise you with just AK. As the hand went down, you could have had something like 88, which UTG may have tried to get you to lay down when the 9 hit.

By the way, UTG wasn't a loud cuban guy with glasses, was he? I think his name is Curt; I've played with him a lot. Loose, aggressive but lucky as f*ck. He's the one who was to my immediate left in a Hollywood Park 20-40 and cold called my pre-flop raise with 33. My KK got slaughtered when the flop came 332.

[J_V]

Your main problem is not knowing what to do....that's the main problem of most poker players. The important lesson here is to figure out a way to know what to do next time. Maybe watch this player more...however you do it...if you wanna be great you have to have answers to these questions or know where to get the answers. I think betting is a better play.

[Louie Landale]

Its close whether you have the best hand. You are heads-up. The opponent isn't going to fold. You can easily not have a pair at this time. You don't know what to do if he raises. He's likely to bluff next round if you check, or even bet "for value" a lesser hand like AK. If you are EVER going to check a likely "best hand" to encouarge a river bluff, this looks like the perfect time to me.

Don't show your hand like that. If he accuses you of having a 5 just agree and claim you filled up on the turn; someone may believe you jumped a raise with 95.

In this loos-ish game, this is the perfect player to get to leave.

- Louie

[Bolivia]

You played that hand like a little swedish girl in ponytails. Haven't you learned anything from getting slammed when I'm at the table with you. MAKE THEM PAY ON THE TURN!!!!! If he's got you beat so be it. If he calls the turn then bet the river. You said yourself, he's ultra loose guy so more often than not you're picking up bets from him when you have the best of it when you bet the turn. On rare occasions he'll have you beat (only 4 hands, unless he's silly enough to raise A5 or 56s in early). There's plenty of hands he could be just calling with.

If he checkraises, I might even be inclined to three bet him (unless he percieves me as too-aggressive). You have to pay him off on the river anyway (you said he can be over-aggresive) so just chuck the chips in on the turn. He can't sanely re-raise (4 bet) unless he's got a five or a fullhouse. If he calls NOW you can assume you might be beat and you can check the river. In the long run it'll pay off.

But then again what do I know?? I'm always the guy donating racks in the games anyway......

[elysium]

hi josh
very good post. the turn check down,......hmmmm. it's close but your description of this opponent as being aggressive-ish means that he would likely check-raise the flop with an over-pair. he's not sophisticated enough to be able to check-call his over-pair. he'd just never do that.

what it looks like to me is that he's on a draw, but i don't see a draw on board. he's probably drawing to AT. yea josh,here you must bet the turn. now if this were a solid tight opponent, then i like the turn check down.

[D.J.]

What are you doing? Quit being a taco. He's going to call with overcards anyway, bet your hand, if he check-raises, 3-bet, then he'll be afraid you have a 5 and check the river in which case you can check behind if you want. Do I need to come out of retirement to sit at your table now?

-D.J.

[D.J.]

2 words, [censored] KURT.
That's all sorry,

-D.J.

[Josh W]

I said he was loose and aggressive. I never said he was a bloody fool. I called an UTG raise. I don't have a 5. I'm not DJ, afterall.

If I threebet, he'd cap (correctly) w/ AA and KK, the two hands I fear the most.

That said, I think that betting is maybe a little bit correct (not by very much at all). If he checkraises, I think it's wrong to have my mind made up ahead of time as to how I should play it. I'm a card reader first and foremost. I should take the info he gives me (based on how he raises) to determine my move.

You didn't retire. You were fired. Subtle difference....

J

[anatta]

[ QUOTE ]
I should take the info he gives me (based on how he raises) to determine my move.


[/ QUOTE ]

Is sounds like you would trust your read to fold here if he bet in a certain way. That's pretty impressive. Lately, I have been trying more to watch for tells, but I have just started. Are you looking at if he raises in an intimidating way he is weak, and if he is disinterested he is strong, or is this something you just feel and is player specific?

[Pot-A]

if you know he'd cap with AA and KK only, why don't you bet and raise the turn? You're out three bets, same as getting check-raised and calling the river. If he makes it four, you can chuck your hand.

If you check behind him and he checks to you on the river, then what will you do?